tuesday update

SHORT TERM: gap up opening, DOW +62

Overnight the Asian markets gained 1.2%. Europe opened higher and gained 1.3%. US index futures were higher overnight. At 8:30 the CPI was reported higher: +0.3% v +0.4%, then at 9am the FHFA was reported higher: +0.4% v +0.0%. The market gapped up at the open to SPX 1981 and continued to rally. The SPX had closed at 1974 yesterday. At 10am Existing home sales were reported higher: 5.04mn v 4.89mn. The rally continued until 11am when the SPX made a marginal new high at 1986. It then pulled back to SPX 1981 by 3pm, and bounced to 1984 to end the day.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.45, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.70%. Bonds gained 6 ticks, Crude slipped 50 cents, Gold lost $6, and the USD rallied. Medium term support remains at the 1973 and 1956 pivots, with resistance at the 2019 and 2070 pivots. Nothing on the economic schedule tomorrow.

The market gapped up at the open, the tenth gap opening in the past 12 trading days. The SPX opened above the recent 1980 high, at 1981, then cleared 1984, but ran into resistance again at 1986. The marginal new high was barely sufficient to update the charts to the alternate count. We are now counting last Thursday’s SPX 1956 low as the end of Minor 4, with Minor wave 5 underway. The activity over the past two weeks, or so, was not enough to break the uptrend. Despite some quite negative news. Should the market clear SPX 1986 the next resistance level is SPX 2000: Minor 5 equals 0.618 Minor 1. After that we have the OEW 2019 pivot.

Short term support is at the 1973 and 1956 pivots, with resistance at SPX 1986 and SPX 2000. Short term momentum neared quite overbought and then backed off some. The short term OEW charts remain positive with the reversal level now SPX 1980. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

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66 Responses to tuesday update

  1. oneandonlyuniverse says:

    Mining stocks – exit stage left / see them going south . Sellers take down $spx 1973 take another look

  2. I don’t like the look of this minute iii of minor 5, nevertheless it should top out near today’s ATH….time to get short for minute iv of minor 5

  3. SOX down 2% and the NDX up 0.5%. Interesting divergence, or just noise?

  4. sunset2014 says:

    Hi Tony

    Does the recent count change the timing of a Primary III top in August?

    Kindest Regards


  5. H D says:

    “We are buried beneath the weight of information, which is being confused with knowledge; quantity is being confused with abundance and wealth with happiness.
    We are monkeys with money and guns.” Tom Waits

    another HH and 5 point hit? DJI did HH’s last T, W, TH and SPX this week? Be well.

  6. sloop says:

    Cycleanalysis,you have too many questions for someone with such a fancy name ,lol

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  8. manunidhi21 says:

    Namaste Tony!

    Any chance of the old count to prevail as Dow and NAZ both not crossing previous highs.
    I think 1989 in inclusive in 1953-1986 range 🙂

  9. Tony

    Am I correct when 2000 or 2020 is likely a target for wave 5 ?

    Quite often you will see a wave 5 that is equal to wave 1, or 61.8% to 76.4% of wave 3. If there is a wave 5 extension, then wave 5 is commonly 161% of wave 3, or 161% of the sum of waves 1 and 3.

  10. llerias7 says:

    Minor 5 oficially underway…next (Final) stop…2000´s!

  11. Scott Ford says:

    I’m getting so tired of this argument….. http://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2014/07/23/apologies-but-the-sp-500-is-not-at-an-all-time-high/

    The S&P is 10% below its all time high?? Tell that to my 401k….

    • rc1269 says:

      kinda agree with you. fundamentally true, but economically irrelevant. when i sell my stocks i get paid nominal $ not real $, so who really cares

  12. JeffMilano says:

    928 If you have tna 5 min.data from nov15,2013 to jul.15,2014 are you willing to share or sell the data.
    Thank you

  13. most money managers feel the market is in bubble territory, individual investors feels the same. seems the only buying is companies buying back their own stock hey they have to make their numbers and buying back their stock does it. I will say you have seen the highs for the year in this 1980 or 1990 range and I stand my comment if your buying I hope you save your receipt.

  14. torehund says:

    One notice: I remember around the date 21 Decin 2012, looking at the Nikkey and its bear flag. At that time a large ABC Down would have taken the index to about Zero. At that very moment Abe devalued…
    In a larger perspective this Mayan date signals a turn date into an inflationary environment where the Governments and their subdivisions of banks and hedge funds attempt to buy up whatever they can, therebye minisculing the value of Money and inflating just about everything else. China is entering the phase Japan faced in 2012. Buying up the assets “saves the economy” and increases the wealth of the banks and government agencies. Its a win, win at least in the short term.

  15. rc1269 says:

    10yr rates look ready to collapse

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  17. Caldaro so I reading the map correctly 1920 is off the table the “downtrend ended at 1956” so we are now up to going to 2019ish to finished P3 . Then p4 for that long awaited 15 to 20% correction? Again Caldaro I love the blog you provide and respect your knowledge of the markets. I am not pointing a finger at you sir but the tool/ map/ guideline has to be suspect at this point. Again to no fault of the driver that the alternator has gone bad.

    My opinion and I am old and senile is this. The stock market bubble is not the economy. Your count will never be right if you call a downtrend because the fed is buying stock and pushing the market up. Anybody who does not believe 330 ramps does not start at 33 liberty in NYC maybe should not be trading the markets. If the latest geopolitical news could not break this market and there are some serious problems out there one sir must really wonder.

    • tony caldaro says:

      uptrend still underway
      downtrend never occurred
      sideways action was only a pullback

    • torehund says:

      Truth, the stockmarket always reacts in a opposite manner, thats why we both hate it and sometimes love it, the art of ambivalence. Our own fear is Our protection. Without fear we are doomed.

    • chrisk44342 says:

      One of the problems I see here, again and again, is that most people here have no business trading the markets. It’s almost humorous that I should have to say this, but as a trader, all you control is risk. EW is based on probabilities so if you want to roll the dice on a scenario I say that’s more than fine. However, it’s true value in my opinion is telling you when you are wrong. If you can’t quantify when you’re wrong, stop trying to time/outguess the market. Secondly, never assume a count is right. Always assume it’s wrong and take partial profit when conventional indicators are telling you to get out. Basing your trading method on these concepts will save you a lot of heartache and will hopefully exposing the strengths and weaknesses of the person who acutally made the trade instead of someone who’s kindly giving his time to give you a generalized roadmap of the market.

  18. 5wavemodel says:

    Tuesday’s Market.

    Short term support is at 1977, with resistance between 1990 and 1999.

    CMuchas Gracias,

  19. JeffMilano says:

    Thank you 928. So there no way to capture the 5 min.prints in a automatic way, but must be done manualy.
    Youmay be correct about tomortow.
    Thank you!

    • 5wavemodel says:

      FreeStockCharts.com allows you to export chart data as a “.txt” file which can then be imported into an Excel spreadsheet. You can set the chart for 5 minutes and then capture the data. It will only allow you to capture as much data as the chart will hold, approximately 5-6 days worth. Not exactly simple, but it beats entering the data by hand.

      • JeffMilano says:

        Thank you for your kindess. I will let you know.
        Best Jeff

      • JeffMilano says:

        The 5 days worth is fine. Is there a system that will let me capture from nov.2013 to today on TNA on a 5.min basis.
        Thank you.

      • JeffMilano says:

        it works well on TNA I got the 5min. data from the 15 to the the 22 of july. So from now on I can get the data. Now If I can get from nov.2013 to the 15 of july,2014 that would be fantastic. Any ideas anyone. Thank you so much for your kindness. Thanks to TONY for his great blog that brings traders and enthusiast together.
        Best wishes,

  20. pcskier says:

    Rsp equal weight 500 tells the true story. Today should of been it for the upside. Apple is going to get hammered in the cash market tomorrow.

    • It was down 0.60% after hours where it had plenty of opportunity to get hammered but wasn’t. Was there something in the earnings call that leads you to this opinion?

  21. soulsurfer says:

    thanks Tony!

    The 80/20 rule suggests that 1980s will lead to 2020s. That’s right at the 2019 OEW pivot and where 1=5… Nonetheless, got a buy-signal on the daily AI today, no surprise. Looks like higher prices to come:


    NFLX: cash market not too happy with earnings. Another nail in the “Primary V is in” coffin, but it’s still too early to be certain.
    AAPL: see NFLX, but V should be major b…This could stall the NDX tomorrow, given AAPLs weighting, but just for a day IMHO.

    • Yep 80-20 rule means we go to 2019. Up tomorrow because to many people are short. Plus how many people are buying sept, oct puts.. I think we are going to need a bigger boat. This market will not go below 1900 this year. We can’t even get a 50 point correction let alone a p4 15 percent correction of 300 points. Rotate, rinse and repeat all the way to a blow off top of 2250. Is what it is.

  22. attitude928 says:

    Thinkorswim on TD Ameritrade

    • JeffMilano says:

      928. Can you give an idea on TD how you import 5 minute prices?
      Thank you

      • attitude928 says:

        I spoke with them a while back. At that time the only way to get intra-day data into an excel sheet was to enter it manually. I enter the TNA open, high, low, close & volume 4-7 times a day. The prints and the print-specific formula results can change throughout the day. Today’s print remained the same all day. For the first couple of hours there were no true down print-specific formulas and TNA kept going up. Later in the day, there were more true down formulas for the same print. That’s why I’m leaning towards a down day tomorrow. I took all TNA profits by 10AM and never went back in. If TNA opens up tomorrow, I’ll look for it to start falling after amateur half-hour is done. If the 1min & 5 min indicators look good for TZA at that point, I’ll buy TZA for a bit…

  23. Anonymous says:

    Fed created mother of all bubbles AKA stock market run from 2008! how they are going to undo this with HFT’s??

  24. Hi,Tony,do you think that this target is possible for PIII(18200)?thanks

  25. budfox9450 says:

    Italy, and Spain are looking very interesting.
    For long, or short term Investment — that’s
    EWI and EWP…Bud

  26. esvxm says:

    Thanks Tony for the market analysis!
    Gold trading narrow range but supported by a key level: http://marketchartpattern.com/commodities/gold-price-supported-key-level-22-july-2014/

    EURUSD at critical level: http://marketchartpattern.com/uncategorized/eurusd-key-level-22-july-2014/

  27. radrian6 says:

    The last few days have been positive overall for the RUT and have created an upward-biased channel on the 60-minute chart. However, the RUT futures (/TF) retreated from strong resistance at 1157.5 (about 1160 in the cash market). As I write this, /TF has tested support near 1148 and is trying to bounce back. SPX futures (/ES) experienced similar resistance at 1980.5 and pulled back to test support near 1972.

    Further upside seems likely but the gains achieved over the last few sessions are not secure — if the bulls want to stay in command, they will have to earn it.

    For the RUT, complex resistance remains in the zone from 1160 to 1172.

  28. bouraq says:

    Bulls looking good:

  29. lunker1 says:

    Pennant triangle measures 33 points. Breakout ~1882 Target 1915

  30. JeffMilano says:

    Does anyone know the source of getting TNA prices for every 5 minutes in order to load them into excel work sheet.Thank you in advance!

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