SHORT TERM: throwback Thursday, DOW -317
Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.3%. Europe opened higher but lost 1.3%. US index futures were lower overnight , and at 8:30 weekly Jobless claims were reported higher: 302k v 284k. The market gapped down at the open to SPX 1955 and continued lower. The SPX had closed at 1970 yesterday. At 9:45 the Chicago PMI was reported lower: 52.6 v 62.6. The decline continued until 12:30 when the SPX hit 1937. From extreme oversold levels the market rallied to SPX 1944 by 2pm, but then headed lower again. Near 3:30 the SPX hit 1931, bounced to 1936, then closed at 1931.
For the day the SPX/DOW were -1.95%, and the NDX/NAZ were -2.10%. Bonds lost 2 ticks, Crude dropped $2.25, Gold slid $14, and the USD was higher. Medium term support drops to the 1929 and 1901 pivots, with resistance now at the 1956 and 1973 pivots. Tomorrow: the monthly Payrolls report (est. +235k) at 8:30, along with Personal income/spending and PCE prices. Then Consumer sentiment, ISM manufacturing, Construction spending and Auto sales all around 10am.
The market gapped down at the open today, below the 1973 pivot range, then lost the 1956 pivot range just past 10:30. The selloff continued, with only a 7 point rally, to SPX 1931 by 3:30. That’s within the 1929 pivot range. So after holding the 1956 pivot range for the entire month of July, the market lost it on the last day of the month trading down to mid-June levels. Selloffs like this have not occurred since the April correction and February correction. Certainly looks like the SPX Intermediate wave iv downtrend will be confirmed soon. Along with the Major wave 4 downtrend in the NDX/NAZ. The DOW confirmed its Intermediate wave d downtrend today. Remember they are all on different counts.
Short term support is at the 1929 and 1901 pivots, with resistance at the 1956 and 1973 pivots. Short term momentum hit extremely oversold today, with a very slight positive divergence. The short term OEW charts are still negative with the reversal level now SPX 1952. Best to your NFP trading tomorrow!
MEDIUM TERM: awaiting downtrend confirmation
LONG TERM: bull market
the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on 
Tony Tony Tony Tony!
LikeLike
$64K question now – 4th wave in progress or complete ABC?
LikeLike
P4 in progress. Since january, at least in Dow and German Dax. Expanding flats.
LikeLike
If the SPX can rally to 1942-1956, and then hold the 1937 level, this thing may not be over yet.
Steve
LikeLike
Steve, over what? down trend or up trend? I will be surprised if SPX rallies above 1961 NOW
LikeLike
Best would SPX closes way above 1930 or better at the highs. Then a much better chance of 1956 target.
LikeLike
Interesting With Argentina: Point is they cant og BK and then become more attractive to New investors like Russia did when flipping into Capitalism. There is no upside to a suddenly debth free Argentina but another Capital sinkhole emerging. Who would buy their New bonds ??
So the only constructive solution is to pay interest to Elliott management found, not fully but partially. This will also reverse the developing trend of Financial sector decline around the world.
LikeLike
this abc or 123 decline is complete …. the 10K tick chart on ES clearly show all the waves are in.
LikeLike
28657 ticks which is a fib number will give you a clearer picture
LikeLike
Jerry, I wish I could use that tick number put thinkorswim limit is 10k ticks….
LikeLike
Interesting, Jerry. Never tried fib numbers for tick charts. Any tips for their use or pointers to material online that I could read?
LikeLike
233 377 610 987 1597 2584 4181 6765 10946 17711 28657
Try some of these and see if they work for you
LikeLike
Starbucks SBUX coming off the support $76.67 looking great, lets see if it can get traction and move higher…
LikeLike
1916 low and then .887 retrace (on SPX, SPY, DIA) after a gap at the 5th wave this AM w +D. cheap long. have a gooden.
LikeLike
the flat since Noon might hit original diamond target 1913 😉
LikeLike
Hi Tony,
Just wondering is this decline(the power,the breath) more than you expected for a Int.4 or would you say its pretty much what you would expect?
Thanks,
Cliff
LikeLike
as expected Cliff
LikeLike
price has now traded entirely outside the lower bollinger band on the daily; this often results in price wanting to move back inside: either side ways or up.
LikeLike
Soul take a look at Aug 2 2011, and how the $spx responded the days following to being outside and below the lower BB.
LikeLike
What is similar from now and 2011 is that high yield broke down now and than.
LikeLike
thanks, that was primary II though and current count suggest this is not Primary IV, but iv of 5 of III
LikeLike
(suggest)~I like how you use a descriptive word that is subject to change:) What level would the $Spx have to get down to before you label a P3 top on SPX 1991, July 23.
LikeLike