monday update

SHORT TERM: gap down opening then recovery, DOW -48

Overnight the Asian markets ended mixed. Europe opened lower and lost 0.7%. US index futures were lower overnight, and the market gapped down to SPX 1972 at the open. The SPX had closed at 1978 on Friday. The market continued to decline until 11am when the SPX hit 1966. Then with the market slightly oversold it start to rally. Around 3:30 the SPX hit 1976, then dipped to 1974 to end the day.

For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.25%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.15%. Bonds ended flat, Crude rallied 85 cents, Gold rose $2, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 1973 and 1956 pivots, with resistance at the 2019 and 2070 pivots. Tomorrow: the CPI at 8:30, FHFA housing at 9am, then Existing home sales at 10am.

The market gapped down at the open today and traded down to the lower end of the 1973 pivot range (1966). Then it rallied back over the pivot again in the afternoon. At the open we labeled Friday’s SPX 1980 high as Minute wave b of Minor C. When the market rallied 10 points off the low we were a bit surprised. No matter how much bad news has been thrown at this market, it has just sold off and then recovered again. From a wave viewpoint, it almost appears like it still needs to complete a pattern. We have been carrying a Minor 4 alternate count on the NAZ charts. Today we can see, for the first time, that possibility on the SPX charts as well at Thursday’s 1956 low. When this market breaks out of its trading range: SPX 1953-1986, we will get the uptrend/downtrend answer.

Short term support is at the 1973 and 1956 pivots, with resistance at SPX 1986 and the 2019 pivot. Short term momentum hit slightly oversold this morning then rebounded past neutral. The short term OEW charts continue to flip-flop, ending the day positive, with the reversal level SPX 1973. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: downtrend/uptrend inflection point

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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100 Responses to monday update

  1. Tony

    Could we have made a Minor wave 5 top at today highs (truncated) or it is never possible ?

    COMPQ still weak and has not made new highs..

    • tony caldaro says:

      During bull markets it is always tough to call a top, because the uptrend may extend.
      Correction lows during bull markets are not as difficult, because the trend will reverse up eventually.

      • Ok – I just saw you mentioned minor 4 already in now. But to me it looks more like markets about toppy here with COMPQ failing to make new highs with NYA. Both weak and today candle looks like its a reversal candle to downside. Looks a bit weak to me…. so just wondering if minor 5 could be truncated with the little move higher than the previous high.

      • tony caldaro says:

        a drop below 1980 might add to that scenario

      • manunidhi21 says:

        Tony !
        I have seen that in Indian markets truncated 5, it just failed making a minor high..
        But liquidity is so high now that no level is sacrosanct..We in EW or OEW are also raising targets every six months..change is inevitable and its also the only constant thing in this world.

      • tony caldaro says:

        the only constant here is change

  2. H D says:

    Major 5 has not given a proper ABC, we’ll know III is done when it does. Shorting B waves a risky move, we will need to reset. ii was irregular, alternation should prevent iv from some crazy B at ATH’s too. EW continues to be tricky. 1996 SPX becomes interesting and DJI double top trade. If ur not in, like me, time to be patient and wait for a better set up, either way. JMHFO

    More importantly, NFL starts in 2 weeks with the Seahawks beating broncos again.

  3. mharrison60 says:

    Interested in your thoughts on FTSE count since May. Now only a 100 off the May high / big blue C top. Seems we are stuck in a trading range waiting for S&P to complete PIII.

    Thanks as always!

  4. Tony,
    I am sure this is a dumb question but do minor 5’s fail more than minor 1’s and minor 3’s? And if so, is it possible since we made a higher high at 1986 that Pri III could be over? Thanks and I know it is a low probability.

  5. jeffbalin says:

    If this is supposed to be int 4, I was expecting something a lot simpler, like down up down.
    3rd hit at 1985 now what

  6. uncle10 says:

    I had problems logging in to post until now!? I was going to post yesterday near the low that I closed my short and went all in long. Oh well…. #allwinnersallthetimeitsthenet hahah:)

  7. JeffMilano says:

    Does anyone know the source of getting TNA prices for every 5 minutes in order to load them into excel work sheet.
    Thank you in advance!

    • attitude928 says:

      Think and Swim on TD Ameritrade.

      • JeffMilano says:

        I do not have an account on TD. However, they sayed that they only have a graph that can be adjusted to 5 min. However cannot dowload to excel or txt file. I am not sure if that is true. How did you dowload the 5 min.prices from TD into excel.
        Thank you.

  8. Please look at the news; It says DELETE…What if someone “PASTES”

    Last post for the day

  9. You can change the count on the fly but alas can’t go back and buy when you had to buy!!

  10. Yesterday I mentioned with the market down 100 points vix futures were telling you we would reverse and go higher soon. I know most are focused on trying to figure out what wave we are in and how we must continue to adjust. But the VIX is telling you market will sell off hard into the close. so if your buying now because of a feel good feeling or a bullish wave count my advice is I hope you save your reciept

    • cmucha68 says:

      You speak the truth indeed.

    • lunker1 says:

      I asked but you never explained what your definition of “the VIX futures are selling off” is. the other day they sold off 3 times but it wasn’t until the 3rd time was when the market finally rolled over. sorry but saying I told you so over and over doesn’t really help much. teach others what you think you see so we can try to use it. otherwise it’s just noise.

      • sorry lunker I will explain better. Risk range for vix is 1190 is to 14.99. front month not confirming this move. I expect the S&P to reverse shortly. S&P up 12 as we speak. its just something that works for me. My play is to sell the dam bubble. I have not had that much luck using EW as a tool in a market like this. its like using an alcohol thermometer in a time where you hace mri’s and cat scan machine. just my opinion

    • What time frame do you trade using your VIX method of conformation? Is it basically from one day to the next day or intraday scalps?

    • rc1269 says:

      “I hope you save your reciept”
      love that! hah

  11. Covered 80+ Elliott Wave W3 1.618 setups in the past hour whew inc. AAPL GOOGL DIS PCLN CMG TSLA DDD BIDU FB etc

  12. Just an update on my last comment (excluding today’s) some days before, where there were indications that spx will touch 1992. Today, I think it will not, there is major resistance around 1987-88. I dont think that will clear.

    Small SHORT at 1984.4

  13. Next week is FOMC meeting, SPX will float around this level till weekend. I dont expect firework. Next week is going to be interesting to the downside

  14. mjtplayer says:

    With the new count, int iv is looking a lot like int ii

  15. Good morning Tony and the board,
    Tony it is not unusual for me to be lost in the count but after this morning I wondering where we are? We are definitely not in Kansas anymore, can you please advise? Thank you.

  16. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony
    Maybe SPX should break 1985.59 before we get too excited.

  17. RDC says:

    Absolutely positively this time we will see SPX 2000 plus.

    • Jordi Güell says:

      I don’t think so. Today we are going to close lower. I expect a decent drop, and if price reverse, as I expect, today is the beginning of the drop.

  18. CygnetNoir says:

    As far as Big Up’s go, this is an ugly one – but it is what it is – a Big Up inside a double bottom base. What remains to be seen is whether that base was masking distribution or accumulation or just another round of both, i.e. rotation.

  19. fishonhook says:

    No C wave. Time to pull out yet another ‘alternate count’

  20. manunidhi21 says:

    Namaste Tony !
    Es made all time high. So do we consider Naz count or need to wait for spot for Chart update

  21. rc1269 says:

    another IHS strikes again. same intraday pattern, over and over. 6/24-6/27, 7/7/-7/11, 7/17-7/21
    rinse, repeat. 1996 by thurs.

      • rc1269 says:

        cmucha68 says:
        July 21, 2014 at 11:01 am
        I would say, if it goes up now max. 1977-1978. It seems that really a rounding top is materialising. But anything is possible. I would be astonished if it goes beyond 1980.

        curious to see if we reach a state of astonishment this morning

      • cmucha68 says:

        Look when that was posted. Eyes open my friend !

      • cmucha68 says:

        And rinse, repeat, rinse repeat does not bring you anything if you cannot turn it into profit !

      • rc1269 says:

        my eyes are open enough to see all 15 of your posts the last two days alone
        which include:
        1. we’re going to 1978 max (timeframe?)
        2. if we close at 1978 we could pop +5 points (overnight)
        3. we might be going to 1956 (timeframe?)
        4. you have also been looking for a bearish butterfly for some time (which implies new highs shortly)
        5. ridiculing counting up and down, back and forth if it produces no profit (which is an odd jab since i am unaware of anybody here posting their P&L)
        6. ridiculing another member’s short term count for being incorrect, “again and again”

        i might have had my eyes closed for a moment so let me know if i missed any other value-add nuggets. as i’m certain you come out blasting in defense, perhaps we can get your post count up over 20 for the 24 hour period

      • cmucha68 says:

        Yeah man your are the greatest in town. Wish you all good luck in trading ! Let’s see if you are still here in a couple of weeks or if your account has gone bust with all your wisdom.

      • rc1269 says:

        hah cheers mate. the folks i manage money for have 9 bn reasons to hope my wisdom can hold up for a few more weeks, so we’re all crossing our fingers. GL to you as well.

      • 7dayyss says:

        Doesn’t like the taste of his own medicine apparently! Thanks RC.

      • fionamargaret says:

        …maybe submit your own analysis cmucha68 (or even a posting to an interesting theory from someone else) – much more positive.
        All the posters here lay themselves bare and are all deserving of encouragement. Pretty fantastic group in my opinion.

      • wildmick says:

        cmucha68, you have no skin in the game. others here do.

    • lunker1 says:

      good job RC

  22. torehund says:

    time to head into the dollar, massive devaluation Ahead.

  23. bouraq says:

    Agricultural longs:

  24. Thanks Tony!
    Fiboextension 2,618 of the april decline in SPX (int 2) will put the int 3 top at 2031.
    Fibo 1,27 and 1,618 have been busted, so we only have the 2,618 level left.
    Interestingly, Elliott channeling of the int 3 wave, also suggest an int 3 top at 2030-2035.
    The upper trendline in this channel rises from the top of int 2 (1897), and is parallell to the line drawn between the start of int 1 and 3.

    These calculations might provide support to the concept that int 3 is still under way.

    Best wishes Sverker

  25. alexhartley1 says:

    Hi Tony,

    The Nasdaq count still has us in Major 3 of Primary III? Currently we would be in Minor 5 of Intermediate V?

    So upon a top we could have a Major 4 down to 1929 pivot or a bit lower (not going below 1884) and then a Major 5 up to end the Primary III in the 2000s potentially?



  26. mjtplayer says:

    Possible minutte (orange) waves 1,2 of minute c of minor C today

  27. blackjak100 says:

    Thanks Tony! Barring a big gap down tomorrow, I see 2 scenarios pointing higher albeit only 1-2% higher. Trade above 1984 (where c ended in the triangle) could confirm a triangle ended last Thurs targeting 2019 pivot. This would see int iii ongoing and ending at 2019 pivot?

    The other scenario is a complex irregular flat unfolding for int iv where we are in c of B now (A=1953, B=1989-1998?, and C=1945ish). My guess is a downtrend would be confirmed in your proprietary system. In either scenario, we should be in a third wave and must close green tomorrow. With wave i already 24 pts, this scenario could see a shorter third wave and an even shorter fifth wave.

    • Wouldn’t it be unusual for minute B-Wave of minor C to go higher than minor B? Also, what 5 waves are you talking about?

      • blackjak100 says:

        George you have to remember I’m talking traditional EW when counting waves to see where it might fit into the OEW picture. If we completed a triangle at 1956, then a 5 wave impulse higher must follow.

        If we are in a complex expanded flat, then we are in c of B. c of B must also be a 5 wave impulse higher as ‘c waves’ are always 5 wave structures. Sorry I don’t have a pic for this

        A = 1986-1953
        a of B = 1953-1982
        b of B = 1982-1956
        c of B = 1956-(1989-1998)?
        C = 1945ish?

    • wildmick says:

      think c of B it is bj

    • wildmick says:

      don’t know about 5 wave rule but looks something like double top so far.

  28. Caldaro your a good man let me help. The market is going higher.

  29. Thanks, Tony! As you advised, we won’t know up/down until $SPX gets out of its range trading. With as much geopolitical events we’ve had, the market seems only to be yawning (resting). No fear registering at all on the VIX (as you know). Have a nice evening!$SPX&p=60&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p96384848450&a=315374993&listNum=7$VIX&p=D&st=2012-08-02&en=(today)&id=p46200032009&a=312144717&listNum=7

  30. RDC says:

    Gap up open tomorrow!

  31. mkt. update, many trades closed, some big ones planned for tuesday (see comments sect. of blog):

  32. jobjas says:

    minute 4 of minor 3 in progress

  33. Thanks tony for the excelent work!!


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