SHORT TERM: pullback then rally, DOW +55
Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.8%. Europe opened lower but finished mixed. US index futures were higher overnight, and the market opened two points above yesterday’s SPX 1988 close. In the opening minutes the SPX ticked up to 1991 and then started to pullback. At 10am Wholesale inventories were reported higher: +0.1% v +0.3%. At 10:30 the SPX hit 1983 and then started to rally. The rally continued into latr afternoon when the SPX hit 1997. Then a dip ended the day at SPX 1996.
For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.35%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.80%. Bonds lost 8 ticks, Crude dropped 90 cents, Gold fell $6, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 1973 and 1956 pivots, with resistance at the 2019 and 2070 pivots. Tomorrow: weekly Jobless claims at 8:30, then the Budget deficit at 2pm.
The market opened higher today, then made a lower low for the pullback at SPX 1983. The market has now pulled back 28 points from the SPX 2011 high, which is a bit more than a 23.6% retracement (1986). This appears to be somewhat small to label the pullback complete. The time element looks good, 4 days, but not the price. In addition it is a bit tough to count: 1990-2008-1991-2000-1983 and now 1997. Quite choppy with no clear pattern. While the market did come within three points of the 1973 pivot range, we think a lower low would have/will fit better. Short term momentum rose from oversold to above neutral. Short term support is now at SPX 1983 and the 1973 pivot, with resistance at SPX 2011 and the 2019 pivot. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend
LONG TERM: bull market