wednesday update

SHORT TERM: rally continues, DOW -27

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.4%. European markets opened lower but gained 0.1%. US index futures were higher overnight, and the market opened three points above yesterday’s SPX 1984 close. In the opening minutes of trading the market dipped to SPX 1982, then began to rally to new highs. At 10:30 the SPX hit 1989, pulled back to 1985 by 12:30, then rallied back to 1989. A small dip ended the day at SPX 1987.

For the day the SPX/DOW were mixed, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.50%. Bonds gained 1 tick, Crude rose 60 cents, Gold dipped $2, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 1973 and 1956 pivots, with resistance at the 2019 and 2070 pivots. Tomorrow: weekly Jobless claims at 8:30, then New home sales at 10am.

The market opened higher today, made an all time high early, then after a small pullback hit SPX 1989. Clearing the previous resistance of SPX 1986 now allows for the uptrend to move towards the 2000 level – next resistance. Thus far we count three waves up from the Minor 4 low at SPX 1956: 1980-1966-1989.

Short term support is now at SPX 1986 and the 1973 pivot, with resistance at SPX 2000 and the 2019 pivot. Short term momentum ended the day just under overbought. The short term OEW charts remain positive with the reversal level now SPX 1985. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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66 Responses to wednesday update

  1. manunidhi21 says:

    Can Americans be apologetic ? Then why expect Russsians to be.

    Human life has no value for all those countries who make Arms.
    First they make it and then market it through Wars.

    • tony caldaro says:

      As they say in football:
      “A good defense is the best offense.”
      The wild west ended more than a century ago in this country.
      Why is it continuing in other countries?

      • manunidhi21 says:

        Wild West ended by dropping Atomic bomb at places in span of three days even after seeing the disaster from the first bomb.
        Bomb was made to explode above ground so that maximum collateral damage is witnessed.
        “You reap what you sow”- Iraq, Iran, Taliban. So America is in its reaping time.

    • torehund says:

      Today the police warned of a possible imminent terrorist action by islam extremists.
      Norway have been shielding refugees of which some have turned into Islam terrorists.

  2. scottycj1 says:

    Look Outen………..Belowen

  3. rc1269 says:

    well, we almost made it to 1996 on thursday. taking my modest gains and calling it a day on that one.

  4. Tony

    Is 1990 in the same pivot range as 2000 and could 1990 be top of wave 5 (for Int III?)

    Or you think it was top of mini wave 3 and then 4 , 5 to 2000 next ?

    Thank you

  5. rc1269 says:

    Banco Espirito Santo seeking creditor protection. just announced

  6. uncle10 says:

    Thanks Tony.
    I am exiting long and getting small short. gl all.

  7. Ticks charts clearly showing a lot of 3 waves moves up and down on this wedge…..and it’s looking topsie too

  8. torehund says:

    KOL, looks to be attempting a break out.

  9. llerias7 says:

    Thinking in a time frame, FOMC meeting next week might coincide with the “arrival of this train to the final station” i.e. spx 2000-2020…5 days trade…
    What do you think?

    • cmucha68 says:

      I think air is getting very very thin up here. One more event like another plane crash or another minor catastrophe and market will quickly plunge like a stone. Best excuse to take profit. Dow looks also very tired. It may even not need any bad event to cause the market to pullback more severely.

      • budfox9450 says:

        Investors, are not concern with aircraft
        accidents, wars, even poor home buying
        fundamentals. IMO. It is all about the
        US Fed…Have a🙂 day….

  10. scorp100 says:

    Hello Tony, any chance SOX might be reversing from here?

  11. CygnetNoir says:

    Big Ups get hiccups sometimes. This one could get pretty bad if SP-500 can’t hold 1684 on a close.

  12. rosekdiem says:

    “Thus far we count three waves up from the Minor 4 low at SPX 1956: 1980-1966-1989”
    Does the quote above assume that from yesterday’s close we still have a fourth and a fifth wave up to complete Minor 5?

    Or, can it still subdivide into more waves until Minor 5 is completed?

    And, once Minor 5 is finally completed, does that mean that intermediate iii is also completed or will there be another a/b count (or counts) before the intermediate iii is completed?

    Obviously, I’m confused.

  13. as long as we ignore all GDP reports, housing and consumption we are fine. Buying bubble highs is dangerous.

    • scorp100 says:

      I don’t know if there is a way to measure retail investors participation. But it’s just my opinion that they won’t let market fall until enough retail investors or small funds etc. are in.

  14. luckily for me, my ES short position from yday was stopped out with a small gain, now I can look forward to re-engaging short position at a more attractive price as this minor 5 wave completes itself within the wedge

  15. PreMarket Elliott Wave Forecast 7.24 – $SPX $DJIA $COMPQ setting up for continuation of 3’s

  16. sunset2014 says:


    Does Margin Debt factor into the OEW count? I ask because its been declining since Feb of this year. In the past the market has peaked between 0 and 5 months of margin debt peaking. We are currently in month 5. Your views on this aspect are very much appreciated.


  17. mkt. update and plan for thursday (within blog’s comments sect.):

  18. rc1269 says:

    maybe the Argentine default on July 30 will be our next move

  19. student8888 says:

    Mr. C, when 5 waves up are completed, would that be the end of minor 5 or just minute i of minor 5 according to OEW?

  20. 5wavemodel says:

    Wednesday’s Market.

    I am looking for the current wave to complete between 1998 and 2008.


  21. JeffMilano says:

    Need TNA 5min. price data from nov.15, 2013 to jul.15, 2014. Can you share or sell data for a small fee. Tx!

  22. mike7x says:

    Thanks Tony. SOX looks weak. Semis, as well as Boston and Chicago.

  23. Hi Tony

    Once Minor wave 4 tops , how many points do you then expect Int wave IV to go down ?

    Thank you and all the best

  24. bouraq says:

    SPX 2000 not a dream anymore:

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