friday update

SHORT TERM: choppy day, DOW +19

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.1%. Europe opened higher but lost 0.1% too. US index futures were higher overnight. At 8:30 Personal income was reported higher +0.2% v +0.4%, spending lower -0.1% v +0.4%, and the PCE higher: +0.1% v +0.1%. The market opened four points above yesterday’s SPX 1997 close then immediately started to pullback. At 9:45 the Chicago PMI was reported higher: 64.3 v 52.6, and at 10am Consumer sentiment was reported higher: 82.5 v 79.2. The pullback continued until about 10:30 when the SPX hit 1995. Then the market started to rally. At 12:30 the SPX hit 2003, pulled back to 1999 by 3pm, then closed at 2003.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.20%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.45%. Bonds lost 3 ticks, Crude gained $1.30, Gold slipped $2, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 1973 and 1956 pivots, with resistance at the 2019 and 2070 pivots. Today the WLEI was reported lower: 52.3% v 52.8%.

The market opened higher today, dipped to SPX 1995, rallied to 2003, dipped to 1999, then closed at 2003. At the end it was a positive day after all the volatility in Europe. With today’s higher highs it looks like Minor wave 4 ended at SPX 1991 yesterday. We will wait until the SPX hits 2005 before updating that green label to dark blue. Reviewed the major indices during today’s quiet session. Looks like we are fast approaching another inflection point.

Short term support is at SPX 1985 and the 1973 pivot, with resistance at SPX 2005 and the 2019 pivot. Short term momentum ended the day overbought. The short term OEW charts turned positive with the reversal level now SPX 1999. Best to your three day weekend!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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34 Responses to friday update

  1. pcskier says:

    Consumers spending on movie tix are down 15% from last summer~ Must be the weather:). ~ another sign of retail weakness

    • lunker1 says:

      you seem to keep posting the doom to reassure yourself the market should go down. news doesn’t = market moves. the market moves to make money. talking the market down doesn’t work.

      also there’s so much more rich content available at home so going out to the movies is a dying tradition.

      • pcskier says:

        I am full on bearish Lunker. I thought it was interesting article, this and with MCD monthly sales, WMT and target weak guidance for consumers and Cat pathetic equipment numbers for the rest of the world. I believe its a sign of negative divergence or a disconnect from the economy and the stock market. I live with hedge fund managers, movie producer, sports stars and investment bankers. I live in a bubble surrounded by people who have three shifts of nannies, fly private because of their dogs, have personal chefs and museum quality art in their homes. The land of new Bentleys, Ferraris and new trophy homes. My wife and I grew up working class, started a business sold it to a PE firm~ center partners (in my late 30s), retired too young now I am obsessed with the market. My friends I grew up with are working hard to make it week to week. Sorry if I am a compulsive bear, David Tice may be the only person more bearish than me. I am shock that the market got so high with the promise of central banker promise of unlimited QE backstop. I have loss more money than most people make in a life time shorting stocks, crazy. Surrender to the trend and you never lose, use stop losses. exit bad positions and reenter when they head back your way. It’s a learning experience, that is why I am here I am learning from tony like the rest of us. Thanks

      • pcskier says:

        We still love dinner and a movie

    • jeffbalin says:

      I’m in retail and spending is significantly off this year in a lot of categories, like unexpectedly way off, not just movies. Dollar stores too…. Why? If you’re broke you buy cheap I thought. Not sure what’s going on.

  2. fionamargaret says:

    Thanks Tony – hope you have a great weekend.

  3. jeff1student says:

    Hi Tony, what is your time frame with regard to your statement “MEDIUM TERM: uptrend
    LONG TERM: bull market” ?
    Let’s assume the P4 will take us down to say 1,600, and then P5 takes us up to cycle high. But how long will this trip take? In the SC1, we had P3 @ 1553, it took 1 ½ years to get to the bottom of P4 @768, then 2 ½ years to get P5 high @1576. It took almost 4 years to break-even.
    It’s my understanding that medium term is considered between 1-3 years. Now S&P is @ 2,000, can we be sure that in 2017 the S&P will be above 2,000 again?
    Thanks and have nice long weekend!

    • tony caldaro says:

      Medium term = weeks to months
      Long term = months to years
      Those Primary waves were separated by a bear market.
      Nothing is certain in this game.
      P5 will depend on P4.

  4. soulsurfer says:

    for those living in the USofA, enjoy the 3 day weekend if you’re lucky enough to get that day off. I for one will spend some quality time with my kids.

  5. John B says:

    Thanks Tony,would like to hear what you see tomorrow,looking like a nested 12

  6. Thanks, Tony! Have a super weekend!

  7. Thanks Tony!
    The SPX wave count looks fine, and everybody is happy with their P4 hedges. What scenario will the market play out to fool us all?

    I am still sticking to the old Dow count. Major 5 start in october and an Ending Diagonal, with an E-wave rapidly closing in on the upper trendline between A-wave top (january) and C-wave top (july).
    This trendline presently stands approximately at Dow 17.300. At the same level as upper bollinger weekly.

    Best wishes Sverker

      • walkerjb says:

        tony, i read this blog daily (….sometimes hourly). i took the OEW tutoring course a couple years ago. it has proven to be invaluable to me. there are a laundry list of technical tools out there but what opened my eyes were the wave counts and primarily the short term to the long term wave analysis. the road map appeared! i thank you for being a graceful mentor. (after evaluating many words and acronyms, “grace” seems to fit). even old dogs (me) can learn something new. thanks to the blog and the oew team. you are greatly appreciated!

    • soulsurfer says:

      i agree sverker, sometimes (or often?) the obvious is simply what it is: the obvious. no reason to overthink this imho.

      trading wise it’s a different story. i personally take all my long chips off the table tuesday/wednesday and will wait patiently. IF it goes up: I buy the next train ticket to the next station. IF it goes down then I buy that train ticket south. either or, doesn’t matter, ’cause this way I don’t loose any more, and only stand to gain. But hey, that’s just me 😉

      • Soul, I have downloaded your excellent longterm analysis, and started to spread the word here in Sweden. Lots of positive responses!

        • soulsurfer says:

          thank you, thank you, thank you! working on SPX update now. so please check my blog. seeing possible targets between 2010 to 2030. I take 2030 as close enough to my 2036 call 🙂

  8. 56rambler says:

    Thanks, Mr. Caldaro. Love your teaser – “Looks like we are fast approaching another inflection point.” Can’t wait to read your wknd update (published tomorrow?) Best to you on this long weekend!

  9. torehund says:

    Good weekend to all !

    Weekend hint, keep Your Investments greenack oriented.
    The Norwegian state bank Will be buying 100 milion USD on a daily basis, in order to Balance the growing Budget deficit…. There Will be a run into the Dollar.

  10. CB says:

    Thanks Tony. Great work over the years! A while back when we discussed William Oneil’s supercycle acticle, you mentioned 2016 as an approximate level for cycle wave 2 top…and we were trading in the 1200s then….so you made an extremely accurate kong-term prediction then..Congrats Tony! How about that cycle wave 3 top..?. =)

  11. pcskier says:

    Thanks tony have a good wk end.
    I am becoming a believer in OEW.

  12. mike7x says:

    Thanks Tony! Looks like fall is coming. Autumn also. Happy Labor D weekend!!

  13. mjtplayer says:

    Thanks Tony – Have a great weekend!

Comments are closed.