SHORT TERM: higher open then pullback, DOW +5
Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.7%. Europe opened lower and lost 0.7%. US index futures were higher overnight. At 8:30 Retails sales were reported higher: +0.2% v +0.3%, Export (-0.3% v +0.1%)/Import (-0.1% v 0.0%) prices were reported lower, and the NY FED was reported higher: 25.6 v 19.3. The market opened three points above yesterday’s SPX 1977 close, hit 1983 in the first 15 minutes of trading, and then started to pullback. Just past 9:30 FED counsel Alvarez’s testimony was released: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/testimony/alvarez20140715a.htm. Then at 10am Business inventories were reported higher: +0.5% v +0.6%, and FED chair Yellen began her Senate testimony: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/testimony/yellen20140715a.htm. Just before 11am the SPX hit 1969, bounced to 1975 by 11:30, then dropped to 1965 by noon. After that the market started to rally. Around 2:30 the SPX hit 1976, then dipped to end the day at 1973.
For the day the SPX/DOW were mixed, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.45%. Bonds lost 3 ticks, Crude dropped $1.00, Gold slid $12, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 1973 and 1956 pivots, with resistance at the 2019 and 2070 pivots. Tomorrow: the PPI at 8:30, Industrial production at 9:15, the NAHB index at 10am, FED chair Yellen continues her testimony in the House, and the FED’s beige book at 2pm.
The market opened higher today, cleared the OEW 1973 pivot range by three points, then immediately began to pullback. The pullback dropped to SPX 1965, overlapping the first rally up from SPX 1953. We still count only three waves up from SPX 1953: 1970-1960-1983. This suggests the entire rally looks like a B wave, unless the alternate count is correct and Minor wave 5 is subdividing. A drop below SPX 1960 would favor the B wave scenario, and a rally above 1986 would favor the Minor 5 scenario. The market ended the day about in the middle.
Short term support is at the 1973 and 1956 pivots, with resistance at SPX 1986 and the 2019 pivot. Short term momentum dropped to oversold then bounced to neutral to end the day. The short term OEW charts flip-flopped again today, ending neutral with the reversal level at SPX 1973. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: downtrend still the most likely count
LONG TERM: bull market