friday update

SHORT TERM: volatile OPEX, DOW -51

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.4%. Europe opened higher but lost 0.7%. US index futures were higher overnight. At 8:30 the PPI was reported higher: +0.1% v +0.4%, and the NY FED was reported lower: 14.7 v 25.6. At 9:15 Industrial production was reported inline with expectations: +0.4% v +0.2%. The market gapped up at the open to SPX 1962, ticked up to 1963, down to 1960, and then hit 1964 by 10:30. At 10am Consumer sentiment was reported lower: 79.2 v 81.8. After that high, reports came across that the Ukraine has attacked a Russian convoy, and the market sold off. At 11am the SPX hit 1946, rallied to 1955 just past 11am, then dropped to 1942 by noon. Then after a rally to SPX 1951 by 12:30, the market dipped to 1946 by 2pm, then rallied to 1955 to end the day.

For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.15%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.35%. Bonds gained 11 ticks, Crude rallied $1.45, Gold dropped $8, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 1929 and 1901 pivots, with resistance at the 1956 and 1973 pivots. Today the WLEI was reported lower: 53.6% v 53.8%.

The market gapped up for the third day this week, made a new rally high at SPX 1964, then some Ukraine news came in and the volatility of OPEX took over. By time the smoke cleared the SPX had gone from extremely overbought at the highs to oversold at the 1942 low. Quite a swing in 1.5 hours. After that the market worked its way higher for the rest of the day. After the initial break we labeled the SPX 1964 high as Minute i of Minor 3. SPX 1942 may be the Minute ii low. Weekend report should cover it.

Short term support is now at SPX 1942 and the 1929 pivot, with resistance at the 1956 and 1973 pivots. Short term momentum ended the day above neutral. Short term OEW charts swung negative then positive, with the reversal level now at SPX 1951. Best to your weekend!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend probably underway

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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35 Responses to friday update

  1. fishonhook says:

    So lets work this out
    Tony says 3 months for PIV
    Starts September
    Then if V = I
    We could be looking at year for that?
    Is that right folks?
    So according to this we could be looking at December 2015??

  2. JeffMilano says:

    Tx Tony for being on target and keeping the correct count.

  3. XScaler HB says:

    Hey Tony,

    Look at the SPX monthly chart. Look at the lower and lower highs being made on the RSI and then the attempting rollover of the EXTREMELY high MACD. I assume this bigger scale 4th coming after this current fifth (I’ll buy it over 1980 – still not convinced but also not betting against it) is what will bring those in line.

  4. ariez5 says:

    Could someone explain to me how we edged up to the precipice of NATO-Russian hostilities, and the market closed nearly flat? I see and am amazed at how what happened today makes total sense in OEW terms, but this just seems like one of those geopolitical dangers that could have serious impact on the global economy and stability and is getting worse daily. I believe Tony has said that war has prematurely halted a 5-wave move before, and I do not see why it should not happen now. What caused the bounce? Why did we not close down 300 Dow points? And please, no references to the Fed. Many thanks.

    • XScaler HB says:

      It’s called being in a wave count. Nothing typically gets in the way. But since we are most likely in this fifth, the end is near and this pent up demand on the down side will be severe

      • magicianme says:

        I don’t know about nothing getting in the way. If Europe declares war against Russia this weekend the S&P could go down 10% in very short order …. and then all the wave counts would have to be adjusted to show that SPX 1991 was in fact the Primary III high and that the sell off was the long anticipated Primary IV. Or something like that.

        News can make a mockery of any analysis. Not mixing funnymentals with tech analysis is a good principle, but it’s wise to be aware that news can drive markets in a big way. I’m a day trader and typically avoid entering prior to scheduled eco news and announcements. But for longer term traders as well news like 9/11, 7/7, Japan’s tsunami etc., aren’t anticipated in wave charts though one can always back fit the news!

    • chicotheman says:

      You are asking what caused what you observed. Nobody can really answer that. The better line of questioning would be what can you infer from what you observed?

    • cmucha68 says:

      The Russians denied any movement into territory and there is a meeting of ministers in Berlin over the weekend from Russia and Ukraine for discussion. If Putin had given an immediate statement that there will be a retaliation you might have seen the Dow down probably 400 points down. But I guess Putin plays it clever. By doing nothing so far he is the good guy. But admitting to have send troops illegally into Ukraine makes him the aggressor in the first place. But my opinion is either you are a technician and trade with waves or other chart tools or not. To trade also on news can confuse you. Best example not to do so is mylself: I was heavily short from the top and went out near the lows but didn’t go long afterwards because I was thinking too long about the news and the possible outcome. In the meantime the market went up again. So don’t mix news with technicals.

    • cmucha68 says:

      I would be carefully with McClellan. He was so awfully wrong in the past that I cannot count it anymore. Like here: he switches from bearish to bullish within 20 Points.

  5. chicotheman says:

    Hi Tony,

    Long-time listener, first time caller. I actually created the wordpress account just to occasionally participate. Love your blog and the contributors.

    I like the count from the 1904 low toward a significant high next month. Today’s shake was a nice reset. I would guess that Monday is likely to pull back some before resuming the march to 2000, but not necessarily even as low as 1941.

  6. Peter Sliney says:

    The Q’s hit there highest high and closed at the highest price today since 2000.
    Some serious dark energy. Check out the August 1998 dip before we hit 10,000 Dow.
    I think $SPX 2000 is a similar magnet.
    Thanks Tony for having this forum and a great weekend to all.

  7. blackjak100 says:

    Ghostine thinks we bottom late Monday/early Tuesday but doesn’t give a target. I’m thinking 1930’s. I’m starting to buy into this scenario and will explain why this weekend. RSI at 97 is bullish and not bearish, but lends to more room to more leg down. This is just one reason.

    • lunker1 says:

      Ghostine hasn’t been very accurate lately with indexes. seems to be making some good calls on stocks but Tony has done a much better job w SPX.

      • blackjak100 says:

        As I’ve always said, I’m not a big fan of his but like to gather as much info as I can. With that said if we take out 1964 on Mon with a gap and go, I’m almost certain int iv bottomed at 1905. I’m still cautious but not as certain as I once was that a C wave is coming.

    • lunker1 says:

      so one more down and then up? his up target is SPY 198.77. Bulkowski’s own target is 2000. my SPY target is 199.45 ~= SPX 1992

    • cmucha68 says:

      The market had the chances to sell off and close at the lows or lower specially with the uncertainty in the background over the weekend. So if the weekend remains calm and no further rattling on the geo front. Over upwards can continue. If situation eprelly escalates then intermediary iv has no ended. This is what Tony also mentioned a few days ago. So we are exactly in the middle. But the chart gives me the impression that the next target is 1980 next week. If the market really wants to see the ATH it’s now the chance or never. We are only 35 points away. It can easily go there within next week. Silence on the geo front and dovish stance from Yellen could accomplish the mission.

  8. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony & all on the OEW
    Previous weeks bullish reversal candles confirmed this week.😉

  9. pcskier says:

    $nymo model just gave a sell. But still seeing many bullish signs. If we get a pullback Monday, look for more selling on Tuesday.

  10. lunker1 says:

    So what happened today?

    From Tony’s charts….
    – got the anticipated gap up at 1956 pivot
    – resistance at top of pivot. 60min RSI5 hot at 97.
    – got the anticipated pullback to reset RSI5
    – then lost the pivot at 1948
    – RSI5 sold off to same 35 level as 1928 did
    – SPX sold off to same .382 as 1928 did
    – several EMAs held in the 1943 area
    – bullish cross of the 60min EMAs
    – bullish cross of the Daily MACD
    – rebound back to 1956 pivot
    – seems like the nested 1,2’s are in play
    – chance for minute 2 of minor 3 to make a larger ABC to test 1929 pivot, C=A=1934, or just make a final test of the Weekly 13EMA at 1940….and maybe create +D on 60min RSI5 .
    – after all that today the SPX and IWM was flat and NAZ was up.
    – still don’t think NAZ is in Major 4 yet.

    Minor 3 (Minute) Calcs
    1 = 36
    2 = 1942
    3 = 1 = 1978
    4 = .382 x 3 = 1964
    Minute 5 = .62×1 = 1986 low target*

    3 = 1.62 = 2000
    4 = .236 x 3 = 1986
    Minute 5 = 1 = 2022 high target**

    1 = 40
    2 = 1928
    3 =1986 low target*
    4 = .382 x 3 = 1964
    5 = 1 = 2004

    3 = 2022 high target**
    4= .236 x 3 = 2000
    5 = 1 = 2040

    Int V =.62xI = 1995
    V = I = 2050

    PRI III TARGETS 1995/2004 and 2040/2050.

  11. Wave relationships counting the whole uptrend as Minor 1 on my 24 hour charts:
    3 = 1 x 1.61
    3 = 5 x 0.99
    5 = 1 x 1.62
    Believe it or not but this is excellent news helping to confirming Int. V as the correct count.

    • lunker1 says:

      24 hours charts so you mean a futures chart?
      “whole uptrend”….from 1890 to 1961?
      Where do you have each wave ending?

      I see 1890 to 1940
      1940 to 1924
      1924 to 1961
      1961 to 1937

  12. torehund says:

    Good weekend to Tony and all other contributors.

    • torehund says:

      ..just a side dish: the food price increase in Norway is now 3,4 percent in the same 30 days. The minister of agricultures investigation of who doonit reveals nobody did it…

  13. sunset2014 says:

    Thanks Tony. Looking forward to the weekend update.

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