SHORT TERM: volatile OPEX, DOW -51
Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.4%. Europe opened higher but lost 0.7%. US index futures were higher overnight. At 8:30 the PPI was reported higher: +0.1% v +0.4%, and the NY FED was reported lower: 14.7 v 25.6. At 9:15 Industrial production was reported inline with expectations: +0.4% v +0.2%. The market gapped up at the open to SPX 1962, ticked up to 1963, down to 1960, and then hit 1964 by 10:30. At 10am Consumer sentiment was reported lower: 79.2 v 81.8. After that high, reports came across that the Ukraine has attacked a Russian convoy, and the market sold off. At 11am the SPX hit 1946, rallied to 1955 just past 11am, then dropped to 1942 by noon. Then after a rally to SPX 1951 by 12:30, the market dipped to 1946 by 2pm, then rallied to 1955 to end the day.
For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.15%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.35%. Bonds gained 11 ticks, Crude rallied $1.45, Gold dropped $8, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 1929 and 1901 pivots, with resistance at the 1956 and 1973 pivots. Today the WLEI was reported lower: 53.6% v 53.8%.
The market gapped up for the third day this week, made a new rally high at SPX 1964, then some Ukraine news came in and the volatility of OPEX took over. By time the smoke cleared the SPX had gone from extremely overbought at the highs to oversold at the 1942 low. Quite a swing in 1.5 hours. After that the market worked its way higher for the rest of the day. After the initial break we labeled the SPX 1964 high as Minute i of Minor 3. SPX 1942 may be the Minute ii low. Weekend report should cover it.
Short term support is now at SPX 1942 and the 1929 pivot, with resistance at the 1956 and 1973 pivots. Short term momentum ended the day above neutral. Short term OEW charts swung negative then positive, with the reversal level now at SPX 1951. Best to your weekend!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend probably underway
LONG TERM: bull market