thursday update

SHORT TERM: gap down opening-then bounce, DOW -42

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.3%. Europe opened lower and lost 0.8%. US index futures traded lower overnight. At 8:30 Q2 GDP was revised upward: +4.2% v +4.0%, and weekly Jobless claims were unchanged: 298k v 298k. The market gapped down at the open to SPX 1992, dipped to 1991, and then started to rebound. The SPX had closed at 2000 yesterday. At 10am Pending home sales were reported higher: +3.3% v -1.1%. The rebound hit SPX 1999 around 12:30, then the market went sideways for the rest of the day closing at 1997.

For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.20%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.20%. Bonds gained 5 ticks, Crude rose 75 cents, Gold rallied $7, and the USD was flat. Medium term support remains at the 1973 and 1956 pivots, with resistance at the 2019 and 2070 pivots. Tomorrow: Personal income/spending and the PCE at 8:30, the Chicago PMI at 9:45, then Consumer sentiment at 10am.

The market gapped down at the open today for the first time since this uptrend began on August 7th. There have been five gap up openings. The market opened within one point of its low today, and then rebounded for the rest of the day. When the market opened below SPX 1995 we updated the Minor 3 label to dark blue. When the market formed a positive divergence at the SPX 1991 low we posted a tenetative green Minor 4 label at that level. The 14 point pullback, 2005-1991, may have been enough for Minor wave 4. However, if Europe continues to slide the SPX could still hit 1985 or even the 1973 pivot. Any new high would of course suggest we are in Minor wave 5.

Short term support is at SPX 1985 and the 1973 pivot, with resistance at SPX 2005 and the 2019 pivot. Short term momentum displayed a positive divergence at today’s low then bounced to neutral. The short term OEW charts remained negative all day with the reversal level now SPX 1998. Best to your pre-holiday trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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114 Responses to thursday update

  1. CygnetNoir says:

    looks like it will be a LONG weekend after all.

    Have a good one Tony, Lee, HD, lunker, Uncle, golfer, et. al.


  2. oneandonlyuniverse says:

    stopped out on short…nice weekend


  3. Could end up with triple doji top today on SPX…..also a possible topping signal


    • valunvstr says:

      Not so sure about that. Will take another couple to few weeks. This is almost exactly like the March to April set up. Sideways chop to a new high then a small 3-4% pullback. All indicators from RSI to TRIX to Bullish Percent look the same


  4. Tony, once P4 commence would you expect gold and gold miners to decline along side equities? Your reply would be greatly appreciated, thanks.


  5. SPX should not cross all time high today (@2005), INDU has put up marginal high at 17153.8 but.Trannies have not.

    If lucky enough, something terribly goes wrong Geopolitically over the weekend and that will set up NON CONFORMANCE to DOW theory, and also SPX unable to cross high today, should add fuel to the fire.

    Good news is, if it does not happen as above over the weekend, nothing is lost, will get stopped out at few points. But, yet another opportunity to “have Ben Bernanke and his theories for breakfast…”. He and his theories cant run forever, will send him packing sooner


  6. pcskier says:

    Rsp equal weight 500 made a new all time high today,


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