thursday update

SHORT TERM: gap up opening sold, DOW -75

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.2%. Europe opened lower and lost 1.0%. US index futures were higher overnight, and at 8:30 weekly Jobless claims were reported lower: 289k v 322k. The market gapped up at the open to SPX 1928, ticked up to 1929, and then began to pullback. Just after 11am the SPX hit 1915, bounced to 1920 by 11:30, then dropped to a new downtrend low at 1908 by 12:30. Around noon the FED released this: The market rallied to SPX 1918 by 1:30, then rolled over and headed lower. Around 3:30 the SPX hit 1905, bounced to 1911, then closed at 1910.

For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.50%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.45%. Bonds gained 15 ticks, Crude added 65 cents, Gold rose $5, and the USD was higher too. Medium term support remains at the 1901 and 1869 pivots, with resistance at the 1929 and 1956 pivots. Tomorrow: Wholesale inventories at 10am.

The market gapped up at the open today, hit the 1929 pivot, and then headed to new lows for the downtrend within the 1901 pivot range. We thought yesterday, after seeing another potentially completed pattern, if the SPX could clear 1928 the bottom may be in at 1911. The SPX hit 1929 and immediately reversed putting in another b wave. Choppy market. We are counting the decline from SPX 1985 to 1916 as Minor A, the three wave rally to 1943 as Minor B, and Minor C still underway. Minor C has unfolded in five waves down to 1911 (Minute a), a three wave rally to 1929 (Minute b), and now it appears another five waves down are underway. Thus far we have from SPX 1929: 1908-1918-1905. It appears the US market was ready to move higher today, but a late day selloff in Europe started the decline.

Short term support is at the 1901 and 1869 pivots, with resistance at the 1929 pivot and SPX 1943. Short term momentum displays another positive divergence. The short term OEW charts flip-flopped again at the highs today, ending negative, with the reversal level now SPX 1918. The uptrend high was difficult to determine, and this downtrend low as well. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: downtrend trying to bottom

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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197 Responses to thursday update

  1. Starbucks SBUX traction appearing, $77.64 up 1.21% today, +.95 cents

    My upside target $79.00

  2. sloop says:

    very impulsive by the looks

  3. buddyglove says:

    Dead cat bounce or fresh impulse wave ?……place your bets now.

    • pcskier says:

      Spx 1940 should be next test, but iwm could not close above 111.2 and vxx did not make a lower low. Coin toss for Monday. $tnx screaming crash is coming below feb low by oct.

      • pcskier says:

        Sorry, 112.2 but the price came up to 112.27 at second look. Could be a bull trap, but looks like a legit bounce. How high will she go is the question.

  4. blackjak100 says:

    looks like 3 of c completing about now towards the 1933 target. May complete Mon with one more little push higher. Then b of B begins.

  5. JK1987 says:

    Tony Thanks
    We have higher high 1930+
    Is that a confirmation of Int iv completed with Minor c at 1905?

  6. pcskier says:

    Vxx is getting a bid at the buy the dip zone, Spx has not cleared pivot=is this the lower high?

  7. kvilia says:

    Holy macaroni. I can certainly say I’ve never seen anything like that in my entire life. No matter how many multiple OEW experts are interpreting market, there is only one guru.
    Have a great weekend, Tony!

  8. gary61b says:

    gary61b says:
    August 7, 2014 at 12:16 pm
    ES has some unfinished business at 1924.75 to complete
    Unfinished buisness is completed today

  9. When I posted my comment about “futures down 18…” today, that turned out to b bottom. Now when it turned back up I went long at 1901.2 only to sell at 1903.9

    I am hundred percent sure that I need a break. If you see bigger idiot than me, please ping me, you wont find one…

  10. This is the biggest bait job to entice bulls I have seen in years. My best guess is Monday you will wake up to a 30-40 point gap down on spx based off of Russia, Iraq Ebola Issues.

  11. XScaler HB says:

    Just making sure I’m on same page, this wave 4 is setting up for the 5th wave SC3 probably mid year next year? Looking at TC’s SPX monthly chart.

  12. From the low in the futures just 12 hours ago the market has already retraced 34.7% of the whole decline.

  13. You’ve amended your count TC. Well done sir. Now we’re on the same page. Question: (This may have been asked before.) Are there any implications regarding the overlap of Int IV into the expanded flat area of Int II earlier today in the 24 hour market?

  14. sloop says:

    looking like no more 5,already done ,so much for the 5 diagonal scenario

  15. budfox9450 says:

    My BoYu indicator is turning
    Bullish, Awaiting for confirmation
    form a signal line crossover.

  16. pcskier says:

    1929 SPX is the hurdle today, clear and continue higher(for a while) or will the sellers gladly sell into strength of the day.

  17. Today, Starbucks SBUX moving higher in value! Traction?

  18. RDC says:

    Anybody knows what is the ticker symbol of NATGAS on Thanks

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