SHORT TERM: higher open-new high, DOW +30
Overnight the Asian market lost 0.3%. Europe opened higher and gained 1.0%. US index futures were higher overnight, and at 8:30 Durable goods orders were reported higher: +22.6% v +1.7%. At 9am Case-Shiller was reported lower: +8.1% v +9.3%, and the FHFA index higher: +0.4% v +0.4%. The market opened three points above yesterday’s SPX 1998 close, and continued to move higher. At 10am Consumer confidence was reported higher: 92.4 v 90.9. The market continued to drift higher until European markets closed and the SPX hit 2005. After that, like yesterday, it started to pullback. The pullback lasted into the close with the SPX ending the session just above 2000.
For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.15%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.20%. Bonds gained 2 ticks, Crude rose 50 cents, Gold rallied $6, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 1973 and 1956 pivots, with resistance at the 2019 and 2073 pivots. Tomorrow: nothing on the economic schedule.
The market opened higher today, followed the rally in Europe, and hit a new all time high just about when Europe closed at SPX 2005. After that, like yesterday, it went sideways for the rest of the day. Thus far we have counted Minor waves 1 and 2 at SPX 1945 and 1928, and now a five wave Minor 3: 1964-1942-1995-1985-2005. With Minor 3 just about double Minor 1 (77 pts vs 40 pts), and the rising Minute waves of Minor 3 all near fibonacci numbers (36, 53, 20 vs 34, 55, 21), it might be time for a Minor wave 4 pullback. Especially with the ongoing negative divergence on the hourly chart. Thus far all we have seen is a five point pullback to SPX 2000. Should the pullback drop below SPX 1995 Minor 4 is probably underway.
Short term support is at SPX 1985 and the 1973 pivot, with resistance at SPX 2005 and the 2019 pivot. Short term momentum continues to display that negative divergence. The short term OEW charts remain positive with the reversal level now SPX 2000. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend
LONG TERM: bull market