tuesday update

SHORT TERM: gap down opening, DOW -98

Overnight the Asian markets ended mixed. Europe opened lower and lost 0.4%. US index futures were lower overnight, and the market gapped down to SPX 1997 at the open. The SPX had closed at 2002 yesterday. At 10am FED governor Tarullo gave his senate testimony: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/testimony/tarullo20140909a.htm. At 10:30 the SPX hit 1991, displayed a very slight positive divergence, and tried to rally. By 11:30 the SPX hit 1997. Then after a pullback to SPX 1992 by 1pm, the AAPL presentation started and the market rallied to 2000 by 2pm. Then it started to pullback again. Around 3:30 the SPX hit 1985, then bounced to close at 1988.

For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.60%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.85%. Bonds lost 10 ticks, Crude added 5 cents, Gold gained $2, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 1973 and 1956 pivots, with resistance at the 2019 and 2070 pivots. Tomorrow: Wholesale inventories at 10am.

The market gapped down at the open for the first time in nearly two weeks. The pullback found support around the SPX 1990 area again, and the market rallied back to 2000. In late afternoon the SPX broke below the 1990 level, which had been support for more than two weeks. The five waves up count, from SPX 1905 to 2011, appears to be confirmed. The market looks like it will test the OEW 1973 pivot range next. Pullbacks, during uptrends, have typically taken 3-5 days. This is day three.

Short term support is at the 1973 and 1956 pivots, with resistance at SPX 2011 and the 2019 pivot. Short term momentum ended the day oversold. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

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146 Responses to tuesday update

  1. CB says:

    Nice call on that 2011 high, Tony! Thanks for all your hard work & help with the charts.

  2. mrgreen2010 says:

    Well this day is a bust. My cheap QQQ puts are now lottery tickets (funny I say that as even a 2% move the next two days they become Breakeven $70 to InTheMoney) wow low IV I cant contain myself!!!yawn Picked up some cheap NFLX 240 and $RUT 500 DEC puts for a nickel for 10 and a dime for 4. Ya I know spending the big bucks this week 🙂 A 50% haircut for NFLX is not unreasonable if a good downdraft happens and IV is so low. Looking at LNKD like NFLX option premium could go up counteracting time-decay just by nearing their respective earnings dates, just not willing to bet the farm. With low volatilty and slop-chop intrday trading seems pointless. If we ever get 1-2% daily moves or a follow through downdraft ever again….been awhile. Low IV trading is like watching paint dry. So baby steps till then.

  3. pooch77 says:

    Wow look at bears getting toasted.Looks end of P3 is premature

  4. buddyglove says:

    GL to all, but I am at a loss to understand all the bearish sentiment here and I favour Tonys alt count.I am seeing many bull points including :- Bear traps, +/div on hourly fut-14/rsi ,reversal structures at todays lows and a nice Dow handle on a Dow cup.

  5. 16golfer says:

    pcskier….Loved that line out of Casablanca and the other one “Of all the gin joints in the world”

  6. Peter Sliney says:

    I think this move is just trying to knock off over leveraged bears.

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