wednesday update

SHORT TERM: market finishes mixed, DOW +15

Overnight the Asian markets ended mixed. Europe opened higher but closed mixed as well. US index futures were higher overnight, and the market opened two points above yesterday’s SPX 2000 close. That was the high for the day as the market started to pullback. The market declined to SPX 1998 by 10:30, then bounced to 2001 just as Europe was closing at 11:30. After that it went sideways until about 2:30 then started to decline further. Just past 3pm the SPX hit 1996, then rebounded to close at 2000.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.05%, and the NDX/NAZ were mixed. Bonds gained 7 ticks, Crude slipped 5 cents, Gold was flat, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 1973 and 1956 pivots, with resistance at the 2019 and 2070 pivots. Tomorrow: Q2 GDP (est. +4.0%) at 8:30, along with weekly Jobless claims. Then at 10am Pending home sales.

The market opened within three points of the all time high, then started to pullback in quiet trading. When Europe closed for the day the SPX was near its high, and then drifted down like it has done all week. In the last hour of trading the SPX hit 1996, and then rebounded. With the hourly RSI hitting oversold today a pullback of some degree is confirmed. But until we see an overlap of SPX 1995, we can not be sure Minor wave 3 ended at 2005. If the market makes new highs from here we would think Minor wave 3 is extending.

Short term support is at SPX 1985 and the 1973 pivot, with resistance at SPX 2005 and the 2019 pivot. Short term momentum hit oversold and then bounced to neutral. The short term OEW charts flip-flopped at the SPX 2000 level, ended neutral, with the reversal level still at 2000. Best to your trading GDP day!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

Investor
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130 Responses to wednesday update

  1. budfox9450 says:

    RSH — How, or Why is this retailer still in biz? I understand
    it is a retailer, of cell phones. But, RSH and BBY, are 2 biz
    that seem, to never have a come-kid story.

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  2. mjtplayer says:

    Tony – 14pts seems a but shallow for minor 4, no? Perhaps the drop to 1,991 was minute a, just finished minute b up to 1,998 (exact 50% retrace) now in minute c down to finish minor 4 later today or tomorrow a.m.? If so, c=a at 1,984 which would also test the previous wave 4 of 3 and your original ballpark estimate of mid 1,980’s.

    My trigger finger is getting itchy. Chomping at the bit to short IWM & EWG; but still holding off for now…

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  3. tony caldaro says:

    Before things get out of hand.
    Please keep comments market oriented, and not about who said what to who.
    thank you for your continued cooperation

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  4. pcskier says:

    HIGH YIELD JUST GAVE ME A SELL ON RISK.

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  5. ariez5 says:

    Hi Tony,
    Over the last few years I have noticed a few very pervasive memes that failed.
    In 2011, it was “you have to have some gold in your portfolio.”
    In 2012, it was the breakup of the EU.
    In 2013 it was the “great rotation” out of bonds.
    Today, one hears from everywhere only of “second-half-of-the-year strength.”
    Just a caution.

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  6. gary61b says:

    One more push up should seal the gap from this morning on spx 60

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  7. ariez5 says:

    Hi Tony,
    Not even a 23% correction on Minor 4? It’s hard for me to believe.
    I have the feeling many will not want to go into the long weekend long, given the Russian situation. I am guessing there is more selling coming in the next 24 hours.

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  8. valunvstr says:

    Tony,
    Thoughts on emerging markets long term? Looks like they are breaking out despite a strong dollar. Some are getting bullish which of course concerns me. Thanks.

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