SHORT TERM: volatile Friday, DOW -70
Overnight the Asian markets lost 1.0%. Europe opened lower and lost 1.3%. US index futures were lower overnight, but rallied after the NFP report. At 8:30 monthly Payrolls were reported lower than expected: 209k v 288k, Unemployment ticked up: 6.2% v 6.1%, Personal income (+0.4% v +0.4%)/spending (+0.4% v +0.2%) rose, and PCE prices were higher: +0.1% v +0.2%. The market gapped down at the open to SPX 1926, dipped to 1925, and then started to rally. At 10am Consumer sentiment was reported higher: 81.8 v 81.3, Construction spending was lower: -1.8% v +0.1%, Auto sales were higher, and ISM manufacturing was reported higher: 57.1 v 55.3. The rally hit SPX 1937 just past 10am, and then the market started to pullback. After a decline to SPX 1929 by 10:30, the market bounced to 1934, then declined to 1916 by noon. Hitting several technical support levels the market started to rally. By 12:30 the SPX hit 1922, dipped to 1917 by 1pm, then rose to 1932 by 2:30. Then the market pulled back into the close to end the week at SPX 1925.
For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.35%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.35%. Bonds gained 22 ticks, Crude lost 50 cents, Gold rallied $11, and the USD was lower. Medium term support drops to the 1901 and 1869 pivots, with resistance at the 1929 and 1956 pivots. Today the WLEI was reported lower: 54.1% v 54.2%.
Wild day! Index futures were sharply lower overnight, rallied after the NFP report, but the market still gapped down at the open. After holding the OEW 1929 pivot range, the market rallied, but then broke down below the pivot when hitting SPX 1916. With SPX 1916 representing several technical support levels: the June print low, a double bottom in ES at S1, and a 2.618 relationship between Minor C and Minor A. The market started to rally. Lots to update this weekend, and yes, downtrends confirmed.
Short term support is now at SPX 1916 and the 1901 pivot, with resistance at the 1929 and 1956 pivots. Short term momentum had a very slight positive divergence at the low and headed to neutral. The short term OEW charts remain negative with the reversal level now SPX 1935. Best to your weekend!
MEDIUM TERM: downtrend
LONG TERM: bull market