thursday update

SHORT TERM: drift higher continues, DOW -3

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.3%. Europe opened lower but gained 0.5%. US index futures were higher overnight, and at 8:30 weekly Jobless claims were reported the lowest in 8 years: 284k v 302k. The market opened at SPX 1989, two points above yesterday’s close, then hit 1990 in the first few minutes. After a pullback to SPX 1986 right after New home sales were reported lower: 406k v 504k, the market rallied to 1991 by 11:30. The pullback hit SPX 1986 just after 3pm. Then the market bounced to close at SPX 1988.

For the day the SPX/DOW were mixed, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.05%. Bonds lost 14 ticks, Crude dropped $1.10, Gold fell $13, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 1973 and 1956 pivots, with resistance at the 2019 and 2070 pivots. Tomorrow: Durable goods orders at 8:30.

The market opened higher again today for the third day in a row. After making a new high at SPX 1991, and setting up a short term negative divergence, the market started to pullback. So far the pullback is a modest 5 points. But if it extends further the market could be in the fourth wave from the Minor 4 low at SPX 1956: 1980-1966-1991-.

Short term support is at SPX 1986 and the 1973 pivot, with resistance at SPX 2000 and the 2019 pivot. Short term momentum declined after a negative divergence. The short term OEW charts ended positive with the reversal level now SPX 1987. Best to your Friday trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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79 Responses to thursday update

  1. great GS squid trying to temper with our wave count….errrrr!

  2. oneandonlyuniverse says:

    see $spx 1963 early next week

  3. Don’t see anything stopping this drop till we get back to 1966, lower end of the 1973 pivot.

  4. rc1269 says:

    closed the tuesday gap, any reason why we don’t just rally here? as per usual

  5. cmucha68 says:

    I think if we stay above 1976 in SPX from now on it could close the gap to the upside and perhaps finishing the day around 1983/84. But still plenty of trading minutes left for the day.

  6. llerias7 says:

    DAX collapse…party is over?

  7. H D says:

    “DJI did HH’s last T, W, TH and SPX this week?” and then….
    Nice short Uncle!

  8. mjtplayer says:

    The DOW is dangerously close to breaking out (lower) of the large bearish wedge; looks like the bottom of the wedge sits around 16,950-ish

  9. jobjas says:

    Do not have access to charts but looks like NDX count same as SPX – both have topped.

  10. If the selling keeps going, we could hit critical mass snow ball effect down very hard. We haven’t had that in a long time. I see support at the SPX 1950.

  11. blackjak100 says:

    If this an ED and this is wave iv, I would like to see it bottom 1973-1975 for a nice abc.

  12. JeffMilano says:

    Hello Tony,
    can I put a small add for what I need? Thank you.

    If there is anyone that either knows where to get or has TNA from nov.15,2013 to jul.15,2014 please reply and and let me know how or where to get them. — Thank you in advance.

    • timing101 says:

      Try emailing Tim Knight. His website is Slope of Hope. He founded Prophet Charts, and he might be able to help.

    • uncle10 says:

      I would call people/brokers- Interactivebrokers, Think or swim, td, SC, etc. maybe ? gl

  13. blackjak100 says:

    Now what tony with the key overlap? ED in progress?

  14. pcskier says:

    Perfect inverted cup and handle on the 2hr JNK charts yesterday at close. High yield will dictate what happens to equities.

  15. Elliott Wave Positions Update July 25 – $AAPL $TQQQ $NUGT [wavegenius]
    Elliott Wave Forecast July 25 – $SPX $DJIA $COMPQ – Best case zigzag holds and is bought immediately

  16. torehund says:

    Whats notable is Shanghas day run, looks like its rolling up after months of flatlining. Lets see how we respond here in the US, commodities cant just og any further Down without hampering supply.

  17. blackjak100 says:

    Things could be interesting here because if minute iv is in progress, there is only a small window this wave can hit, 1981-1982 in OEW terms. I’m under the impression micro iv of miunte iii is underway, but the futures will have to recover a little bit in the next 2 hrs. As of now, it looks the open would be around 1984ish.

  18. Chris DAmbra says:

    I have a question for anyone who can answer, specifically TC – if the 1074 Oct 2011 low was the beginning of wave 3 and this level around 2000 or less is the top (let’s assume), than on that scale, shouldn’t the 4th retrace be at least 38.2%? That targets in the neighborhood of 1640, which would make most on CNBC jump out the window. However, if you look at my chart, you’ll see it doesn’t violate the rising uptrend from the 2009 low.$SPX&p=D&yr=6&mn=6&dy=0&id=p21199252877&a=358423907

  19. 5wavemodel says:

    Thursday’s Market.

    I am still looking for the current wave to complete between 1998 and 2008.


  20. Hiya all, be on the lookout for a possible inverse head and shoulders pattern in IBB in the next couple of days. Forming the possible right shoulder now. Crazy market this one!

  21. blackjak100 says:

    To be exact, I think we are in micro iv of minute iii of minor 5 in OEW terms. I think TC would agree with this count. I still expect a higher high tomorrow in the S&P despite the futures being a little weak now. However, they can jump up very fast which is what I think happens before market open.

  22. valunvstr says:

    RUT looks identical to 2011. See below…also, amazing that no one is talking about the problems in Portugal. Leads me to believe that Europe will be the spark for the next sell off and no one is paying attention. Plus, as Tony noted, European Markets look pathetic. Might not happen tomorrow, but it’s out there.

    • Yes Valunvstr, Europe’s seen better days in more ways than one. And if I may say, I think the reaction highs look in in the after hours markets (8.12pm New York time). Personally I’m not waiting ’til tomorrow. But please always do your own due diligence. Happy trading.

    • rc1269 says:

      not sure what blogs you frequent, but in my circles everyone is talking about Portugal/Espirito Santo. guys have been punting euro bank bonds for days on the concern of contagion over there. BES is the second largest Portugeuse bank after all.

  23. The charts were meandering today but a closer inspection after the close revealed some clarity. At 11.35am New York time it looks like the SPX started its long awaited correction with the conclusion of Minor 3. TC you will have to amend your count me thinks. Today’s action clearly shows 5 waves down starting at 11.35am, then 3 up, 5 down, 3 up and 5 down. (Note: The last 5 down came mostly after the close but the pattern looks as good as the first 2.) The real “tell” that we are now in a meaningful decline is that the 2nd “3 up” overlapped the 1st “5 down” which means it was highly likely 2 of 3 of a of Minor 4. That means the market closed starting 3 of 3 of a of Minor 4 which correlates nicely with the price action in the last 15 minutes before the close and the price action after hours. Time to get out of Dodge for you longhorns.

    The DOW and the SPX have the same pattern. The FTSE and the DAX both completed an abc upward correction in their after hours market just as the DOW and SPX started heading down at 3.45pm. As coincidence would have it they also look to be starting there own Wave 3 downs (but of a higher degree).

    Nothing is for certain in the markets. One needs to do their own due diligence. This is just a heads up.

      • A slight correction to my post above. Sorry it’s very early here in Australia (or very late). At 11.35pm Minor 3 did not top out. TC, I apologize, I believe you do have this correct. Minor 4 is the one I think will need re-positioning because what did top out today is an irregular b of Minor 4. So I make the present count 2 of 3 of a of c of Minor 4. Same deal … down we go. I like 16700 and 1940 as target practice.

  24. bouraq says:

    Gold bottoming?

    • RDC says:

      Thanks Bouraq. I started long position in gold today.

      • blackjak100 says:

        Thanks Bouraq! From an EW perspective, I think gold is bottoming but today was not the bottom. Looking for $1275-$1280 for nice tradeable bottom myself. If you went long today, I think you can make money barring you take profits around $1315ish.

    • Thx Bouraq. I always enjoy your charts. I think that any fail bounce under 1305ish will lead to lower low of say 1274ish for this continuation of wave c

  25. cmucha68 says:

    After hours trading looks weak in SPX like it was with the Dow the entire week. Test of short term support 1973 could take place tomorrow as reversal at 1987 and support 1986 has been broken. Some blogs are talking of a geopolitical surprise tomorrow or even a whatever sort of attack.

  26. szaidi999 says:

    RUT chart looks pretty bearish, are we at the edge of the cliff yet?

  27. blackjak100 says:

    Thanks tony! I’m still long, but thinking we may come up short of 2000. I like Fiona’s and Steve’s target of 1995ish. Do we need another 4 pts down to consider minute iv is in progress?

    • 5wavemodel says:

      Thanks BJ. I think the 1998-2003 level is a critical level.I know I tend to over-complicate things, so I will try to keep this simple. In my view, the SPX is in Wave 3 of a 5 wave sequence that should complete the sequence from 1074.77,or Tony’s PIII. The minimum level for this wave to complete is 2003. The 5th wave of that wave currently has a target of 1998-2008. Si if this wave completes below 2003, which is possible, it may mean that there is a larger corrective wave occurring. This would have the effect of extending this move.


      • Steve, I enjoy reading your post. I am confused with your last sentance. If we have a larger decline then what you are thinking, then that means we are headed higher then 1998-2008

        , I am expecting something totally different. 90 percent of everyone is on a similar count. So, either a blow of top to 2150-2250 or we crash sooner then expected. Face book and apple can only keep this market going for,so long. What ever the count, I still expect a low in October in the 1600-1700 range. Something besides war in irag, Syria, Israel, Russia, will be a catalyst. Most likely out of Europe. Something will happen that will scare the shit of investors. Otherwise amazon will be down 10 -15 percent today and make new highs next week and the cycle higher continues

      • Sorry, but amzn is on toast birdie….it’s on it way to 240ish over the few weeks…..we should see $300-284 by Monday or tuesday

      • sorry for the misspelling…let’s try it again…

        Sorry, but amzn is one toast birdie….it is on it’s way to 240ish over the few weeks…..we should see $300-284 by Monday or tuesday

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