friday update

SHORT TERM: first notable pullback of week, DOW -38

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.1%. Russia moved its convoy across the Ukrainian border. Europe opened lower and lost 0.6%. US index futures were lower overnight, but the market opened unchanged at SPX 1992. After an initial drop to SPX 1987 the market rose as to 1994 just past 10am as FED chair Yellen’s Jackson Hole speech was released: Then the market pulled back again. By 11am the SPX hit 1985, got oversold short term, and tried to rally. The rally hit SPX 1992 three times in the afternoon, then the market ended at 1988.

For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.20%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.15%. Bonds lost 4 ticks, Crude slipped 35 cents, Gold rose $3, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 1973 and 1956 pivots, with resistance at the 2019 and 2070 pivots. Last night the FED reported a record high in the Monetary base: $4.125tn v $4.121tn. Today the WLEI was reported lower: 52.8% v 53.6%.

The market opened unchanged today, dipped five points, rallied within one point of the SPX 1995 high, and then pulled back to 1985. After that it remained within that trading range for the rest of the day. We marked a Minute wave iii high at SPX 1995 during the second pullback, and are waiting to see if Minute iv ended at today’s 1985 low. When it does end, Minute v can rally to any level since Minute iii (53 pts) was longer than Minute wave i (36 pts).

Short term support is now at SPX 1985 and the 1973 pivot, with resistance at SPX 1995 and the 2019 pivot. Short term momentum dropped to oversold after being overbought all week, then bounced. The short term OEW charts flip-flopped today as the SPX 1988 reversal level was crossed several times. Best to your weekend!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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29 Responses to friday update

  1. esvxm says:

    Thanks Tony for the analysis!
    Euro might be preparing for a bounce from this key level:

  2. Anonymous says:

    Hi all,
    can anyone help with this one? wave 5 completed and I believe just finished A-B now to C?
    any feedback is really appreciated this EW student still learning 🙂

    • lunker1 says:

      looks like a large ABC flat since 2008 that bottomed in 2013. then maybe nested 1,2’s w a strong 3 and maybe now in B of wave 4 with a C down to come or an expanded flat that’s already completed. gap resistance at 42.70 might contain this B. no positive divergence on the RSI5 daily at the recent low but maybe on the next LL. if the gap gets filled to the upside then 4 could be done as it did retrace about 30% of wave 3

  3. torehund says:

    Lots of thanks to Tony and all contributors..

  4. Thank Lunker for your earlier reply and thank Tony for update. Looking forward to your weekend update…….With New Moon on Monday I’m expecting downtrend to continue and here is how I see Minute iv of Minor 3 unfolding so far;
    For SPX:
    at 1985 Micro a
    at 1992 Micro b
    at 1982 Micro c = Micro a …. Note Micro c currently subdividing

    For ES:
    at 1981.5 Micro a
    at 1990 Micro b
    at 1979.5 Micro c = Micro a …. Note Micro c currently subdividing

    let see if it plays out come Sunday/Monday

  5. CB says:

    Thanks tony! Happy to see you mention that 1985 could be the end of min iv as we did in fact get the ” usual” 10 pts pullback and we got nothing but + divs on each & every intraday pullback today…now the whole intraday structure looks like an inv H+S ..dudes are bidding it up in AH, and the most intriguing question for me is, “why not” the end of min iv… =)
    Have a great weekend Tony and all!

  6. soulsurfer says:

    thanks Tony! Looking forward to the weekend update.

    In the mean time, I am working on a longer essay that will show the importance of the number 666, and 2 Fib numbers for the SPX. It may pretty well be the only numbers we need to predict Primary III, IV, and V. I’ll go even further than that and show where I think C2 likely will end. In the end it’s all about symmetry.

    Many of you know that I’ve transitioned to a partial paid (premium membership) site and I thank those that have signed up! (More always welcome 😉 ) But, this essay is just too good to be true, at least in my eyes 😉 , to place it under a pay-wall restriction, so I’ll share it with everybody. In the true spirit of Tony’s work!

    Have a great weekend y’all!

    • Looking forward to your essay Soul!
      In the meanwhile I am looking at the Dow chart and am still proposing the Ending Diagonal approach here.
      The ED started 4 of october after the completion of major 4 (old count).
      A-wave high january, B-wave low february, C-wave high july, D-wave low august.
      Now we should be in the E-wave up and soon will finish the first a-leg.
      The b-wave will probably correspond to minor 4 in SPX.

      Best wishes Sverker

  7. Is it mandatory under OEW that the 10 point drop to 1985 means that minute 3 topped out and that a rally on Monday would have to be minute 5. In other words, is there any possibility that minute 3 could go higher?

  8. mjtplayer says:

    Thanks Tony!

    Big drop in the WLEI and now down to 52.8%, inching ever closer towards 50. Likely to see Q3 GDP numbers continue to get marked down, consensus now stands at about 3% – which is beginning to look optimistic.

  9. 56rambler says:

    Thanks, Mr. Caldaro. Would you expect minute v to be a new high, or it doesn’t need to be? Also, when minute v completes, then this would mark the completion of Minor wave 3? Have a great weekend! Looking forward to your wknd update!

  10. soulsurfer says:
    August 21, 2014 at 4:39 pm
    george, no I did not. please read carefully. those were projections made for minute iii

    Soulsurfer: You are right. I did not read carefully enough. Minute 3 rather than Minor 3. The insertion of [Minute] iii did help to clarify. Incidentally, what might the next higher plausible fib projection than 2.0 x minute 1 be for minute 3, or is there one?
    The wave count posted Aug 21 @ 5:06 PM is a real tour de force in precision. What time resolution chart do you need to see those tiny waves?

    • soulsurfer says:

      Hi george, no worries. Can the micro count (just kinda had fun with it)… I see now where I went wrong (what I counted as nano i and ii were in fact nano a and b of micro iv). live and learn. micro counting is hard and often wrong 😉 hence OEW! But it sharpens the pencil so to say

      I use a 10min resolution.

      often 5th waves extend to 2.00x the length of wave 1 above the wave 2 low, but of course, it all depends on the length of wave 3. wave 3 can be shorter than 1, and than 5 is shorter, or wave 3 can be 2.618 or 3.618 or more the length of 1.

      • Thanks. I am hoping for a stronger wave 3 than one just topping at 1995. The $SPX values have been getting into years that we can actually remember now (i.e.1995 etc.)

  11. lunker1 says:

    Thx Tony. Clear as a bell. Have a great weekend.

  12. chicotheman says:

    Thank you Tony, you are in the zone!

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