wednesday update

SHORT TERM: reversal Wednesday, DOW +154

Overnight the Asian markets were mixed. Europe opened lower but gained 0.8%. US index futures were higher overnight, and the market opened one point above yesterday’s SPX 1983 close. After an uptick to SPX 1986 the market started to pullback again. At 10am New home sales hit their highest level in 6 years: 504k v 412k. The pullback continued until about 10:30 when the SPX hit exactly 1979. Then the market started to rally. The rally continued for the rest of the day, with only one three point reversal, as the market hit SPX 2000 by 3:30. Then a dip into the close ended the day at SPX 1998.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.85%, and the NDX/NAZ were +1.05%. Bonds lost 8 ticks, Crude rose $1.45, Gold slipped $6, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 1973 and 1956 pivots, with resistance at the 2019 and 2070 pivots. Tomorrow: weekly Jobless claims and Durable goods at 8:30.

The market opened higher today, then pulled back to exactly last Tuesday’s SPX 1979 low. The irregular flat we had been tracking: 1979-2019-1979, appeared in place and we marked a tentative Minor wave 2 label at that low. The market then had its first reversal rally since the 40 point decline began. This irregular flat looks like the one in the SPX in mid-May. Then when the market crossed the hourly EMA’s we updated the tentative label to a dark blue Minor wave 2. After a hard down Minute wave C, the market now has a chance to kickoff Minor wave 3. The key level to watch now is SPX 1979 and the OEW 1973 pivot range. If the market heads back to that level and breaks that pivot, probabilities increase that Primary IV is underway. Short term support is at the 1973 and 1956 pivots, with resistance at the 2019 and 2070 pivots. Short term momentum hit quite overbought today. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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320 Responses to wednesday update

  1. oneandonlyuniverse says:

    Man proposes
    God disposes

    oneandonlyuniverse says:
    September 25, 2014 at 10:26 am
    i see $spx getting back close to spx$1991 today early or fri a.m. ….and me buying more $baba
    No worries 2027.74 on the come

    “So nothing is ever good or bad unless you think it so, and vice versa. All luck is good luck to the man who bears it with equanimity”

    “There is no training — classroom or otherwise — that can prepare for trading the last third of a move, whether it’s the end of a bull market or the end of a bear market. There’s typically no logic to it; irrationality reigns supreme, and no class can teach what to do during that brief, volatile reign.”

    CN (@Cygnet_Noir) says:
    September 25, 2014 at 10:59 am
    I’m looking for SPX to trade 1946.xx today or Friday AM.

    oneandonlyuniverse says:
    September 25, 2014 at 12:33 pm
    need to adjust target $1985 -88 but 91 is def in play

  2. CB says:

    wow, R2K outperforming SPX today, is that right…nice =)

  3. IMO The decline from 2019 looks and feels similar to the decline that start on July 24th

  4. uncle10 says:

    I think being short copper is a good probability, pretty low risk, and good return place to have some money allocated to. The trend is down. Its been hanging around $3 for a long time. If it breaks down could have a nice move. I have a position. gl

  5. rabbittrader1 says:

    CYCLES of WAR, STOCK MARKET CYCLES etc. READ THE BOOK CYCLES, by EDWARD DEWEy, (who invented the Dewey DECIMAL SYSTEM. PUBLISHED IN 1971. with this and ELLIOT wave AND A LITTLE EXPERIENCE, you will be ahead of the GAME.There is only one TRUTH !

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