thursday update

SHORT TERM: throwback Thursday, DOW -317

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.3%. Europe opened higher but lost 1.3%. US index futures were lower overnight , and at 8:30 weekly Jobless claims were reported higher: 302k v 284k. The market gapped down at the open to SPX 1955 and continued lower. The SPX had closed at 1970 yesterday. At 9:45 the Chicago PMI was reported lower: 52.6 v 62.6. The decline continued until 12:30 when the SPX hit 1937. From extreme oversold levels the market rallied to SPX 1944 by 2pm, but then headed lower again. Near 3:30 the SPX hit 1931, bounced to 1936, then closed at 1931.

For the day the SPX/DOW were -1.95%, and the NDX/NAZ were -2.10%. Bonds lost 2 ticks, Crude dropped $2.25, Gold slid $14, and the USD was higher. Medium term support drops to the 1929 and 1901 pivots, with resistance now at the 1956 and 1973 pivots. Tomorrow: the monthly Payrolls report (est. +235k) at 8:30, along with Personal income/spending and PCE prices. Then Consumer sentiment, ISM manufacturing, Construction spending and Auto sales all around 10am.

The market gapped down at the open today, below the 1973 pivot range, then lost the 1956 pivot range just past 10:30. The selloff continued, with only a 7 point rally, to SPX 1931 by 3:30. That’s within the 1929 pivot range. So after holding the 1956 pivot range for the entire month of July, the market lost it on the last day of the month trading down to mid-June levels. Selloffs like this have not occurred since the April correction and February correction. Certainly looks like the SPX Intermediate wave iv downtrend will be confirmed soon. Along with the Major wave 4 downtrend in the NDX/NAZ. The DOW confirmed its Intermediate wave d downtrend today. Remember they are all on different counts.

Short term support is at the 1929 and 1901 pivots, with resistance at the 1956 and 1973 pivots. Short term momentum hit extremely oversold today, with a very slight positive divergence. The short term OEW charts are still negative with the reversal level now SPX 1952. Best to your NFP trading tomorrow!

MEDIUM TERM: awaiting downtrend confirmation

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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216 Responses to thursday update

  1. Tony Tony Tony Tony!

  2. blackjak100 says:

    $64K question now – 4th wave in progress or complete ABC?

  3. 5wavemodel says:

    If the SPX can rally to 1942-1956, and then hold the 1937 level, this thing may not be over yet.


  4. torehund says:

    Interesting With Argentina: Point is they cant og BK and then become more attractive to New investors like Russia did when flipping into Capitalism. There is no upside to a suddenly debth free Argentina but another Capital sinkhole emerging. Who would buy their New bonds ??
    So the only constructive solution is to pay interest to Elliott management found, not fully but partially. This will also reverse the developing trend of Financial sector decline around the world.

  5. this abc or 123 decline is complete …. the 10K tick chart on ES clearly show all the waves are in.

  6. Starbucks SBUX coming off the support $76.67 looking great, lets see if it can get traction and move higher…

  7. lunker1 says:

    1916 low and then .887 retrace (on SPX, SPY, DIA) after a gap at the 5th wave this AM w +D. cheap long. have a gooden.

  8. Hi Tony,
    Just wondering is this decline(the power,the breath) more than you expected for a Int.4 or would you say its pretty much what you would expect?

  9. soulsurfer says:

    price has now traded entirely outside the lower bollinger band on the daily; this often results in price wanting to move back inside: either side ways or up.

    • pcskier says:

      Soul take a look at Aug 2 2011, and how the $spx responded the days following to being outside and below the lower BB.

      • pcskier says:

        What is similar from now and 2011 is that high yield broke down now and than.

      • soulsurfer says:

        thanks, that was primary II though and current count suggest this is not Primary IV, but iv of 5 of III

      • pcskier says:

        (suggest)~I like how you use a descriptive word that is subject to change:) What level would the $Spx have to get down to before you label a P3 top on SPX 1991, July 23.

  10. JeffMilano says:

    A counter trend rally should be in for mon and tue. May a B wave rally. But, perhaps the market is going to double bottom here before it start to rise for a new top.
    Tony, your tutoring is great. Do you have updated lessons for the students that took the material after a year?
    Does any one have 5min.TNA data from nov25,2013 to July 15,2014

  11. oneandonlyuniverse says:

    They never ring the bell . took off my shorts . 1982 to 18.

  12. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony
    SPY ~ Testing pre-market lows. Gap Fill $1.27 away.
    Enjoy the weekend all.

  13. llerias7 says:

    Is there a chance of a failed V and then this would be the begining of P4?

  14. Lee X says:

    Nice job Tony
    Hey uncle,
    I’m living the dream Northern Hemisphere style but always just an internet connection away from the “real world”

  15. Looks like still wave 3 of A?

  16. rc1269 says:

    HY guys are getting nervous. i just bot some crossover bonds (half junk and half IG rated) from a HY manager down 3 points from yesterday morning. and this is one of their stronger credits. they are hitting bids left and right. not pretty

  17. Looks like this could go all the way to the 1901 pivot. Impressive move.

  18. rc1269 says:

    that Dow rising wedge might finally be coming to bite us

  19. uncle10 says:

    Afternoon. Thx. Tony.
    “Should” be a lot of buyers around 1900. so maybe won’t get all the way there??
    Great weekend all.

  20. pcskier says:

    $INDU 16466 should be a support point for intraday bounce but i don’t think it is going to last long.

  21. oneandonlyuniverse says:

    3 comment rule.

  22. oneandonlyuniverse says:

    May I suggest the ( 3 ) comment rule .
    Thank you

  23. Did’nt the 2011 crash start in August.It’s surpring that no one is mentioning it.

  24. lunker1 says:

    again similar to major 4 in late Jan it looks like another diamond continuation (but on a intraday scale instead of daily) if price breaks down from 1933. diamond is tiled onto its right side. started at 330pm yesterday. 1937 might have been B of C.

  25. xela0 says:

    Nervous traders drinking lots of coffee, huh?:)

  26. lunker1 says:

    IHS 1913?

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