wednesday update

SHORT TERM: gap up opening, DOW +91

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.5%. Europe opened higher and gained 1.0%. US index futures were higher overnight, but at 8:30 Retail sales were reported flat: 0.0% v +0.2%. The market gapped up anyway to SPX 1943 then started to pullback. The SPX had closed at 1934 yesterday. At 10am Business inventories were reported higher: +0.4% v +0.5%. The pullback hit SPX 1938 by 10:30 and then the market moved higher. At 11:30, just when Europe was closing, the SPX hit 1948. Then it started drifting lower. At 2:30 the SPX hit 1944, then bounced to 1947 by the close.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.60%, and the NDX/NAZ were +1.10%. Bonds gained 10 ticks, Crude gained 5 cents, Gold added $3, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 1929 and 1901 pivots, with resistance at the 1956 and 1973 pivots. Tomorrow: weekly Jobless claims and Export/Import prices at 8:30.

The market gapped up at the open for the second time this week. The rally cleared the SPX 1940 level at the open, and we placed a Minor wave 2 label at yesterday’s SPX 1928 low. Minor wave 3 appears to be underway from that level. Today’s SPX 1948 high came within one point of the OEW 1956 pivot range. Which we feel is the market’s next objective. In fact, SPX 1953-1956 looks to be a good range. Thus far, Minor 3 has rallied 20 points without any meaningful pullback. We would expect one when the SPX hits the 1956 pivot range, if not before. Keep an eye on Germany overnight and in the first couple of hours of trading.

Short term support is at the 1929 and 1901 pivots, with resistance at the 1956 and 1973 pivots. Short term momentum hit quite overbought today and then dipped some. The short term OEW charts remain positive with the reversal level now SPX 1941. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend probable

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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57 Responses to wednesday update

  1. JeffMilano says:

    If this is a V then tomorrow gap up.
    If this is a B then tomorrow gap down.

  2. uncle10 says:

    Thanks Mr. T.
    Reckon Yahoo may run some ahead of the ipo? Buying some ” cheap” calls. Hopefully not cheap headed to zero. hahaha🙂

  3. rc1269 says:

    looks very wedge-y this morning

  4. Is your paint dry yet? A bit lacklustre for a 3. Therefore still favor the terminus of Minor 1 although I can see BJ’s count and it doesn’t look too bad either. Anyone see the ED on the NDX. Also on the SPX and DOW but not quite as prominent. Let’s watch.

  5. cmucha68 says:

    The Casino is open. Let the short game begin !

  6. torehund says:

    From Feb 4th I see 2 large waves up, then latest week 2 waves up like to x waves, and latest days another 2 waves. If you summate the 3 waves from all of these ever shrinking 2s you will get some rememberable rally soon. Lets see.

  7. lunker1 says:

    -D building on 60min?

  8. rc1269 says:

    10yr tsy is sitting right on pretty important resistance here at 2.38-2.39%. if we can clear this hurdle it opens the door for a move to 2.21%, then potentially even 2.01-2.05% area. i think a coinciding P IV in SPX would provide just the opportunity, fwiw. cheers

  9. ko68 says:

    Thanks Tony
    In your opinion; is the DAX already in an ABC correction within P4, with a wave A low at same time as SPX had its int med IV low?

    In that case i assume DAX will have a B-wave rally at same time SPX is running its int med V.

  10. lunker1 says:

    hey GT,
    remember the dustpan? well SPY pretty much reached its target of 199ish but Q’s didn’t reach its DB target of 99. maybe this time they both will and then roll over. SPY in P4 and NAZ in Major 4.

  11. blackjak100 says:

    Still favoring the bear case and a Minor B wave completing tomorrow/Fri with a close above 1965 as a line in the sand. I must say bull/bear case doesn’t have a whole evidence for either side yet. I see Ghostine has already thrown in the towel for the bear case, admitted he was wrong, and is calling for an additional 250 NDX pts. Never been a fan of his.

    The only reason(s) I’m favoring bear case (WXY from 19011 or 1905) is the GOLD chart looks like it’s ready to spike to $1350ish very soon. Generally, $SPX will move in opposite direction but not always. Also, the sideways movement for most of today appears more like a ‘b wave’. In the bull count, this should be minute ii within Minor 3 and 2nd waves generally do not move sideways. Bulls should want a pullback tomorrow. Otherwise a move directly towards 1955ish tomorrow strengthens the b wave scenario and the bear case (b of Y of Minor B). Additional sideways movement early tomorrow really strengthens the bear case as well.

    • bhtrade says:

      NDX making a clear argument Tony’s count is correct. NDX/SPX ratio highest in last 27 months today

      • lunker1 says:

        not catching your drift. Tony sez NAZ in Major 4 so it should be weak not strong. seems like that PB was a minor one for NAZ. so maybe…

    • soulsurfer says:

      market always likes to keep us guessing… IF this is a b-wave up, then it has to be 3 waves, which means in that case wave a was to 1945, wave b to 1928. often c=a so that would target 1968. if c=0.618x a the it would target 1953 (right where we are now)…

      but i don’t see any – div either on hourly or daily that would suggest a down move…

  12. ewmarkets says:

    A bearish view on DOW. Quad Q is a respected Elliott Wave theorist. He mostly trade gold, silver, and miners.

  13. Thanks Tony…..Below is how I’m seeing ES Inter V unfolding:
    Minor 1 = 1941
    Minor 2 = 1923.5
    Minor 3 is underway and subdividing
    – Minute 1 = 1941
    – Minute 2 = 1934
    – Minute 3 of Minor 3 is underway and subdividing targeting 1967 ES pivot range (1973 SPX)

    Technical are getting more bullish each passing day

    • cmucha68 says:

      Hmm, straight up from here in the ES to 1967 and no pull back first ? I find it difficult for the moment.

      • cmucha – I didn’t say there would not be any pullbacks, I said Minor 3 is subdividing, so yes there will be pullbacks but they will be small limited pullback….the biggest pullback we saw in Minor 1 was a 10 pt pullback for minute 2..

      • oops…My apologies cmucha…..I had actually meant to say;

        Minor 3 is underway and subdividing targeting 1967 ES pivot range (1973 SPX)
        – Minute 1 = 1941
        – Minute 2 = 1934
        – Minute 3 of Minor 3 is underway and subdividing targeting upper range of the 1950 ES pivot range (1956 SPX)

        thanks for pointing it out.

    • cmucha68 says:

      Except an invasion or any other geo nonsense I can hardly imagine a retest of the lows last week according to your charts. If any meaningful pullback the loepwset would be 1915 in the ES. I agree with Tony either at or just below 1956 could be a pullback but not if magnitude. If the world does not fall apart under normal trading conditions I simply do not see a retest of the lows now. However, if trading was so crystal clear by just counting waves (what millions do traders are also doing) Warren Buffet would be a nobody in comparison to us. So like Tony once said: it’s a game of probabilities. And I say also it’s weighing the chances and having the balls to jump in at the right time with courage.

    • Since wave count is all that appears to matter in the stock market. Appearnt by Japan 6.8 percent drop in GDP and the stock market goes up, and our us markets continue higher because the waves say so. Not because of strong growth. Anyway, since everyone in the world is looking at the next few weeks to end P 4 at 2000-2040. How does everyone get off the buss at the same time. Int 4 was like 7 days, is P 4 going to be 3-4 weeks down 100 sp points every week.

  14. soulsurfer says:

    thanks tony – seeing some counts on the web suggesting this is still only minor 1. what are your thoughts about that?

    • tony caldaro says:

      will be a very long uptrend if it is

    • Soulsurfer: If the preliminary count for Minor 1 is right, 45 points would make for a short Minor 1. I hope that it turns out that Minor 1 is still in play, but with the 17 point correction to 1828, I don’t know if OEW theory allows for that. I hope my suggestions for a technique of measuring prediction accuracy did not come across as a sort of spiteful envy of your obviously excellent knowledge and practice of TA. You are also exceptionally generous in being ready to help others with less skill than yourself, as well as being appreciative of the contributions other posters make.

      • soulsurfer says:

        Thanks George. No, your analysis is as valid as mine or anybody elses! txt book 2.00x extension of 1, from 2 targets 2014. but 3 or 5 can of course always extend. anyway the higher it goes, the higher the risks for longs… sell accordingly😉

    • torehund says:

      Soul, the 2070 on the spx amounts to the gap of the flash crash just going the opposite way..

      • torehund says:

        Going into this I foresee 2 s of ever declining proportions(they are getting smaller and smaller since the grand first two waves in this monthlong story of 2 large mountains). As the move is swift if it materializes I would assume we are to expect retracement hikes of a bunch of shares in concert. Look out for those that have been ill performers in this bull.

      • torehund says:

        My chart published this weekend indicating 2 plus 2 waves up in this bull and the remaining a bent upwards corrective zig zag has an endpoint to wave 3 at 3200-3400 on the spx. For now I, let it rest, however the macro picture with sanctions and pest combined with maybe China and US going into growth makes it feasible. Its like squeezing a hose and then at the same time setting water on full output, the ray of water will then be thin and go a long way. A squeeze…

      • soulsurfer says:

        wouldn’t that be ideal!?

  15. tony caldaro says:

    not a serious rethinking
    but a drop below 1928 would favor a continuation of Int. iv

    • XScaler HB says:

      If so, (which is the way I’m leaning) then this is only a 4th wave bounce? AWE means that the first leg up was about 40 points straight up from the 1904 low before that small correction, means the C wave of this potential 4th bounce would target around 1970ish and then collapse to new lows, probably between 1885 and 1900. So you think below 1928 sets that up?

  16. bouraq says:

    Bull flags broke up:

  17. ariez5 says:

    Tony, would you agree that a drop below 1928 would merit a serious rethinking of the wave count, making a continuation of Int. IV more likely than Int. V?

  18. ariez5 says:

    Me first! Thank you, Tony.

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