tuesday update

SHORT TERM: gap down ruby Tuesday, DOW -140

Overnight the Asian markets finished mixed. Europe opened higher and gained 0.3%. US index futures were lower overnight, and the market gapped down to SPX 1932 at the open. The SPX had closed at 1939 yesterday. Around 10am the SPX hit 1926, then started to rally. Also at 10am ISM services was reported higher: 58.7 v 56.0, and Factory orders were higher: +1.0% v -0.5%. The rally continued until 10:30 when the SPX hit 1935. Then after a pullback to SPX 1930 by 11am, the market rallied to the high of the day at 1936 by 11:30. Then lots of downside action followed. By 12:30 the market hit SPX 1926 again, bounced to 1931 just before 1:30, then dropped to 1916 (Friday’s low) by 1:30. After a bounce to SPX 1921 by 2pm, the market made a lower low at 1914 just past 2 pm. Still not done, the market rallied to SPX 1921 by 2:30, retested 1914 just past 3pm, rallied to 1923, and then dipped to a 1920 close.

For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.90%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.80%. Bonds finished flat, Crude dropped 80 cents, Gold slipped $1, and the USD was higher. Medium term support now drops back to the 1901 and 1869 pivots, with resistance at the 1929 and 1956 pivots. Tomorrow: the Trade deficit at 8:30.

Very active, mostly to the downside today. Lots of small and larger reversals. After the SPX hit 1926 today and rallied to 1936, we were watching to see if 1926 would hold or break down. Right after it did break down we updated the hourly chart to a Minor A at SPX 1916, a Minor B at SPX 1943, and Minor C underway. Thus far we count three waves down from SPX 1943: 1926-1936-1914. Today’s low could have ended a complex flat, or was just part of another double zigzag to the 1901 pivot. At SPX 1900 Minor C = 0.618 Minor A. Intermediate wave iv is still unfolding.

Short term support is at SPX 1914 and the 1901 pivot, with resistance at the 1929 pivot and SPX 1943. Short term momentum is displaying a positive divergence. The OEW short term charts turned negative at the open with the reversal level now SPX 1927. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: downtrend trying to bottom

LONG TERM: bull market

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

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153 Responses to tuesday update

  1. wildmick says:

    tony, a question since im not an expert counter like others.
    if this is a 5th wave starting could it be slower to show impulse because it is a 5th wave and generally the final wave in the series of impulse moves? gracias!

  2. lunker1 says:

    the SPY Int IV analog w Major 4 is in tact. the mid Oct break out gap up held in the Feb correction and possibly the May 27 gap up (open 191.05 low 190.95) will hold today.

  3. bobhopium says:

    Inverted Cup and Handle on Dow and S&P 5min fut charts …just sayin.

  4. RDC says:

    I am very bullish on Gold and Gold Miners. This Russia and Ukraine issue will just keep accelerating in the days ahead.

  5. blackjak100 says:

    Just retraced nearly 61.8% of 1911-1928…should hold

    • 30mtradermom says:

      Fits with Archers proposal posted earlier and your expectation from last week of a 5-3-5 decline… now in the 3 wave up B wave. Expecting two day big up swing.

      • 30mtradermom says:

        in the 3 wave Up B wave having already posted the ‘a’ and the ‘b’ of the B… now in ‘c’ likely.

      • blackjak100 says:

        Yes indeed, but 1911 could still be the bottom. I have no clue if it will play out or not. Will have to watch wave structure from 1911. A close above 1965 would suggest 1911 was the bottom IMO. Either way, I think it’s very probably we head to 1956 pivot from here.

      • blackjak100 says:

        if 1911 is the bottom, then we just witnessed an expanded flat complete from 1985. If int iv is ongoing, will make a lower low as a zigzag. Only 2 viable counts I see.

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