monday update

SHORT TERM: lower open then rally, DOW +22

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.3%. European markets opened higher, but lost 0.1%. US index futures were lower overnight, and the market opened one point below Friday’s SPX 1978 close. In the opening minutes the SPX hit 1979 then began to pullback. At 10am Pending home sales were reported lower: -1.1% v +6.1%. Around 10:30 the SPX hit 1967, was extremely oversold, and began to rally. At 1:30 the SPX had rallied to 1982, then pulled back to close at 1979.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.10%, and the NDX/NAZ were mixed. Bonds lost 4 ticks, Crude slipped 50 cents, Gold dipped $2, and the USD was flat. Medium term support remains at the 1973 and 1956 pivots, with resistance at the 2019 and 2070 pivots. Tomorrow: Case-Shiller at 9am, then Consumer confidence at 10am.

The market opened slightly lower today, bounced, and then headed below Friday’s lows to SPX 1967. Then after getting extremely oversold, and barely holding the Minor wave 5 rising wedge scenario, the market started to rally. After the SPX hit 1976 we updated the SPX hourly chart with a Minute wave d at 1967. Under this diagonal triangle Minor 5 scenario the market should now hold that SPX 1967 low and rally to complete Minute wave e of the diagonal. The count posted on the SPX daily chart suggests a rally underway as well.

Short term support remains at the 1973 and 1956 pivots, with resistance at SPX 1991 and SPX 2000. Short term momentum hit extremely oversold early then rose to over neutral. The OEW short term charts turned positive, with the reversal level now SPX 1977. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

Investor
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64 Responses to monday update

  1. a = c at 1970 spx….. going long here one more time tight stop

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  2. magicianme says:

    I know most of you don’t use tick charts, but if you fire up a tick chart for the ES – say a 10,000 tick – you should see the second shoulder of a H&S forming with the first shoulder mid-day yesterday and the head being today’s high. The pattern is not so clear on the H1.

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    • magicianme says:

      I hope at least one of you got short at the top of this right shoulder. I’ve set my stop to B/E and am holding out for the target of 1956 in the ES 09/14 … but that may not happen till the after hours market.

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      • cmucha68 says:

        If there is a surprise geopolitically yes perhaps. Otherwise I guess whipsaw in today’s range.

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      • magicianme says:

        Hmm, the agent for the move down to my target could be the European indices being weak when EU opens tomorrow. But we may not even need to wait that long.

        I made six points earlier in the day and would have normally retired but this short was too good an opportunity. My reasoning which I didn’t have time to post earlier: Apart from the H&S, the price had stalled in its upwards move and immediately above the stall was an area of congestion (1975.25 – 1976.25) that formed when price was on its way down – the congestion itself is clearly visible only on tick charts. That made for a conveniently close stop. To add to that there was a -ve MACD divergence on my higher frame tick chart and to crown it all the last up bar in that head was formed on very low volume buying. All made for the perfect storm.

        Highly likely we’ll take out today’s low before EoD and that itself might be enough momentum for a post-close drop to the target and we may not need the EU indices to play ball.

        (Sorry if I sound like I’m selling tick charts. I’m not, but I have to mention them because otherwise my reasoning won’t make sense)

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      • Magicianme, great call there….I think there are many on here that use tick charts, incl myself, and greatly appreciate your tick chart views…..luckily for me I was stop out of my long ES with a tiny gain.

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      • drwarmington says:

        EL MATADOR …. How do you get stopped out of a position with a gain??? Please tell us and we will always make $$$$

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      • drwarmington – One way to get stop out is to place a trailing stop order. as in my case, I went long ES at 1968.5 with a 6-pt trailing stop ordering at around 10:40 am. ES rallied to 1975.25 by 12:25pm before reversing to downtrend. since I had a 6-pt trailing stop order I was stopped out at 1969.25

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  3. I’m currently long gold but i’m up against the wall trying to figure out where gold is head from here. Would greatly appreciate it if anyone on the board here could kindly share their thoughts on where they think gold his head from here….thx

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    • cmucha68 says:

      Perhaps a little bounce to 1300 but it looks somewhat ugly.

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    • Gold is still in a bear market. Amazingly wave 4 of this prolonged bear market appears to have finished earlier today. Gold has just completed 5 waves (that’s why your understandably nervous) which could be the start of many such declines if indeed wave 5 has started as gold will be on the nose for another year or so. On the positive side a corrective rally will now follow the very recent $16 decline. It fell from $1312 so its difficult to see it climb any higher than that. I would sell into that rally. The rally will be partly corrective and partly inspired by stocks crashing. Best of luck.

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  4. 11.40an New York time … DOW, SPX, FTSE & DAX all have completed a 5 wave decline. Now performing odd looking abc corrections. Next up another 5 wave down. The first decline was just a baby bear decline. Poppa bear up next.

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  5. Went long ES at 1968.5 for wave c of E of Triangle

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    • perversionofthemean says:

      What’s your target range for it?
      Am I correct that c of E will be terminal, and this board is expecting that minor 5 then ends and Int. 4 begins?
      Last, are throw-overs fairly common in an ET?

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  6. Elliott Wave Forecast July 29, 2014 – $SPX $DJIA $COMPQ – Must break 618 levels at the open http://stks.co/c0oqY
    Positions Update July 29 – $AAPL W3, $YY 2 before 3, $TQQQ breakout 3, $NUGT top of B break http://stks.co/s0au0
    Top 5 ‘Net July 29 Elliott Wave – $BIDU $FB $QIHU Big upside in W3, $YELP $YHOO must break B http://stks.co/c0or2

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