SHORT TERM: gap up opening sold, DOW -75
Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.2%. Europe opened lower and lost 1.0%. US index futures were higher overnight, and at 8:30 weekly Jobless claims were reported lower: 289k v 322k. The market gapped up at the open to SPX 1928, ticked up to 1929, and then began to pullback. Just after 11am the SPX hit 1915, bounced to 1920 by 11:30, then dropped to a new downtrend low at 1908 by 12:30. Around noon the FED released this: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/other/20140807a.htm. The market rallied to SPX 1918 by 1:30, then rolled over and headed lower. Around 3:30 the SPX hit 1905, bounced to 1911, then closed at 1910.
For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.50%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.45%. Bonds gained 15 ticks, Crude added 65 cents, Gold rose $5, and the USD was higher too. Medium term support remains at the 1901 and 1869 pivots, with resistance at the 1929 and 1956 pivots. Tomorrow: Wholesale inventories at 10am.
The market gapped up at the open today, hit the 1929 pivot, and then headed to new lows for the downtrend within the 1901 pivot range. We thought yesterday, after seeing another potentially completed pattern, if the SPX could clear 1928 the bottom may be in at 1911. The SPX hit 1929 and immediately reversed putting in another b wave. Choppy market. We are counting the decline from SPX 1985 to 1916 as Minor A, the three wave rally to 1943 as Minor B, and Minor C still underway. Minor C has unfolded in five waves down to 1911 (Minute a), a three wave rally to 1929 (Minute b), and now it appears another five waves down are underway. Thus far we have from SPX 1929: 1908-1918-1905. It appears the US market was ready to move higher today, but a late day selloff in Europe started the decline.
Short term support is at the 1901 and 1869 pivots, with resistance at the 1929 pivot and SPX 1943. Short term momentum displays another positive divergence. The short term OEW charts flip-flopped again at the highs today, ending negative, with the reversal level now SPX 1918. The uptrend high was difficult to determine, and this downtrend low as well. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: downtrend trying to bottom
LONG TERM: bull market