friday update

SHORT TERM: gap up opening fades, DOW +14

Overnight Scotland rejected independence. Asian markets rallied 0.7%. European markets opened much higher but faded to +0.1% at the close. The market gapped up at the opening to SPX 2018, ticked up to 2019, and then began to pullback. The SPX had closed at 2011 yesterday. At 10am Leading indicators were reported higher: +0.2% v +0.9%. The pullback continued until about 1:30 when the SPX hit 2007. Then after as a rally to SPX 2014 by 3:30 the market pulled back to close at 2011.

For the day the SPX/DOW were mixed, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.20%. Bonds gained 10 ticks, Crude slipped 20 cents, Gold dropped $7, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 1973 and 1956 pivots, with resistance at the 2019 and 2070 pivots. Last night the FED reported an increase in the Monetary base: $4.150tn v $4.084tn. Today the WLEI was reported higher: 52.1% v 51.7%.

The market gapped up at the open today, hit the 2019 pivot exactly, then pulled back to SPX 2007. The market has now rallied from SPX 1979 on Tuesday to 2019 on Friday. Quite a run in such a short period. The negative hourly divergence finally kicked in at the pivot, and it appears we just completed Minute wave i of Minor 3. Minute wave i of Minor 1 was 40 points as well. We would now like to see short term momentum get oversold to confirm. It certainly has been a wild week. Short term support is at SPX 2000 and SPX 1993, with resistance at the 2019 and 2070 pivots. Short term momentum ended the week at neutral. Best to your weekend!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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37 Responses to friday update

  1. mrgreen2010 says:

    My 2c…market internals really degraded this week. This is showing as narrowing participation on up days. Note the INDU (+1.7%); SP(1.2%) NYA(+0.7%) NDX (+0.7%) COMP (0.3%) RUT (-1.2%) and most respective BullishPercent indices declined this week. If the Dow attempts to rally more while the other indices are weak or negative.and then the dow closes negative..that is a strong signal to go full short regardless of wave counts IMO. I never count on wave V’s to complete as they often don’t. Considereing how this market has extended counts the past year I expect PIII is done and so expect a truncation of v of v of PIII. Regardless of what the waves say, the markets are telling me that a real top of significance is near if not already made. Internals must improve (unlikey if we are really in a wave 5) or price must correct. This is why my longer term puts (purchased last week) maintained value this week while the market went up and in spite of time decay. The MOMO stocks are starting to take it on the chin. On any rally failure next week I will be looking to add medium term (2-3 weeks out) QQQ puts next week while volatility is still low.

  2. Greenlander says:

    Made the switch from long to short today. Never one to take much account into seasonality or previous trends due to location in calendar but it did tip my shifting a bit more bearish.

  3. gasman88 says:

    Just a thought: gold and miners are getting slammed, oversold big time on all time frames. In the meantime we are seeing all kinds of divergences in the indices, possibly a topping process.
    Could be be very close to a meaningful reversal. During Jan market sell off gold did very well….

  4. weekly trades says:

    Weekly: We have been working on v of 5 of a wave that started in June 2013
    Daily: After wave iv that took almost 2 weeks to work out, we entered into v on 9/16/2014
    Hourly: On the 1-Hour chart we see that wave v completed today (also seen in the 2-Hour charts)
    Next: A daily close below the low of Aug 7 will confirm the down trend.

  5. blackjak100 says:


    I know you’ve been right most if the time with adjustments along the way. I’m struggling to see how a minor third wave could be unfolding with such an NYAD divergence, a HO Omen signal yesterday, and a major ebolla outbreak. Still Have to check and see if another HO signal fired off today. There are no rules regarding a third wave, but I agree with Ryan Parker in that something isn’t right.

    • chrisk44342 says:

      The guy who created HOs makes the specious claim that they precede every crash. Perhaps they do, but they also seem to precede every non crash as well. Not very ominous if you ask me. This is curve fitting at its finest.

      • blackjak100 says:

        Chris you have it wrong once again. The guy never proclaimed anything. It’s a fact that a HO signal has preceded every crash. This doesn’t mean there will be a crash as there’s been plenty of HO signals without crashes. It simply means take caution. We need to get a second signal for confirmation and I haven’t checked yesterday yet.

  6. Gary Lewis says:

    After an “un-BEAR-able” week, my topping set-up, a three-week test of the high still remains a possibility. SPY high is 201.11. As it closed at 200.70, it would need to be a muted week next week. Quite possible after this event-filled week. It’s really difficult to continue holding my bearish posture, especially after some heavy-duty bear-slamming by one of our fellow contributors. But none of my short term indicators are strengthening and my weekly view shows a topping formation possible. Well, being a Bear fan has rarely been easy, as any Chicagoan knows. Hope you all made gobs and gobs of money this week. Spend lavishly this weekend. Life is too short and gains are too often quickly lost.

  7. CygnetNoir says:

    Thanks Tony. I don’t know how some of these characters find you, but you always seem to have a fresh crew of cranks show up to replace the last batch of cranks who finally moved on. SPX 2013 finally traded today, so the weekly Big Up from week of 8/8 set up week has reached its minimum target. The minimum expectation of the daily Big Up from 9/10 (SPX)& 9/15 (DOW) set ups was SPX 2019, and that traded today, so both Big Ups of recent vintage have fulfilled themselves. That doesn’t mean that they are spent, but it does mean that the market owes no more than it has given. There is now a daily Big Down set up on the SPX and NDX, but the not the Dow. Big Down set ups during bull markets are generally high risk, disappointing affairs except during primary wave 2 and primary wave 4 corrections. The Dow hit its minimum target as well, and its secondary target is 17970. So what’s a trader to do? Well, I closed my long ES and NQ’s today, and bought myself some out o’ the money DIA calls for October &November OPEX. They were real tough to buy, and I couldn’t get them to sell me as many as I was trying to buy at the price I was bidding for them, which usually means I’m right 🙂 … though not always :O

    • tony caldaro says:

      GL CN, and thanks for posting those good calls for everyone to see

    • Be nice, Dirty Bird says:

      The site is a pleasing melange of new cranks and old cranks. And you are the most special crank of them all. The Elliott Wave Lives without good old CN would be like the Beatles without Pete Best.

  8. scottycj1 says:

    2 Special reports late Sunday afternoon 1) 10,000 to a million trade and 2) Is next week the top of this bull market ? 1) is in the commodity section and 2) is in the Index section. 30 dayTrial Memberships are just $5 for each section.

  9. syedsma says:

    Hi Tony,

    Wanted to get your confirmation on the count for my understanding – please help.

    On the “$COMPQ-Daily” chart (;), the count suggest that we have completed “minor 2” and now we are in:
    “minor 3” of “Intermediate i” of “major 5” of “Primary III”.

    On the “$SPX-60 min” chart (;), the count suggests we have completed “minute 1” and are either in:
    “minute 2” or “minute 3” of “minor 3” of “intermediate v” of “major 5” of “Primary III”.

    On the “$INDU-Daily” chart (;), the count suggests we have “minor 2” and now we are in:
    “minor 3” of “intermediate iii” of “major 5” of “Primary III”

    Please correct me if my understanding of your OEW counts is incorrect.

    Since $COMPQ has a long way to go to complete PIII, do you think we can have PRIMARY IV in $SPX and $INDU while growth sector is marching its way higher? With all this collaboration between central banks, I have a feeling that these low interest rates are here to stay for a very long time. Who knows if US Central Bank will again start QE once ECB has completed its turn of running the printing press.

    With such a low yield environment for fixed income investments, the investors may continue to invest in risky assets thereby extending the bull markets for a few more years.

    Thanks for reading this long post. Would appreciate if you can respond.

    Thanks …

    • tony caldaro says:

      If you show your face I’ll give you the answers … just joking.
      NAZ … Minor 3 of Major 5
      SPX … correct
      DOW … correct on the daily chart
      No they should top around the same time. Your count was off in the NAZ.
      FED do more QE? Unlikely with the economy growing and unemployment declining.
      An 8 year bull market can not be ruled out.

  10. Hi,thanks Tony,dow reached the upper side of that possible wedge in magenta,but i’m still considering valid the ascending triangle too,at this point in doubt that the theoretical target can be reached,thanks

  11. CB says:

    Thanks Tony. Looks like this breakout has stalled a bit.
    And a question, Tony: you are showing investors bullish at 57.3 %. Historically, how extereme is that number?…whenever you have some time, please. Thank you.

    • tony caldaro says:

      It usually tops at 60%, rare occasions 70% like 1999.
      Has not gone higher than 57.5% so far during this bull market

    • CB says:

      Thanks Tony. That’s quite high.. Could use an official confirmation from the yen guy, though ; )
      kjbo, I get my “what was I thinking” moments on a regular basis, however considering who is now on the other side of the trade, we must be getting better every day, don’t you think?.. ; )
      CNBC, for sure, seems to be getting today, after the new highs they put on Carter Worth with his v. bearish qqq call…that’s a nice public service announcement, ins’t it? who syas they’re bullish now ; )…obvioulsy all of us can’t follow his advice right away b/c the market would just explode higher immediately, but that’s another issue…

  12. ariez5 says:

    Hi Tony,
    Thanks as always. Could you address two possible alternate counts in your weekend update?
    1. We just hit b of an irregular minor 2 in SPX?
    2. The Dow just finished a 5th wave ending diagonal that it started in February. 15340-16505-16015-17151-16333-17350.
    It hit its trendline from the Jan and July tops on a pop above the upper BB.
    Major 5 (15340-17350) would be proportionate to Major 1 (10404-12284) on your charts.
    If you count 17151 as Int. C in this Major 5, then E is proportionate to A.

    With the massive divergences in so many indicators, I am keeping my mind open to all 3 counts.

    • tony caldaro says:

      1. possible.
      2. if anything that’s an expanding triangle, needs about another 100 pts. to hit that trend line.
      This market has confused a few some of the time, and many most of the time.

  13. llerias7 says:

    so minute ii should touch 1998?

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