weekend update


US markets rise for third week in a row. The week started off with a gap up on monday, and then continued to rise every day until thursday. When it hit a new all time high at SPX 1995. A pullback on friday ended the week at SPX 1988. For the week the SPX/DOW were +1.85%, the NDX/NAZ were +1.65%, and the DJ World indix rose 1.2%. Economic reports for the week were all positive until the WLEI downticked on friday. The upticks: the NAHB, the CPI, housing starts, building permits, existing home sales, the Philly FED, leading indicators, the monetary base, and weekly jobless claims declined. Next week we get an update on Q2 GDP (est. +4.0%), PCE prices and the Chicago PMI.

LONG TERM: bull market

This bull market continues to unfold in five Primary waves from the March 2009 low. Primary waves I and II completed in 2011, and Primary wave III has been underway since that October 2011 low. Primary waves I and III have both divided into five major waves. During Primary I only Major wave 1 subdivided. During Primary III Major waves 3 and 5 are subdividing. Major waves 1 and 2 completed in late 2011. Major waves 3 and 4 completed in early 2014. Major wave 5 has been underway since that February 2014 low.


Several months ago we detailed how and why Major wave 5 should subdivide in the SPX/DOW. While the NDX/NAZ completed their Major waves. The end result would be a completed Primary wave III. This would be followed by a Primary wave IV and the largest correction since 2011. We estimated the SPX would complete five Intermediate waves, which it appears to be doing. The DOW would complete a diagonal triangle Major wave 5. And, the NDX/NAZ would complete their Major 3, 4, 5 wave pattern.

For the past three weeks we have been noticing deviations in our monitor portion of our: project-monitor-and adjust when necessary mantra. While the SPX looks fine, as noted above. The DOW and NDX/NAZ have all deviated from what was expected. This deviation suggests the market may have evolved into an alternate count, and Primary wave III may not end soon. This will be explained near the end of the report.

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

Last week the NDX confirmed its uptrend. This week the SPX/NAZ confirmed their uptrends. The DOW has yet to confirm, but this should occur shortly. We continue to count this uptrend as Intermediate wave v of Major wave 5. Thus far this uptrend has had three decent rallies: 1905-1945, 1928-1964 and 1942-1995. The first rally and pullback (1945-1928) we counted as Minor wave 1 and 2. The next rally and pullback (1964-1942) we counted a Minute waves i and ii of Minor 3. And, this last rally and pullback (1995-1985 so far) is being counted as Minute waves iii and iv of Minor 3, (see hourly chart).


We noted last week that SPX 1993 and 2000 should come into play as Minor 3 unfolds. Minute iii topped at SPX 1995 this week. The next set of ranges we see are SPX 2000 to 2008, the 2019 pivot range, and then SPX 2033 to 2036. Minor wave 3 should top in one of these ranges. Since Minute wave iii was larger than Minute i, Minute v can be any length. Also, with the daily RSI just getting overbought this week, and the MACD just turning up, it is probably too early to even be considering an uptrend high next week. We will leave that to the weeks ahead. Medium term support remains at the 1973 and 1956 pivots, with resistance at the 2019 and 2070 pivots.


Short term support is at SPX 1985 and the 1973 pivot, with resistance at SPX 1995 and the 2019 pivot. Short term momentum ended the week just below neutral. The short term OEW charts ended the week at neutral, with the reversal level at SPX 1988.


The short term count within the uptrend continues to unfold as expected. The question now is how deep a pullback for Minute wave iv. Thus far it has declined 10 points, SPX 1995-1985. Previous pullbacks have been a bit larger: 22 points for Minute ii, and 17 points for Minor 2. Initially, with friday’s oversold condition, it looks like 10 points might be enough. However, with the 34 EMA at 1981 and the potential for a lower low setting up a positive divergence. We may see additional downward pressure on monday. SPX 1973 to 1978 appears to be the normal range for this uptrend, but 1981 may just be enough. After Minute iv concludes, Minute v will be underway to new all time highs.


While we are maintaining our primary counts, noted above. We have noticed some deviations from what was expected during these past few months. The SPX, as you can see in the charts above, looks fine. The problems we are seeing are in the NAZ and the DOW. Since these two indices are key to our market observations, these deviations are worth noting.


At first glance the NAZ looks fine. But if you look closer, the recent correction which is labeled Major wave 4 was only 3.7%. That is the smallest correction of the entire bull market. This, in itself, is quite unusual for an important fourth wave. In fact, the previous correction, of a lesser Intermediate degree, was 9.7%. Historically this does not look quite right. It actually looks like a correction of a lesser degree.


The DOW was expected to form a contracting diagonal triangle Major wave 5. But look at what occurred to the contracting triangle. It now has the look of an expanding triangle. Historically I never observed this wave formation in the DOW.


Both of these points may, in the end, prove to be insignificant. But if they are not, they could be telling us Major wave 5 in the SPX/DOW, and Primary III in the NDX/NAZ is about to extend in time and price. With this possibility in mind we arrived at two alternate counts that are worth watching.


For now we will consider the trigger mechanism of the primary versus alternate count to be the DOW’s expanding triangle. Should the DOW rally strongly during this uptrend, and significantly clear the upper rising trend line, we will consider the extension is on. If the uptrend ends within the upper trendline the primary count remains in play. Something to watch in the weeks ahead.


Asian markets were mostly higher on the week for a net gain of 0.8%.

European markets were all higher for a net gain of 2.4%.

The Commodity equity group were all higher and gained 1.7%.

The DJ World index gained 1.2% on the week.


Bonds continue to uptrend but lost 0.6% on the week.

Crude remains in a steady downtrend losing 3.7% on the week.

Gold could not avoid Silver’s downtrend and lost 1.9% on the week.

The USD continues to uptrend soaring 1.2% on the week.


Monday: New home sales at 10am. Tuesday: Durable goods, Case-Shiller, the FHFA and Consumer confidence. Thursday: Q2 GDP, weekly Jobless claims and Pending home sales. Friday: Personal income/spending, the PCE, Chicago PMI and Consumer sentiment. Nothing scheduled for the FED.

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

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217 Responses to weekend update

  1. mkt. update for monday and new trades for tuesday (within blog’s comments sect.):

  2. Tony,
    Would you please give us the entire count as to where you think we are please? I am off a little and would like to reset. Thank you.

  3. rabbittrader1 says:

    Ariez5 and your post “clear warnings”Yes there are warnings,and you will remenber Santayana and “Those who do not remember history are doomed to repeat it”.. This August2014 is the 100th anniversary of the start of WWI. Also many parallels to 1929. Buying Gold in here today stop,at 1273.2. Dont think crude will follow,but prepared to cover my shorts since 104. Watching for SPXU 44 calls for Oct 18 and Dec 19 after b wave up. Soon buying SPXS ETF. “We are all angels with one wing, but we can fly embracing one another: :Titus Lucretius Carus circa 70BC.(Even roman poets back then believed in Angels)

    • Rabbittrader, many people probably think you fell down a rabbit hole and swallowed too many “red pills” but my source says we crash this year, so I do not think your analysis is crazy. I’d love for you to do a guest post on my site if you have the time?

    • wildmick says:

      “Those who CANNOT remember the past are condemned to repeat it.”
      f you’re going to quote someone, do so correctly please or someone might think youre michelle hyphenated-hosenose from cnbc.

    • perversionofthemean says:

      It’s really hard for me to embrace any trade based on the 100th anniversary of a prior event. Clearly your analysis is chart/technical based. Rather than proffer your opinion in text, can you back it up graphically? Which cycle? Which pattern? I’m a patterns guy too, with lots of time spent analyzing 1901-1932.

  4. Tony

    On your chart list I see the only thing looking bullish is GERN (which looks like about to start wave 3 of 3) correct ? Or are there any other stocks you follow which might be starting a strong wave 3 of 3 ?

    Thank you

  5. torehund says:

    KOL looks to be close to something…

  6. pcskier says:

    High yield looks to be trying to roll over stocks followed last time. I have/had $indu 17062 as a topping zone to finish this last thrust up. I think if $indu get below 17062 and Spx gets below 1792 we may have a red close across the board.

    • FiveStars says:

      Yah sure. After today’s SPX move to 2000, the markets around the world will follow US markets and will even put more fuel to US market tomorrow.

      • pcskier says:

        Maybe or maybe the $dax will not get pass it’s 200 DMA, the $nikk will stall out with a lower high, ETC. Guess we will find out tomorrow.

  7. I see Tony

    I just thought that minute v topped out here today as mkts looks like reversing lower from the highs today. So I was guessing that minute v might have topped just above 2000.

  8. Hi Tony

    How many SPX points are you looking for at wave iv pullback ? Probably down to 1973 pivot or ?

    Thank you

  9. rabbittrader1 says:

    To Kvilia et-al, Should get a 50% correction from 2010 area around Sept 4th into Nov. 14th ie down to 1005 on S&P.. However first drop to 1688 by Oct.2 should be followed by by a B wave up
    in a week before heading for the 1005. After that I did not mean sideways for next two years but further down. But I’ll let Tony figure that out when (and if) the first part of this long range forecast turns out. Good Luck to all Stayying short crude since 104. In a major depression oil demand will drop.

  10. H D says:

    There isn’t a single volume trader that can explain ES 1890 -or news trader or vix trader. FIBS! Just an observation, fibs from 1929 pivot to 2002 have the pivots at golden ratio, W i highs half way. 2001 is also the 3X gann figure. So far zero sell programs. I’d settle for a slump buster.

  11. rabbittrader1 says:


  12. uncle10 says:

    Thanks Tony.
    Cheap short here? giving it a try. gl all.

  13. manunidhi21 says:


    Can you suggest after a 50 % correction in coming years which sectors will emerge or we should focus for long term investing. It is hard to imagine Apple from 456 to No.1 .

  14. Lee X says:

    Some brave souls got filled @ their price in ES futures is the word on the curb

  15. FiveStars says:

    This blog is priceless, there is so much valuable input here from so many gurus and experts which you will not find on most paid blogs. Thank you, Tony.

    • tony caldaro says:

      You all make it what is is

      • manunidhi21 says:

        We not you🙂
        If that was not the case..then oil pricing, drugs and weapons will be out of business.
        If i always step back and think why two world wars? its business..
        the continous fight Of islamist and whole world is to keep oil prices high to cut deflationary cycle out and sell weapons.
        Israel is just to keep the Suez canal way safe..same with Crimea(through Instanbul)…

  16. Tony – Are you considering this rally an extension of Minute 3 or Minute 5 underway?

  17. rabbittrader1 says:

    This is Rabbittrader,a guy who believes in CYCLES and Pattern Recognition (as well as Elliot Wave.)I was born in 1935 and did M&A work and STRATEGIC LONG RANGE PLANNING for major listed corporations, Made 500% in 6 months on sugar futures back in the day. Pattern Recognition tells me we top out on September 4th on the S&P. Check out 1929 chart. Give or take a few days. Then by Oct 9th ,after a .small b wave rally, we CRASH into late November and do not much for a couple years. IMVHO.(TRADER SINCE1974.) Thanks for your work Tony.

  18. mjtplayer says:

    SPX officially tags 2k, the media will be euphoric all day; time for minor 4?

  19. rc1269 says:

    the good thing is the cnn money fear/greed indicator still has us in the red at a miserable 37

    i’m starting to wonder if it actually measures ‘fear’ from the standpoint of the shorts…

  20. CygnetNoir says:

    I guess it’s time to party like its 1999, but I have no idea what that means under these circumstances.

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