SHORT TERM: rally continues, DOW -27
Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.4%. European markets opened lower but gained 0.1%. US index futures were higher overnight, and the market opened three points above yesterday’s SPX 1984 close. In the opening minutes of trading the market dipped to SPX 1982, then began to rally to new highs. At 10:30 the SPX hit 1989, pulled back to 1985 by 12:30, then rallied back to 1989. A small dip ended the day at SPX 1987.
For the day the SPX/DOW were mixed, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.50%. Bonds gained 1 tick, Crude rose 60 cents, Gold dipped $2, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 1973 and 1956 pivots, with resistance at the 2019 and 2070 pivots. Tomorrow: weekly Jobless claims at 8:30, then New home sales at 10am.
The market opened higher today, made an all time high early, then after a small pullback hit SPX 1989. Clearing the previous resistance of SPX 1986 now allows for the uptrend to move towards the 2000 level – next resistance. Thus far we count three waves up from the Minor 4 low at SPX 1956: 1980-1966-1989.
Short term support is now at SPX 1986 and the 1973 pivot, with resistance at SPX 2000 and the 2019 pivot. Short term momentum ended the day just under overbought. The short term OEW charts remain positive with the reversal level now SPX 1985. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend
LONG TERM: bull market
Tony!
Can Americans be apologetic ? Then why expect Russsians to be.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran_Air_Flight_655
Human life has no value for all those countries who make Arms.
First they make it and then market it through Wars.
As they say in football:
“A good defense is the best offense.”
The wild west ended more than a century ago in this country.
Why is it continuing in other countries?
Wild West ended by dropping Atomic bomb at places in span of three days even after seeing the disaster from the first bomb.
Bomb was made to explode above ground so that maximum collateral damage is witnessed.
“You reap what you sow”- Iraq, Iran, Taliban. So America is in its reaping time.
http://www.thelocal.no/20140224/norway-terror-threat-to-rise-in-2014
Today the police warned of a possible imminent terrorist action by islam extremists.
Norway have been shielding refugees of which some have turned into Islam terrorists.
Look Outen………..Belowen
Sorry….do not speak Dutch.
well, we almost made it to 1996 on thursday. taking my modest gains and calling it a day on that one.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/eu-looks-set-to-ban-trading-in-russian-stocks-ft-2014-07-24
Hi Fino..
It says EU preparing..the lifeline is in pipelines(oil) is all Russian.
Tony !
another good read..
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/five-things-we-should-have-learned-from-world-war-i-2014-07-24?link=MW_Nav_NV
Tony
Is 1990 in the same pivot range as 2000 and could 1990 be top of wave 5 (for Int III?)
Or you think it was top of mini wave 3 and then 4 , 5 to 2000 next ?
Thank you
The more people scream 2000 and celebrate it before it happens you will see the exact opposite takes place. Market pulls back.
we already made it to 1991
Tony , is 1991 in the same pivot range as 2000 and enough for a top ? That was what I tried to ask about.
still only see three waves
Stop expecting Tony to hold your hand.
Jeez doesn’t he do enough for you.
Banco Espirito Santo seeking creditor protection. just announced
sorry. esprito santo financial group. not quite the same, just to clarify
Bullish…
bullish like Lehman…
Thanks Tony.
I am exiting long and getting small short. gl all.
Thanks Uncle10. Your posts are read and appreciated and your timing has been good lately. GL.
Hey Thanks Buddy. win some lose some like everyone…. tomorrow should be interesting. gl
Ticks charts clearly showing a lot of 3 waves moves up and down on this wedge…..and it’s looking topsie too
http://www.amateur-investor.net/AII_Daily_Report_July_23_2014.htm
Namaste Tony !
nice read..
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/greenspan-worries-about-false-dawns-fed-exit-2014-07-24?pagenumber=2
good one!
namaste
KOL, looks to be attempting a break out.
Hi,Ford possible inverted H&S
http://br.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshot&u=M6GruK%2F%2Byo6ipBoz%2Bkyiu%2BISFlFY2plZ‘
Thinking in a time frame, FOMC meeting next week might coincide with the “arrival of this train to the final station” i.e. spx 2000-2020…5 days trade…
What do you think?
I think air is getting very very thin up here. One more event like another plane crash or another minor catastrophe and market will quickly plunge like a stone. Best excuse to take profit. Dow looks also very tired. It may even not need any bad event to cause the market to pullback more severely.
Investors, are not concern with aircraft
accidents, wars, even poor home buying
fundamentals. IMO. It is all about the
US Fed…Have a 🙂 day….
Hello Tony, any chance SOX might be reversing from here?
-div low for the month, certainly possible
Big Ups get hiccups sometimes. This one could get pretty bad if SP-500 can’t hold 1684 on a close.
Thanks for update.
“Thus far we count three waves up from the Minor 4 low at SPX 1956: 1980-1966-1989”
Does the quote above assume that from yesterday’s close we still have a fourth and a fifth wave up to complete Minor 5?
Or, can it still subdivide into more waves until Minor 5 is completed?
And, once Minor 5 is finally completed, does that mean that intermediate iii is also completed or will there be another a/b count (or counts) before the intermediate iii is completed?
Obviously, I’m confused.
thanks,
rose
Rose,
Three waves up suggest waves 4 and 5 yet to come.
Yes it can subdivide into more waves and go higher.
Thanks Tony. It seems like I’ll have to wait till Christmas before I can go long at int.iii !
Ooops. I meant int. iv!
the relentless bull
as long as we ignore all GDP reports, housing and consumption we are fine. Buying bubble highs is dangerous.
I don’t know if there is a way to measure retail investors participation. But it’s just my opinion that they won’t let market fall until enough retail investors or small funds etc. are in.
luckily for me, my ES short position from yday was stopped out with a small gain, now I can look forward to re-engaging short position at a more attractive price as this minor 5 wave completes itself within the wedge
PreMarket Elliott Wave Forecast 7.24 – $SPX $DJIA $COMPQ setting up for continuation of 3’s http://wavegenius.com/?p=9052
Tony,
Does Margin Debt factor into the OEW count? I ask because its been declining since Feb of this year. In the past the market has peaked between 0 and 5 months of margin debt peaking. We are currently in month 5. Your views on this aspect are very much appreciated.
Sunset
Hi Sunset,
Have really ever studied it in relation to the markets.
Thanks Tony. Have a great day.
mkt. update and plan for thursday (within blog’s comments sect.): https://standardpoor.wordpress.com
SPX minor 3 in
http://jobjas.wordpress.com/
Where is Minor 4 in your chart ?
1930
Do you have a time frame in mind ? Thanks
maybe the Argentine default on July 30 will be our next move
Mr. C, when 5 waves up are completed, would that be the end of minor 5 or just minute i of minor 5 according to OEW?
unknown at this point
I know tony counts 3 waves from 1956 which is how I see it as well, but technically you could count it as 5 and consider the pattern complete. Very low probability however.
Wednesday’s Market.
http://5wavemodel.blogspot.com/2014/07/wednesdays-market-07232014.html
I am looking for the current wave to complete between 1998 and 2008.
Thanks,
Steve
http://fat-pitch.blogspot.ca/2014/07/fund-managers-current-asset-allocation.html
Thanks Tony.
Thanks Fiona. Very informative.
Need TNA 5min. price data from nov.15, 2013 to jul.15, 2014. Can you share or sell data for a small fee. Tx!
Thanks Tony. SOX looks weak. Semis, as well as Boston and Chicago.
NDX pattern: http://marketchartpattern.com/indices/nasdaq-100-futures-ndx-reaches-important-level-23-july-2014/
GBPUSD run up resulted in 500 pips since the pattern caught the low discussed in April. Could still attempt 1.7300: http://marketchartpattern.com/forex/500-pips-profits-since-pattern-discussed-gbpusd-23-july-2014/
Crude oil bounces back: http://marketchartpattern.com/commodities/crude-oil-wti-contract-bounces-back-23-july-2014/
Hi Tony
Once Minor wave 4 tops , how many points do you then expect Int wave IV to go down ?
Thank you and all the best
Cycle.
Good question!
NDX clear count
http://jobjas.wordpress.com/
SPX 2000 not a dream anymore:
#SPX #DJIA #GOLD #OIL #AUDUSD #EURUSD #GBPUSD
http://www.tradingchannels.co.uk/2014/07/spx-2000-not-dream-anymore.html