thursday update

SHORT TERM: gap down opening then rebound, DOW -20

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.1%. Europe opened higher but lost 0.3%. US index futures were lower overnight, and at 8:30 weekly Jobless claims were reported higher: 315k v 302k. The market gapped down to SPX 1988 at the open and then rallied back to 1994 by 10am. The SPX had closed at 1996 yesterday. The market pulled back to SPX 1986 by 10:30, and then it started to rally. By 12:30 the SPX hit 1995, pulled back to 1990 by 1:30. At 2pm the Budget deficit displayed some improvment: -$128.7bn v -$147.9bn. Heading into the close the SPX hit 1998 then dipped to a 1997 close.

For the day the SPX/DOW were mixed, and the NDX/NAZ were mixed. Bonds lost 4 ticks, Crude rose $1.55, Gold dropped $8, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 1973 and 1956 pivots, with resistance at the 2019 and 2070 pivots. Tomorrow: Retail sales and Export/Import prices at 8:30, then Consumer sentiment and Business inventories at 10am.

The market gapped down at the open for the second time this week. After a bounce it pulled back to SPX 1986, then rallied to close the gap. During this pullback every rally made a lower high: 2008, 2000, 1997, until today’s 1998. Short term sentiment may have changed, and 1983 (a 23.6% retracement) might have been all we get for the pullback. We can’t be sure until the market makes new highs. But for now today’s SPX 1986 near retest of 1983 may have been it. Short term support is at SPX 1983 and the 1973 pivot, with resistance at 2011 and the 2019 pivot. Short term momentum ended the day above neutral. Best to your friday trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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162 Responses to thursday update

  1. Won’t be surprised to see the 1956 pivot next week. Daily RSI14’s got a long way to fall yet. Just broke below 50.

  2. pooch77 says:

    Rally intto close anyone???

  3. fishonhook says:

    battle around 198.70 . Which way will it break?
    The S and P chart sure looks like a ‘roll over’. All indicators looking down. But they have pulled a rabbit out of this hat before.

  4. I’m still seeing this decline as Minor a unfolding as TZZ (W-X-Y-X-Z), see my post from in “Tuesday’s Update”.
    P3 = 2011
    Minor a (TZZ) unfolding as:
    Minute W = 1990
    Minute X = 2007
    Minute Y = 1983
    Minute X = 1998 (had predicted 1998-2002)
    Minute Z = 1973 pivot (+/- 3 pts)

    see link to chart ……..

    DZZ and TZZ love to ride rising/declining channels. predicting Minor B (1996 +/-5???)rally too start Tuesday/Wednesday of next week rallying into Alibaba IPO

  5. bossaenovae says:

    Whoever said here yesterday that Tony’s 1997 line in the sand was a cheap short – good call.

  6. Gary Lewis says:

    Lightening up on the SPY shorts in anticipation of a possible rally back to the 20 day moving average at 199.65. Even a close at 199.33 would indicate a bounce is coming.

  7. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony
    3 Wave structures overlap ~ 5 Waves don’t 😉

  8. Lee X says:

    I got a feeling a lot of people are just guessing with SPX so please no chest thumping when the coin flip goes your way and no sulking when it doesn’t 😉
    have a great weekend !

  9. rc1269 says:

    well, this down move looks a little impulsive. fwiw

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