wednesday update

SHORT TERM: pullback then rally, DOW +55

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.8%. Europe opened lower but finished mixed. US index futures were higher overnight, and the market opened two points above yesterday’s SPX 1988 close. In the opening minutes the SPX ticked up to 1991 and then started to pullback. At 10am Wholesale inventories were reported higher: +0.1% v +0.3%. At 10:30 the SPX hit 1983 and then started to rally. The rally continued into latr afternoon when the SPX hit 1997. Then a dip ended the day at SPX 1996.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.35%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.80%. Bonds lost 8 ticks, Crude dropped 90 cents, Gold fell $6, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 1973 and 1956 pivots, with resistance at the 2019 and 2070 pivots. Tomorrow: weekly Jobless claims at 8:30, then the Budget deficit at 2pm.

The market opened higher today, then made a lower low for the pullback at SPX 1983. The market has now pulled back 28 points from the SPX 2011 high, which is a bit more than a 23.6% retracement (1986). This appears to be somewhat small to label the pullback complete. The time element looks good, 4 days, but not the price. In addition it is a bit tough to count: 1990-2008-1991-2000-1983 and now 1997. Quite choppy with no clear pattern. While the market did come within three points of the 1973 pivot range, we think a lower low would have/will fit better. Short term momentum rose from oversold to above neutral. Short term support is now at SPX 1983 and the 1973 pivot, with resistance at SPX 2011 and the 2019 pivot. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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152 Responses to wednesday update

  1. fishonhook says:

    Tony – care to share your gut feeling on all this choppy action?

  2. Gary Lewis says:

    Not much of a leg down. We just completed a successful three day test of the high yesterday but now, it appears to be setting up for a three day test of Tuesday’s low tomorrow. If we hold 199.32 on SPY tomorrow, then I would be inclined to go long. But as everyone is observing, pretty choppy.

    • Gary Lewis says:

      If we close at the current level, slightly above 200 (SPY), then if it were to close at 199.64 tomorrow, that would be a successful 3-day test, resting right on the 20 day average. That would be pretty bullish. I’ll have to look at the weekly numbers to get additional insight. Then again, we might make new lows making this discussion moot.

  3. soulsurfer says:

    A very special day today, I am sure we all remember what we were doing and where we were 13 years ago, I sure do. I was on my way to an international windsurf contest in Denmark.

    Let’s leave the scribbles for what they are for one little moment and remember for one little moment those who died. May their souls rest in peace.

    • tony caldaro says:

      thx Soul
      was 5 miles away when it occurred

      • oneandonlyuniverse says:

        15 blocks away. 2nd plane hit ran downstairs got cab on Madison( told him going to bronx, he didn’t want to do it). Definitely one of last cabs over Madison ave bridge.The cab driver had no idea what was possibly going on. Got on the Deegan and watched the smoke bellowing out of towers. At that point, I told him what was possibly going on and pleaded with him to take me to Greenwich not the Bronx. He was psyched because he lived in lower Weschester. Terrible day but it got better when I made it home to be with my family.
        Peace to all

      • tony caldaro says:

        greenwich, conn?
        certainly was an event, and everyone in NYC was freaked out

      • oneandonlyuniverse says:

        24 yrs in Manhattan and Greenwich CT

      • soulsurfer says:

        wow. i can’t even imagine how that must have felt.

      • Sept 11 was tough for everybody especially all of us who lived in NY and had family and friends who worked in the towers. Lost some very close friends and neighbors who worked at Cantor Fitzgerald.

      • uncle10 says:

        I had been doing well shorting for the prior year or so and was waaay over confident. I was fully leveraged short including a big short in the airlines and casinos. Very strange making such unexpected specular gains from a horrible event. I promised myself that when I got to my number I would stop trading full time and use my time to try to make a difference. Well, I didn’t quite get to my number…. and ended up losing most of it over the next year. Moral of the story: Don’t wait! Do it now.

      • 16golfer says:

        I was watching CNBC as the first plane hit….sold out of all positions at 8:00 when pre-market opened for trading. Market closed and didn’t open up until the next Monday. Dow went down 1000 points from there where it bounced into year end.

      • jparkins10 says:

        TT!, I sold my 37′ Intrepid with triple 200 Yamaha’s in July of that year, as I was leaving Hilton Head to go full-time in London, to a senior Cantor executive, who’d wanted to have one of these for a long time.
        I was sitting in my living room in London on that day watching the events on CNN, sadly, he was one of the unfortunates. As it was shipped up to Long Island, I’ve always hoped that he was able to take it out a few times before that horrible day.

    • Lee X says:

      CME trading floor sitting at a table in the east break room staring at Sears Tower 1 block away wondering if we were next.

      • Lee X says:

        Little bit, but my deepest sympathy and respect goes to you New Yorkers Never forget

      • CB says:

        well said, Lee. What a terrible thing for all the folks IN NYC to have to go through. We were getting ready to fly out of ORD that day.. started watching it on TV near our gate and the bar owner wasn’t too happy that people whe weren’t customers were watching “his” TV/.. What a …

      • 16golfer says:

        I think there was a lot of speculation, Lee, about Chicago getting hit. ISIS may save that for the next big one unless we can put them out of business. It’s insane….the Shia and Sunni have been fighting since 632AD I think….It’s all Cain and Abel’s fault. lol

  4. fishonhook says:

    Choppy last few days
    Keep getting stopped on shorts
    Made a few bucks but it would be nice to ride a good 15 s and p points down one day

  5. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony and all the contributors.
    SPY ~ WPP @ 200.57
    Like CN says, if we close in the upper half of yesterdays range, a Smart Long!
    God Bless America! 🇺🇸

  6. oneandonlyuniverse says:

    Surprised OEW does not track $IBB – that baby could be a big part ( sign ) of top. Looks to me that it can still do a parabolic blow off to 228-232. Would love to see you plot that one.
    P.s. i know you track some bio stock but it is hardly the same thing as tracking this.

  7. magnus1234 says:

    Tony. Probability for the following in your view?

    Minor 4 @ 1983 (allternate with minor 2 and “long” in time). Now minor 5 until minor5=minor1= 2020?

  8. mjtplayer says:

    The bulls are putting up a fight at this SPX 1,990 area, every time we get down to or below 1,990 there’s a surge in buying to rally the market back above. It almost seems like someone or something is holding-up the market, I wonder who that could be……ahem……Fed?

  9. oneandonlyuniverse says:

    At 11:11 for all the numerologist
    see $spx 2027.74/ R2K 1193 next stop – just got long…NG will be a a great buy in next 10 trading days but lower

  10. That is it..Tonight YOUGOV survey results..they are always PRO independence… tomorrow BIG GAP DOWN

  11. afarsid says:

    GPRO’s price action looks like a circle jerk in a dark room…. Can somebody please turn on the light for these people??

  12. Tony – Any chance the gold is still in wave Major b and that Major b has unfolded into a DZZ? For example;

    Major a = 1393
    Subdividing Major b where
    Inter W = 1240 (where Minute a 1277, Minute b 1331)
    Inter X = 1347
    Inter Y unfolded into DZZ ( where Minute w 1281, Minute x 1324, Minute y 1235-30?? about to complete)


    • Really interesting…thanks.

    • alexhartley1 says:

      I think that’s pretty interesting as well. Thank you. Am expecting a reasonable drop after new highs into 19-22nd. Short term a move up should commence later today or tomorrow. As of yet not convinced that the drop after a new high will be PIV but will use Tony’s targets to ascertain that nearer the time.

  13. lbhkinqa says:

    How about

    (a) = 1990
    (b) = 2007
    (c) = 1982 for major or intermediate (A).

    Major or Int. (B) underway. (a) = 1996………..

  14. Tony,
    By your post it seems you feel that Pri III is going to extend. Is this the case? Thank you.

  15. soulsurfer says:

    just wanted to point out that all techicals, except the daily RSI5 are pointing down:

    Daily MACD had a sell crossover yesterday
    Weekly MACD has still not produced a buy crossover
    Daily and weekly FSTOs point down
    Parabolic SAR is now above price
    My buy/sell indicator is also on a sell both on a daily and weekly time-frame.

    Of course price is the final arbiter, but it seems all these indicators would like to see a lower price first.

  16. cmparis says:

    Tony – Big change on your AAPL chart – what changed your mind? TIA

  17. CygnetNoir says:

    Big Ups are set up across the board. Long trigger is trade above today’s highs and confirms with a higher close in the upper half of tomorrow’s range. Good Times!

  18. Hi Tony,
    Tonight’s speech could be the catalyst. Besides, the dollar’s soaring, commodities are plunging, and we are going to war. Sounds like a recipe for P4 to me. Thanks again Tony.

  19. pcskier says:

    $nikk just rallied up, The yen is getting close to it’s previous low at 107.15, it’s around 106.85. The yen falling is bullish for risk or has been in the past. Seems like a bid is due for the week yen. maybe double top tonight and follow thru bid tomorrow. $tnx will start running into resistance from now till. 25.75. If it breaks above resistance like the $usd broke above resistance. Tepper call will have some legs. I don’t have a crystal ball, some times I get lucky connecting dots, I was scary lucky in 08/09 Everyone on this board enjoys the game. I’m just not afraid to call it like I see it, my skin is thick. With all the coincidence I’ve been noticing i really hope I have too much time on my hands and I have an active imagination.

    • 16golfer says:

      I figure they will pin the index at 2001 in memory of 9/11/2001 tomorrow

    • Hi Pcskier,
      Hey keep on posting, ok? Differences of opinion and perspective are what makes the blog great.
      I agree with you that the universe is much more complex than we can possibly imagine and in many ways beyond our understanding. I like to look for patterns in things too. Maybe most of them don’t pan out, but once in awhile they do. And realizing you found one is a great feeling.

      Reminds me of Ruth Montgomery’s books from years back. They got me thinking when I read them as a teenager. I had an insight back then that the universe is vastly older than we are and whatever intelligence exists in or outside this universe would work in ways that are simply beyond what we can know at this stage of our existence (which from their point of view must appear so very primitive). Funny how we as a race try and nail down the absolute truth to things, as if we know everything there is to know about everything that exists, as if the truth were a static thing. Would the most advanced beings in the universe know everything (or anything!) about what goes on beyond it? Perhaps not, and they may be billions of years more advanced than us. Simply beyond our comprehension.

      So don’t stop looking for patterns, ok? You may find some. If you do, please share them with us. I will too.

      • pcskier says:


      • torehund says:

        Agree Twosided, normally if a major impulse is triggered toward a pattern, there is something to it, the timing is just difficult to acertain even if one tries to build in delays. And in Our inherent greed of snatching it in front of others, we oftenmost dont wait until the worst of worst of counts have played themself out.
        Waiting for the fundamentals to play out alongside the expected pattern takes an enormous amount of discipline pluss skill and experience. Most often one has to pay With a grueling period of waiting and relentless doubts.
        If we didnt endure that process, the most optimistic count may just have played itself out ;and we would miss the major move altogether.
        Like in the physics experiment With Electrons traveling toward a wall, it makes a difference whether or not one actually is observing the phenomenon ( particle going in straight line if we observe it, and choosing wave behavior if we dont observe it). Analog to the market we make a difference to the pattern by Our participation or by not participating. I have just accepted this feat of nature, but anyhow; its better to buy a Stock at 3 usd than at 300, even if it goes underwater for some time. Looking back it hasnt been the entrance points that have been the major problem, its the Ability to sit, as always. We can bever be too good at sitting.

      • Tore,
        I hear ya. I’ve found that keeping two incompatible but possible ideas in my head at once, controlled cognitive dissonance perhaps, has been something that took me years to develop, and I’m still learning. (For example, market makes a major low and goes up. is it a C Wave or a Wave 3? Well, until it picks a direction it’s both!) Both ideas have to exist in real time at the same time. They both have reality. The variable that determines our results is us, not the market. Going with the flow and not being attached to any particular outcome. It’s both unnatural and the most natural way of being, both at once.

        What a great learning opportunity trading provides! I enjoy the way Tony keeps the possibilities open and presents them all at once. They all exist in reality at the same time until someone observes them. I think some people read his updates and get frustrated because they don’t quite grasp this. I’m grateful to have the opportunity to observe them along with many people here.

      • torehund says:

        Twosided, its a good option always to keep two opposing counts going. Another is to be extremely pessimistic looking for the macd Crosses(they love to extend) and check the rsi wave count too. It Depends also on Your portifolio, if size is big its difficult to at all times be familiar every one of the patterns.
        Tonys blog is invaluable and we have a good bunch of guys right know that uses lots of dedicated time, sharing opinions. I have tried to be off the grid surfing and being invested, it just doesnt work, you have to live With the market. As I play the large scale patterns, smaller swings Within them hurt a bit, but I dont jump in and out as the variability on smaller scale is just to great on these nanos.

      • tony caldaro says:

        Going with the flow and not being attached to any particular outcome.

  20. torehund says:

    Thanks Tony !

    (Pico) alt (o) count, Dont wipe out.

  21. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony
    The market will move depending on which direction Obama leans on the podium. 😉
    And yes this is sarcasm, not some code from the machines. LOL

  22. FiveStars says:

    Tony, Thank you for the update.

  23. mjtplayer says:

    A nice little downtrend channel has formed in the SPX, pull-up a 5 day chart on a 5-min. From the lows on 9/4 & 9/5 to the high on 9/5 close and 9/8 open, then the low late yesterday and this morning to the high at the close. 2 options:

    1) minute a, b, c to complete minor a this morning and rally this afternoon to minor b


    2) minute a, b, c this morning, d at today’s close and a drop in minute e to finish minor a tomorrow/Friday?

  24. oneandonlyuniverse says:

    Be Careful – I got a heads up in 2012 from a person, let’s just say he is “connected.” Well, this person let me in on a secret that the market is going to crash in fall 2014. It turns out, that the Girl Scouts of America , Kiwanis , 4-H , and AAA have a ” super computer ” that will crash the market soon .
    The rumor is they are going to crash it when it hits 2020 just to be cruel to the world .
    Everyone will say it was so obvious looking back . You know everyone has 20/20 hindsight.

    P.S. Rabbittrader1 , you don’t know Louis Bacon. Hate to blow your act.


    STOP GAIN 94,23
    STOP LOSS 90,53

  26. Schlumberger
    Purchase Order 104,31
    Stop Gain 108,63
    Stop Loss 103,50

  27. pcskier says:

    Spx HOD..

    • lunker1 says:

      It’s a sign! It’s a sign!

      Of what?! 😀

      • pcskier says:

        You will find out on a deeper meaning. But at the least it was a reversal pivot. I not trading chips are placed.

      • lunker1 says:

        Was that code too?
        I’m new to this.

      • pcskier says:

        I can’t help it, HOD 1996.66 hit @ 3:18 eastern time, 3*X=18. I am pulling your leg Lunker. Enjoy!!

      • pcskier says:

        We will all find out what happens “if” it happens or if there is a deeper meaning or not. Lunker if we met we would be friends. The only CODE i live by is treat people with respect, look everyone in the eyes, smile and say high, Basic Karma principles. Giving is receiving the more you give the more you receive. The other CODE stuff is just a theory.
        Have a good night and a good day tomorrow.

      • joecthetruthteller says:

        RED line in SPX = 1958

      • pcskier says:

        I have been listening to Dylan song Baby BLUE and looking at the lyrics i ran into the article below today, but even i am not that doom and gloom, but i will stock up on food, rather be hedge than not. The human conscious is a little worried right now that is all i know. But as tony says fear sells, it could just be Garbage in and Garbage out from the media

      • lunker1 says:

        Have a good one pc.

        Now what did those letters add up to? 😉

      • Thanks for the info, good stuff. I am confused on the second to last paragraph. If 2007 isn’t reached you would expect 3 weeks of testing the highs? Or something to that effect

        Appears most believe we will drop to 1973. It’s after that which causes uncertainty. Do we drop to 1959. If so, I would expect a bounce. Then things get really interesting.

      • Gary Lewis says:

        Make a buck, check out the weekly structure of SPX at the end of June for a typical three week test of the high. On July 3, SPX closed at 1985, it then dropped to 1967 then climbed back up for the next two weeks to do the 3 week test of the high on July 25. SPX failed the test, rising only to 1978.34. The next week, SPX tanked. I notice this three period test both on the highs and lows in every time frame. I’m sure that it has some EW significance like a truncated fifth or something, but I am just learning EW.

      • Gary Lewis says:

        there’s also a nice 3 week test of the high in Mid December ’13. It also failed and led to the Jan-Feb ’14 decline in SPX.

    • 16golfer says:

      pcskier….wonder what all those Apple 6 phone users/addicts with their credit/money stored in them will do if those Solar flares take out the cell towers? No more Starbucks could cause a revolt…:-)

  28. Hi Tony

    When I look at your SPX chart it looks like your primary count is that the 5 waves up is done at 2011 and Primary III completed. I know you also said a move below 1905 will confirm Primary IV , but you dont make a green ‘tentative’ label if this is your main count for now?

    Thanks for everything !

  29. bouraq says:

    Supports found:

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