tuesday update

SHORT TERM: choppy pullback day, DOW -70

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.8%. European markets opened higher and gained 0.5%. US index futures were higher overnight, and at 9am Case-Shiller was reported lower: +9.3% v +10.8%. The market opened three points above yesterday’s SPX 1979 close and continued to move higher. At 10am Consumer confidence was reported at a seven year high: 90.9 v 85.2. Around 10:30 the SPX hit 1985, was slightly overbought, and began to pullback. By 11:30 the SPX had declined to 1974, then rallied to 1982 by 1:30. Another decline followed, taking the SPX to 1970 by the close.

For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.45%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.15%. Bonds gained 8 ticks, Crude lost 75 cents, Gold slipped $4, and the USD was higher. Medium term support drops to the 1956 and 1929 pivots, with resistance at the 1973 and 2019 pivots. Tomorrow is FOMC day! At 8:15 the ADP index, 8:30 Q2 GDP (est. +3.45%), then at 2pm the FOMC statement.

The market opened higher today, came within 6 points of the all time high, then went into pullback mode for the rest of the day. We entered the week looking at two possibilities: 1. a subdividing Minor 5; and 2. a diagonal Minor 5. The choppy activity on Monday/Tuesday have significantly lowered the likelihood of option #1. That leaves us with the diagonal triangle Minor wave 5, and possibly an ‘e’ wave failure at SPX 1985. If the SPX loses the OEW 1973 pivot range (1966-1980) that might be what just occurred today.

Short term support drops to the 1956 and 1929 pivots, with resistance at the 1973 pivot and SPX 1991. Short term momentum touched overbought in the am then ended the day oversold. The short term OEW charts are back in the flip-flop mode, ended negative, with the reversal level now SPX 1978. Best to your trading the often volatile FOMC day!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

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123 Responses to tuesday update

  1. manunidhi21 says:

    Namaste Tony !
    Still a green Int iii. ?
    its below 1956


  2. gtoptions says:

    SPY/SPX ~ 5 Bearish Daily candles in a row! Failure to break higher. All the signs are there for a break lower. GL


  3. pcskier says:


    Inverted cup and handle with high yield JNK. Confirmation to sell equities now.


    • Kevin M says:

      looks like some positive div there,,,,,,i’d be a buyer of jnk


      • pcskier says:

        yeah, you have the positive divergence because JNK is hitting a long term trend line as shown here

        JNK may bounce to it’s 20 DMA which is now below it’s 50 DMA but than the probability is sellers will emerge sending JNK down to it’s 200 in quick order. BUY JNK, but it’s upside looks limited and it’s downside looks great.


      • pcskier says:


  4. ariez5 says:

    On your SPX 60′ chart, could one draw a line from the minor 4 bottom through the ‘b’ label through today’s lows? If you keep the other trend line through ‘a’ and ‘c’ you would see a sort of expanding triangle. Would that be preposterous for a 5th wave?


  5. blackjak100 says:

    Did we just see an x wave complete and now headed lower? Potential DZZ Down to 1940’s?


  6. oneandonlyuniverse says:

    I’m a seller


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