SHORT TERM: market drifts higher, DOW +62
Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.3%. Europe opened lower but gained 0.3%. US index futures were higher overnight. At 8:30 weekly Jobless claims were reported higher: 311k v 289k, and Export (+0.3% v -0.3%) / Import (0.0 v -0.1%) prices were reported flat to higher. The market opened two points above yesterday’s SPX 1947 close. It then ticked up to SPX 1951, dipped to 1948 by 10am, and then started to move higher. At 1:30 the SPX hit 1955, dipped about three points, and then closed at 1955.
For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.40%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.45%. Bonds gained 5 ticks, Crude dropped $2.15, Gold added $1, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 1929 and 1901 pivots, with resistance at the 1956 and 1973 pivots. Tomorrow, Options expiration: the PPI and NY FED at 8:30, Industrial production at 9:15 (est. +0.45%), then Consumer sentiment at 10am.
The market opened a bit higher today, pulled back some, and then hit SPX 1955. The market has now risen 50 points, in five trading days, with just one notable pullback. Either this is a large a-b-c of a count we have not anticipated yet, or the impulse wave of the expected Int. wave v uptrend. We choose the latter. Thus far the market has risen from the SPX 1905 downtrend low in three waves: 1945-1928-1955. We have labeled the first two moves Minor waves 1 and 2. Then a Minor wave 3 underway from the SPX 1928 low. Minor 3 should subdivide into five Minute waves with smaller pullbacks than the one we have observed thus far. The market is again extremely overbought, and at the 1956 pivot. So a pullback can now occur at any time.
Short term support is at the 1929 and 1901 pivots, with resistance at the 1956 and 1973 pivots. Short term momentum ended extremely overbought. The short term OEW charts remain positive with the reversal level now SPX 1948. With Options expiration tomorrow it could be a volatile day. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend probably underway
LONG TERM: bull market