thursday update

SHORT TERM: gap up opening to new high, DOW +109

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.7%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.8%. US index futures were higher overnight. At 8:30 weekly Jobless claims were reported lower: 280k v 315k, Housing starts were reported lower: 956k v 1093k, and Building permits were lower: 998k v 1052k. Then at 8:15 FED chair Yellen’s speech was released: The market gapped up at the open, for the first time in two weeks, to SPX 2008. After a small dip to SPX 2005 it rallied to 2012 just before 11am. At 10am the Philly FED was reported lower: 22.5 v 28.0. After the SPX 2012 high the market entered a 4 point trading range (2008-2012) for the rest of the day, closing at 2011.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.60%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.70%. Bonds lost 11 ticks, Crude dropped $1.25, Gold added $3, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 1973 and 1956 pivots, with resistance at the 2019 and 2070 pivots. Tomorrow: the somewhat interesting Scotland independence vote, Leading indicators 10 am, the much awaited BABA IPO, and it’s OPEX day. This wild fundamental data week draws to a close.

The market gapped up at the open today, dipped a bit, then hit a marginal new all time high. The new high was the signal we had been waiting for to suggest an uptrend extension. At the new high we upgraded the count on the SPX hourly chart from five Minor waves up to SPX 2011, to just Minor waves 1 and 2 complete at SPX 2011 and 1979 with Minor 3 now underway. We had been carrying this count on the SPX daily chart. Minor wave 3 should now unfold in five Minute waves, and the OEW 2070 pivot looks like a good target. Short term support is at SPX 2000 and SPX 1993, with resistance at the 2019 and 2070 pivots. Short term momentum continues to display a negative divergence. Best to your OPEX trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

This entry was posted in Updates and tagged , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

154 Responses to thursday update

  1. wildmick says:

    my friend who works for big oil & travels quite a lot just sent me a msg. short version says:

    “Effective immediately, all non-essential business travel from USA or EU to Russian Federation is deferred until further notice. All essential travel should be approved in advance by VP or higher.”

  2. mrgreen2010 says:

    Technically the market is rready for a huge decline. Divergences all over the place. BP indices flat or down on up days. Weakness in the advance/decline line. But most importantly, the wave structure looks almost complete. When does subdivision give way to truncation? I am surprised my longer term puts in NFLX, PCLN and MU held value this week while my VIX calls got hammered but since I only got 2 I am still holding. I want to see a rollover that pierces some support before I add any new positions. Weekly and daily candles are hanging man on QQQ’s shooting star/Lizard tail on DIA/$indu. We will see next week. OPEX over

  3. wildmick says:

    if this is a minute 2 of a 3 wave, could be abc. a was the down this morning, b has been back up to 2013 area with c wave to come. im using 10 min chart. anyone else see this as a possibility?

    • wildmick says:

      lots of resistance coming into 2019 pivot area. has been retrace of 50% from todays low. hmm.

    • zvyezda says:

      WM, yes, looking at that as well, but looking at the futures last night’s high to decide where to enter a short. I’m not biting until its higher, say around 2016-2017 cash. Since it sold off at the close I may have missed it. Hope you got it. If I get a chance on Monday I’ll
      try it as well.

  4. trondack says:

    Tony, were you able to OEW chart the Nikkei 225 around the 1989-1990 top? Were interest rates very low at that time in Japan? Thanks for the site!

  5. lunker1 says:

    Double top on NASDAQ and Q’s

    • llerias7 says:

      The fact is Tony is and has been on track. We have an extension going on and next month we should see 2070/2080 as a top of minor 3 (of Int.V) !! Afterwards a thksgiving rally up to 2100´s…get an oxygen bottle for the highs.
      p.s.I got the same readings from other sources that confirms the (unthinkable) levels…

    • will we see a decline?? thanks lunker

      • lunker1 says:

        Just some advice to you. Looking to all the different people on this blog for advice is not a good sign for you. You seem to be hanging on everyone’s last word. No one has a crystal ball and it seems you’re looking to the correct answer when there isn’t one. Take as step back. You need to trade with your rules. To me it sounds like you are short but worried. Emotions are not part of this game. If you are short (or long) then set a mental stop and live by it. Emotions and worry will only cause you problems. You’ll make more mistakes. Good luck.

      • alexhartley1 says:

        I agree Lunker.

        If you’re coming here and you like life simple then do yourself a favour and follow the count offered by Tony. It took me a while (I am an amateur) but I started to do better for myself when I simply followed the count kindly offered by Tony and his crew.

        I think it was Bud that also mentioned being a Primary wave trader (i.e. not worried about all the smaller minor wave moves for e.g.). That’s solid advice in my opinion.

    • hope that you are right tryingtomake a buck

  6. Ryan Parker says:

    Maybe its just me but something doesn’t feel quite right here. Investor’s Intelligence bull/bear ratio is still near record levels. Public seems totally enamored with Alibaba and the Dow/SPX/Nasdaq hitting new highs. The $NASI and !MCSUMRTOT are both on sell signals and have been for about 2 weeks. The ratio of 52 week highs to lows on the Nasdaq and Wilshire 5000 isn’t looking very good. Plus the horrible relative performance of small and microcaps relative to large caps just seem like a huge red flag to me. Plus momentum stocks have really taken it on the chin this week. Interesting article below from Bloomberg last weekend.

    • MR Parker,
      What do you suggest??

      • Ryan Parker says:

        Caution. Something just doesn’t feel right. Somewhat reminiscent of the top in 2007. Small and microcaps topped in June of that year. Then the rest of the market peaked in October. This year microcaps topped in March, small caps topped in March or July depending on which index you are looking at. When momentum stocks perform poorly that generally is a red flag as well. The internals of the Dow and SPX look ok for the most part. However, once you get out of those two indexes the advance is pretty narrow. More tech/small cap stocks have declined more than 20% from their bull market highs than we saw at the October 2007 peak (see bloomberg link above). Not saying we are going to see a repeat of 2007-2009 but something just doesn’t feel right. I have some long positions but to offset some of my risk I took a pretty nice weighting in the TWM last week at $45.00. Not seeing a whole lot that makes me just want to pounce all over this market and go wildly bullish.

      • Ryan Parker says:

        September/October has also marked a key turning point for the market in 13 of the past 17 years. Just sayin’. If we see a blast off day with solid breadth I will change my tune but this just feels a bit fishy. Maybe its the BABA IPO. Dunno. I just see a lot of caution flags here. Just my opinion.

    • thecustomer14 says:

      It’s not just you – the SPX OEW count in 2011 hit its major 4 bottom on 3/16 and then Primary I peaked on 5/2, about 1.5 months later, after a 3 wave move up. Intermediate 4 bottomed just last month on 8/7, and here we are now in the third wave up from then and awfully close to 1.5 months later. Not making an official PIII top proclamation… just pointing out the similarities thus far.

      • the customer do you think that PIII top may be already hit or the rally will be extended

      • thecustomer14 says:

        Michel, I think that the PIII top for the SPX is very near and if this rally extends it likely has an upside limit of no more than 30 points above today’s high. I’m definitely not interested in taking on any new long positions for a little while.

    • the custumor : can we see a decline soon?

      • thecustomer14 says:

        Primary IV? Who can say when, but one simple observation would be that it seems a safe bet that Primary IV has a lot more room to drop, percentage-wise, from SPX 2019 than Primary III has left to extend.

Comments are closed.