thursday update

SHORT TERM: gap down opening and volatile day, DOW -161

Overnight the Asian markets finished mixed. Europe opened lower and lost 1.0%. US index futures were lower overnight. At 8:30 weekly Jobless claims were reported lower: 302k v 304k, Housing starts were lower: 893k v 1001k, and Building permits were lower: 963k v 991k. The market gapped down at the open to SPX 1976, dipped to 1975, and then started to rally. The SPX had closed at 1982 yesterday. At 10am the Philly FED was reported higher: 23.9 v 17.8. The market then closed the opening gap by 10:30 at SPX 1982, and began to pullback. At 11:30 the SPX hit 1968, had a quick bounced to 1973, and then hit 1966 by noon. A rally followed to SPX 1976 just before 1pm, then the market headed lower. Just past 3:30 the SPX hit 1956, then bounced to close at 1958.

For the day the SPX/DOW were -1.05%, and the NDX/NAZ were -1.40%. Bonds gained 21 ticks, Crude rose $1.90, Gold rallied $21, and the USD was lower. Medium term support drops to the 1956 and 1929 pivots, with resistance at the 1973 and 2019 pivots. Tomorrow: Consumer sentiment and Leading indicators at 10am, and it is Options expiration.

The market gapped down at open, again following Europe, but closed the gap by 10:30. After that the market got even more volatile, with a drop to SPX 1966, a rally to 1976, then another drop to 1956. Today, International events created some uncertainty. And, markets dislike uncertainty. This was evident with the rallies in Bonds, Crude and Gold. We continue to hold our primary count, since the SPX 1986 high, as an ongoing, choppy, Intermediate wave iv downtrend. Recent new highs in the DOW/NDX offered an alternative count of Minor 5 underway. This afternoon’s decline certainly lowered the probabilities of the alternate count, with the drop below SPX 1960. We continue to count from the Intermediate wave iii high: Minor A (1959-1973-1953), Minor B (1970-1960-1983-1965-1984), and Minor C underway (1966-1976-1956 so far). As soon as this market loses the OEW 1956 pivot range (1949-1963) there could be a sharp drop to the Intermediate wave iv low.

Short term support is at the 1956 and 1929 pivots, with resistance at the 1973 pivot and SPX 1986. Short term momentum declined after yesterday’s negative divergence, and hit extremely oversold at the lows. The short term OEW charts ended negative with the reversal level SPX 1973. Best to your Friday trading!

MEDIUM TERM: downtrend looks underway

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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149 Responses to thursday update

  1. Hi Tony,
    It looks to me like the market is getting very volatile. It appears like a gap and go for int. v, But, it feels like a wave 2, which implies a top of a higher degree. JMHO

  2. wildmick says:

    to: soulsurfer

    Im saddened by the loss of so many of your country men and women. certainly we all mourn the many deaths caused by the tragic crash. since youre such a faithful regular here (love your charts) and since citizens of The Netherlands figure so prominently among the deceased, I just wanted to express condolences.

    • torehund says:

      It isnt easy With these supressed commodity prices for countries like Brasil and Russia. When commodities is just about what you do, the result is a pretty volatile and geared economy. Big booms and then hard times when stagflation bites and creates tension in a population. If economy is volatile folks become volatile….. Are we skimming some sort of bottom in these countries, PBR rallied post Brasil w-cup.

  3. wildmick says:

    as a blogger on another site pointed out, there must be a huge short squeeze going on!

    • Why is it that on days like this WS media and many traders assume it must be a short squeeze? Why not distribution? Distribution is very common near important market top and we are near one now. I never here the WS media talk about distribution.

    • torehund says:

      Wildmick, what folks Call a short squeeze is Stocks retracing in fast abcs to fill gap of descending motive Waves. Opposite of rolling over.

      • wildmick says:

        that makes sense. short squeeze used to describe several types of moves probably.

      • torehund says:

        If a smaller ,otive wave is retraced you dont get unfolding on a grand scale (like the one depicted))…However do I dare to say that a full 5 retrace ABC it is the kind of retrace or squeeze that a stocktrader dreams of…:)

      • wildmick says:

        are you saying the full 5 retrace has occurred?

      • torehund says:

        Wildmick I am normally a Stock guy, and dont play indexes anymore. I keep check on indexes mainly RUT as I hold smallcaps.
        When searching for Stocks I oftenmost look for patterns like the one depicted. Even if the bottomphase looks somewhat short (trying to enter at W5, there is considerable X wave choppy churn before the retracement commences, a grueling phase, (but taking on the heat sometime pays off). As a Learning experience start With this simple pattern and look around at Stocks and indexes to find similarities. Twist the patterns, turn them inverse and upside Down, and gradually you will add to Your knowledge base. Then try to develop a sense of scale and Dimensions. In real life patterns are often dragged, bent torn and infested With X- Waves just to make us look like a fool all to often 🙂 But then, every time market fools you, it gives knowledge back.

  4. manunidhi21 says:

    Do you see any weakness in SPX.

  5. The target now is 1996 on SPX, FOOTISE shall hit new all time high, INDU 17300, DAX- 10100, Cable- 180, eurusd-128…

    I think I talked too much..will take a break for day

  6. the bulls have leap and bound right pass the bears defense

  7. gary61b says:

    If 1978 resistance holds then a pull back – d should be evident.

  8. rc1269 says:

    the good news is that shortly we will have completely erased the impact of the shooting down of a passenger jet and the ground invasion of Gaza. what, that’s all you got?
    buy buy buy

  9. torehund says:

    Good weekend to Tony and all bloggers.
    PS: I am stuck in a X-wave Mania flat bottom churn phase, waiting upside Down “rollowers” in multiple shares. Lets see what next week brings.

  10. jeffbalin says:

    One more hit at 1985 ish and then whoosh down to end int 4?

  11. lunker1 says:

    To me it seems the bounce is done ~1975/6 and now maybe a retrace back to 1963/66.

  12. 12:33PM Elliott Wave Noon Update – Major 786 breakouts Across The Board $DJIA $COMPQ $SPX $AAPL $BIDU $FB $NUGT

  13. gtoptions says:

    SPX ~ Testing the Diagonal Triangle TL.
    Leading Diagonal 5 down yesterday, Sharp 3 zig-zag today. 5 down next?

  14. IHS forming with the Triangle I described earlier…..this is very common in triangles

  15. Caldaro thanks the site a great one and your work is appreciated. Have a great weekend all. Golf clap for the fed for running the market today

  16. twosidedtape great call today my friend

  17. xela0 says:

    Just cause hardly mentioned, but Int4 could be done.

    • pimacanyon says:

      agree. The other possibility is Int4 is making a triangle. If that’s the case, then yesterday’s low would have been the end of the “c” wave of the triangle. Today’s run up is the “d” wave. Prolly been mentioned here already, I haven’t gone back thru all the comments yet.

      • Jordi Güell says:

        So, new all time highs shortly, isn’t it?

      • pimacanyon says:

        Jordi, if the triangle is in play, we’ll top out around 1982, then head south one more time before heading up into Int5. If Int4 is done, then new highs will be hit very soon.

      • xela0 says:

        Yet another possibility would be minor 4 of int3, a new high for int3 and then finally a decent correction.

  18. uncle10 says:

    Adding back the half short here, I got out of yesterday at the close. gl and good weekend all.

  19. manunidhi21 says:

    Namaste Tony!
    Amazing patience and levels you have.

    Why you still have Int.iii as green ?

  20. mjtplayer says:

    Minute a of minor C at yesterday’s low, now rallying in minute b?

    • llerias7 says:

      Sounds like…

    • simplify! says:

      Or C has completed. If you count the 7/15 high at 1982.52 as B, then A = 33 pts/40 hours; B = 30 pts/39 hours; C = 28 pts/38 hours and each subdivides into three waves, with b of C taking out B by one point.

  21. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony
    It’s called Greed! 😉
    GL & Good Weekend to all.

  22. bulling encountering resistance….close ES longs from yday and starting ES short pyramid…

    • cmucha68 says:

      Closed my longs also too early at 1961. Now I am trying some little shorts. But market looks damn strong. A small pullback would be good now.

      • we are testing tony’s 1973 pivot….just added my second lot of ES short at 1967 (first lot was 1958.75)………..
        Yesterday I posted a possibility for an Intermediate iv wave triangle,
        assuming Intermediate iii 1986, then triangle count down is as follows;
        A of Triangle 1953
        B of Triangle 1984
        C of Triangle 1966
        D of Triangle … 1983ish? Underway
        E of Triangle….1966ish (if truncated) or 1956ish? (TBD)

      • cmucha68 says:

        Can’t imagine D = 1983 today, although everything is possible if there would be a strong short squeeze. But 10 points higher from now on is a bit difficult. Will try also some more shorts.

      • cmucha68 says:

        Although I am trading only call and put options, no futures.

      • pimacanyon says:

        El Mat,

        looks likely to me. You have a typo on the C leg, should be 1956.

      • pimacanyon says:


        1983 doesn’t have to hit today. If the triangle is in play, we’re on the D leg and it should top around 1982-83, probably not today, more likely early next week.

      • Pimacanyon, thanks for the correction , you are correct C of Triangle is 1956.

        cmucha, wave C of triangle needs to form 3 wave to complete and top around the 1983ish. Tony’s 1973 pivot is putting good resistance on wave a of C of Triangle to top out….wave b of C of triangle should be underway soon and i am looking for 1967-1965 SPX (1958-1955 ES) retracement

    • cmucha68 says:

      El Matador, we have still about 2 hours and 25 minutes left for market close. My experience is that strong movements on a Friday stay strong on either side. Except this time due to the political cases around Gaza perhaps some profit taking. Would be interesting to see if a move done to the area you mentioned materialises.

  23. GM, 10 handle rally off the pivot nobody wanted to buy yesterday. A good weekend to be flat. Too much going on. Be well.

  24. Looking at VIX futures. Am noticing that the front months remain in a steady slope higher with the nearest month cheapest and each month progressively higher thereafter. This is not how they act if the market is expecting a significant correction! The front month or two or three should have spiked higher relative to the ones that follow, but they haven’t. This tells me the volatility traders do not believe this correction will last for very long. There is little flattening of the slope taking place, indicating the fear is not really there. Just my observation. If it changes it changes, but it’s not there yet. (Here’s a useful link to bookmark.)

    • Yes but it can be a little misleading at times. Because when the go into backwardation like they are now that is when the major moves like 2011 tvix from 10 to 100 should take place. but they are very manipulated and that trade has not worked in 3 years. your reading it right but it can go the other way.

    • blackjak100 says:

      It’s whipsaw city that’s for sure…indicative of a triangle. I’ve seen 2 counts suggesting the int iv triangle has completed and we should expect upside breakout towards 2000. If so, nothing more should come of the geopolitical event that caused the sell-off in the first place. I have no clue which way the indices will move. Futures indicate a slightly positive open which could turn into a big gap up.

      • blackjak100 says:

        not to mention I think gold could touch 1360ish before declining big which could suggest further weakness in the indices and a target more closer to Tony’s 1929 pivot.

      • tommyboys says:

        Or down. Just remember Egypt in ’11, Ukraine more recently and austerity around the globe, Middle East and North Africa and the QE endings etc… Now we have Gaza/Israel (again) and Ukraine/Russia (still) and illegal immigration here (again) -the list goes on and on. How much have these events affected US markets – or for how long? Always short lived panics. Often almost feeling orchestrated for institutional benefit.

      • I agree with tommyboy

      • cmucha68 says:

        I agree. If we do not move back to futures overnight lows I also assume that we might challenge the highs again. And if not today so could be Monday if these endless plane crash TV reports and gaza diminish a litte bit. Although I feel sorry for all the victims. There always innocence who suffer but the market has its own rules.

    • cmucha68 says:

      Hey Bouraq, can’t really figure out your short entry from your charts as the yellow band has been broken to the upside.

      • bouraq says:

        I posted a chart right after my post because I saw a different bullish setup which played out. Yes the orange resistance broke up so risk is on again.

  25. Futures up this morning Shocking . As I thought a one day event where traders had an excuse to sell. Back to your centrally planned ramp.

  26. market update for thusday and plan for friday (within blog’s comments sect.):

  27. walkerjb says:

    Reblogged this on Wavestation and commented:
    with the week end coming, expecting aother down day on friday. too loose to hold going into the weekend. best of luck everyone.

    • cmucha68 says:

      I am not sure. Wouldn’t be surprised to see markets erase more than half of its losses or even higher during trading session to close on a higher bias. As too often markets forget about the geopolitical ( remember Egypt ?) and gets back to normal. Also still there is earnings season. So let’s see how that plays out. This evening at the close we will be all more clever.

    • cmucha68 says:

      Here you have your down day.

  28. torehund says:

    American Airlines Group has gone from 4 usd to 555 from 2012 without any correction.
    Fact is, I will rather enter an airplane during their bearmarket, than now.

  29. Hi Tony

    volatile action in the US after hours.

    your calm controlled approach in the face of new highs in Dow ndx is inpressive and i am beginning to understand the look and feel of the movements and you were right as it just didnt feel like a new high was coming in the spx yet the dow was so strong. There was room for 2 counts and they are still in play. Tracking all the indices gives insight especially recently. Dow made a new high today and ftse is nearly 200 off its high. It seems sellers are more confident in the UK than US. I thought ftse at 6650 was a gimmie purely based on the US indicies. Didnt trade it though. I am English and follow ftse closely but only trade US. I have often tracked the divergences in the indices. There is a tradeable index in the UK that is the difference between dax and ftse. Do you think this index would be able to be counted with OEW as it is only the product of the difference between 2 indices? So the product of 2 counts

    At one point during 2009 the dax and the ftse were the same on a points value and now the dax is 3500 points higher.

    Sorry if you have answered this before but I find the differences in the movements of the indices intriguing. Especially recently.

    I still don’t think I fully understand how the companies that make up an index dictate resistance and support. Surely stocks are bought on there individual merits. Or do people just buy stocks based on where the indices are and don’t care about the individual stock. E.g. Why does 17000 on the dow create a natural support or resistance when it is the underlying stocks that make up the index and they may be up or down on the day. This has always confused me.

    Appreciate any insight from the multidude of great posters on this blog.

    By the way. Are all you Americans on here more acceptable to the unbelievable excitement of soccer after your team’s AWESOME performance against Belgium. That 300 mins of extra time was one of the highlights of the world cup. I was chanting U S A at the tele. What a team performance.

    Will stop rabbiting on now.

    • tony caldaro says:

      It will be hard to count a derivative of two indices.
      The tail wags the dog, i.e. futures move stocks, not stocks moving indices.
      Soccer is still the “other” sport in the country =)

      • lunker1 says:

        For US adults yes, but for kids soccer is the #1 sport for both boys and girls. Wave 3 has started and could last 50 years.

        • jp7972 says:

          I heard recently that soccer (football to us Brits) is the highest participation sport in the US amongst men aged 25-34 now. In 10 years it will be cricket. 😉

      • pimacanyon says:

        that’s been a difficult concept for me to grasp, that the index futures are the dog and the stock market is the tail. Because the indexes are derived from the price of the 500 stocks in the index and because the index futures are based on the price of the index, I would have thought that it’s the stock market itself that’s the driver, that the stock prices have to move which move the indexes which move the futures. But it appears that it’s the other way around, futures are the driver and the stock market follows. That’s what you’re saying right? It certainly appears that way, futures can move overnight, market opens and boom, the index is right where the futures are.

  30. torehund says:

    Sov debth crisis light, Cold war light With Ukraine, Iraq hiccups light, Israel/palestine conflict medium, exploding airplane 911 light. Whats NeXT`?

  31. Tony – I got to admit, your pivot price points work like magic quite often. After reading your update today, I decided go long ES after it re-open at 5pm (CT) and was able to buy in at 1947 and again at 1943.5 and now the autobots are working their magic…..can’t thank you enough Tony….Great work and thanks for sharing your blog with everyone.

  32. Watch GDX — all this consolidation has to break resistance soon. Once it does, it should be off to the races.

    • valunvstr says:


      You’re killing me. buy, sell, buy, sell…I know, you want confirmation. That’s fair and I think it is coming VERY soon. I can’t believe I sold my GDXJ calls yesterday near the highs right before a 7% move.

  33. FYI nobody expecting more than just a 1 day drop.

    SPX 1958.12 -23.45
    VIX 14.54 3.54
    VIX/Q4 13.88 0.18
    VIX/U4 14.35 0.10
    VIX/V4 14.90 0.10

    • pcskier says:

      JNK, HYG(high yield) and the YEN is screaming RISK OFF!!! JNK and HYG broke their 50 DMA for the first time in a year. The yen is above it’s 200 DMA. It’s been below since OCT 2012. Nothing to worry about carry on as usual and buy the Dips with leverage.

    • ewmarkets says:

      Not sure what you mean. It seems the opposite is true: everyone is expecting more drops tomorrow and possibly into next week.

      • tommyboys says:

        You have to get to know TT. His comments are sarcastic regarding Fed & VIX ad nausea. He’s been waiting years for a market implosion and resents Fed enormously for its bond buying program and comments daily – if not hourly – on this. Our Pastor’s big saying is, “don’t get bitter, get better”…

    • uncle10 says:

      Thanks TT. So what you are saying ( or what the data is showing) is no one is worried at all……….. hmmmm. lots of hmmms today for me. 🙂

      • Yes uncle I think today was profit taking from a overbought market ants that’s it. My prayers are with those who lost their lives in today’s tragedy and for those who live in areas where unrest is part of everyday life. But in the US it matters little as the fed will support the market with money not allow it plunge to far

  34. mjtplayer says:

    Thanks Tony!

    Terrible news today regarding the plane crash, Biden just came out and said no accident – the plane was “shot down”. 295 souls on board – what a terrible loss in what looks to be a dispicable political move from somone (Russia?). The plane was shot down flying at 33k feet with a surface-to-air missle, not the capabilities of random terrorists or groups, this is military.

    Last night Obama puts in place more token sanctions,which everyone knows will accomplish nothing. If it’s proven that this was Russia’s response, that would be an unprecedented slap in the face. The timing is too much of a coincidence….

    • tony caldaro says:

      Would not rule out what the Ukraine president said.
      It happened on his turf

      • ocaj2000 says:

        More likely a false flag operation, to be blamed on the Russians or the DPR/LPR defense forcies, carried out by the Ukrainian military with the knowledge and approval of the US government. The Ukrainian government has just experienced a Stalingrad like moment in the Donbass (not yet reported in the US media) and they are getting desperate. What better way to distract attention, and perhaps, finally get the EU/NATO involved more directly.

      • tony caldaro says:

        sorry do not own a tin hat

      • ocaj2000 says:

        Nothing to do with tin hats. In a matter such as this, the question is always Cui Bono ? This incident surely will not benefit the Russians nor will it benefit the resistance. Anyone who thinks our government is incapable of such an action is childishly naive. Besides, there are two types of tin hats. One that screens out government propoganda. One that intensifies it. Most Americans wear the latter.

    • uncle10 says:

      Hey I said a while ago Putin will continue to misbehave and will cause the market to go down a lot. This probably isn’t the big misbehave but at some point he will do something bad. Maybe soon maybe years from now. but easy call he will cause problems at some point. He is a little cray cray……………….

      • ocaj2000 says:

        Seriously ? I would say Putin has behaved with excessive moderation since the US/EU orchestrated the overthrow of the elected government in Kiev this past winter. Just reverse the roles of Russia and the US and replace the Ukraine with Mexico and ask yourself how Washington would have reacted.

        • tony caldaro says:

          What Mexico wanting to be part of the USA.
          Or Mexicans wanting to return Texas back to Mexico.
          That kind of nonsense does not happen in this country.
          We have a simple rule:
          If you do not like it, sell your house, pack your belongings, and leave.
          If the Crimeans would have done that there would not been any problems.

      • uncle10 says:

        Ocaj, I cant have a conversation with someone who thinks US govt. gave approval to shoot down the airplane. I guess anything is possible but really?? U one of those that think we were behind 911 to I guess? The older I get the more I think we all are a little cray cray……..

      • manunidhi21 says:

        Namaste Tony!
        Everything is business and its viability..Thats hard core truth..Will you blame Nero or Nero’s Guest…

        Crimeans is important as it safeguards the route for OIL transport through Instanbul canal..Same with Israel dominance bcz of Suez canal..
        Canada has maximum oil but refineries are in U.S..

        All wars were business calculations.

        The biggest risk what i find for IMF/World Bank and U.S is this BRICS bank..
        Power is shifting to East.

      • George Santayana says:

        I love you, dear uncle, because you are so, well…avuncular. But with the greatest respect, you are somewhat naive:

        U.S. Military Wanted to Provoke War With Cuba
        N E W Y O R K, May 1, 2001
        By David Ruppe

        In the early 1960s, America’s top military leaders reportedly drafted plans to kill innocent people and commit acts of terrorism in U.S. cities to create public support for a war against Cuba.

        Code named Operation Northwoods, the plans reportedly included the possible assassination of Cuban émigrés, sinking boats of Cuban refugees on the high seas, hijacking planes, blowing up a U.S. ship, and even orchestrating violent terrorism in U.S. cities.

        The plans were developed as ways to trick the American public and the international community into supporting a war to oust Cuba’s then new leader, communist Fidel Castro.

        America’s top military brass even contemplated causing U.S. military casualties, writing: “We could blow up a U.S. ship in Guantanamo Bay and blame Cuba,” and, “casualty lists in U.S. newspapers would cause a helpful wave of national indignation.”

        Tin hat, Tony?

      • uncle10 says:

        Hey George, thanks for the love. back at you.
        So since there is an article written it must be true…… 😉

  35. tommyboys says:

    Tony the other day you said the RUT has seen its high. Did you mean for this rally ST, intermediate or LT? Bear market now or just correction before a further rally? TIA

    • tony caldaro says:

      Typically the R2K tops before the major indices.
      Bull market high? possibly

      • uncle10 says:

        Whoa, Mr T. talking possible bull market highs in the Rut!?!?! hmmm.
        Tony, safe to say S&P has maybe at best 100 points up side and maybe 1000 down side over the next few years? thx.

      • tony caldaro says:

        SPX could go higher than that, but that low … yes

      • Ryan Parker says:

        If you believe that there is as much as 1000 points of downside for the S&P 500 in a couple of years you obviously believe that P/E multiples are going to compress. What do you expect to be the catalyst for the compression and the market drop in general? P/E ratios and dividend payouts as a % of stock price have come nowhere near previous bear market lows.

      • Ryan Parker says:

        Meant dividend yields. Brain fart. Also, if commodities and bonds have already peaked, where will capital flow if it comes out of the equity market? Always appreciate your thoughts Tony.

      • tony caldaro says:

        Another leg of deflation

      • uncle10 says:

        Hey Ryan. I think the catalyst will be— the idea or concept that solving the problem of too much debt and too much leverage with more debt and more leverage—— doesn’t work….

    • valunvstr says:

      Hussman is smart but his investment conclusions have been SOOOO wrong so I don’t follow anything he says. With that said I love reading stuff because you never know what you might learn. In this case you will see that valuation means absolutely NOTHING when it comes to forward stock market returns. Read the article below. Anyone who pays attention to the valuation of the broad markets is fooling themselves. It’s all about recessions. If you can forecast that, and good luck (that’s a toughie) then you can avoid the brutal prolonged bear markets. It really is that simple! See below. I also included a Vanguard piece that furthers the argument that valuation has virtually not ability to forecast forward returns.

      • uncle10 says:

        Hopefully my last post. I just got back from a long break. I am all fired up!!! haha
        Val, I agree they tell you nothing about what to do and what is to come. And IMO you can substitute valuation for interest rates, gdp, jobs, earnings, or any other econ. data point.

  36. iamwhoiis says:

    Looking for suggestions on a decent trading platform. I’ve been using Fidelity’s “Active Trader Pro” trading platform, or Fidelity’s “interactive chart” for TA and monitoring market movement. I’m completely disgusted with Fidelity. Every time volume heats up in the market, Fidelity’s servers mysteriously become unresponsive – and there you are holding a position with no way to act on it. Not a good deal! I’d really like to know what type of trading platform some of you guys and gals are using?

    • Saxo Bank platform never freezes

    • I use TD Ameritrade’s Thinkorswim (TOS). I know a lot of retail trades use it….it works great for me.

    • I have actually only had a problem with Fidelity two times in over 15 years, each lasting maybe 15 minutes, and I had to use the phone to make a trade. Overall very satisfied. I use the Active Pro Trader, but it can be a bit finicky (sometimes I need to re sign-in every half hour, other times not, – but I do my trading through the regular Fidelity website on a second computer, which I keep active during the trading day as well. I use Active Trader Pro to watch my positions in real time, as well as my watch list. I also use exclusively for my trading system, which offers superior charting, – but Fidelity gives good tick by tick quotes on the Active Trader Pro.

    • uncle10 says:

      just in case you missed my response on Wed. update.
      I have been using interactive brokers for about 6 years. They are good. I recommend them to anyone. I also have an account with C. schwab which is pretty good.. 2 choice to IB.

    • wildmick says:

      who – I abandoned a fidelity account years ago for that same reason plus higher transaction charges. int. brokrs is really nice with tors platform. if you like options, options house is also good with lower trans fees, but not a good platform for stocks or etfs. IB the way to go imo.

    • iamwhoiis says:

      Thank you all for the recommendations. I really appreciate the insight.

    • magicianme says:

      Broker: Rosenthal Collins Group
      Platform: NinjaTrader
      Feed: Continuum

      Am happy with that combination. Works for me.

  37. Hi Tony

    You think that wave iv will hit 1929 or go lower than this ?

    As i’m thinking we could hit all the way down to 1920 per my analysis.

    Thank you

  38. radrian6 says:

    There is a confluence of support near 1090 for the RUT comprising the weekly lower BB and a rising trend line from late September 2011 — I doubt that RUT will drop through that area without a strong, sustained bounce. RUT has entered a complex support area from 1135 to 1083 and support could emerge from anywhere in this area.

    I’m not a wave counter but it appears that RUT is now in wave 3 of the second leg of this correction (could be minor C). Regardless of the count, I suspect that we will soon see a small retracement for wave 4 followed by the finishing drop for this correction. When the correction ends and the RUT reverses, keep an eye on resistance near 1168 — that appears to be key.

    • pooch77 says:

      RUT trerribly O.S. but can still go lower,throwing out baby with bath water??

      • radrian6 says:

        Yeah, it’s already overdone Pooch but I can’t see the bottom yet — still plenty of sellers. When markets are weak, Fridays tend to be bad days so I expect more selling tomorrow — any additional selling may finish wave 3 so look for a wave 4 bounce next week.

        When this downtrend concludes, we’ll see if RUT can emerge with an obvious V-shaped bottom or if it has to work harder.

    • Hiya Radrian, odds very low of RUT going below the lower weekly 20.2 band for any significant length of time without a strong retracement at minimum. All sorts of support lines around that area going back years (1090ish). 2/3rds of the way there already. A big bounce before that would be suspect IMO.

      • radrian6 says:

        We see it the same way, Twoside but traders are running scared right now and the news is bad with the Malaysian jet crash in the Ukraine. Tomorrow is likely to be ugly with SPX futures already down 10 points. One of our political leaders may need to step up with some good news to stop the bleeding.

      • I agree. Market was looking for an excuse to correct and it’s found a couple. Don’t see ww3 coming from this though.

  39. 56rambler says:

    Tony, are you still thinking int wave iv bottoms between the 1901 and 1929 pivots? Thank you!

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