monday update

SHORT TERM: gap up opening, DOW +112

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.4%. Europe opened higher and rebounded 0.9%. US index futures were higher overnight, and the market gapped up at the open to SPX 1977. The market had ended last week at SPX 1968. In the opening minutes the market dipped to SPX 1976, then moved to 1980 by 11am. After that the market sort of drifted lower for the rest of the day closing at 1977.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.55%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.60%. Bonds lostΒ 7 ticks, Crude added 20 cents, Gold dropped $30, and the USD was lower. Medium term support rises to the 1973 and 1956 pivots, with resistance at the 2019 and 2070 pivots. Tomorrow: Retail sales (est. +0.7%), the NY FED and Export/Import prices at 8:30, then Business inventories at 10am. Also at 10am: FED chair Yellen testifies before the Senate on the semi-annual report of monetary policy, plus FED counsel Alvarez testifies before the House.

The market gapped up to start the week, and today’s rally to SPX 1980 pushed our Minor B wave scenario to the limit of the OEW 1973 pivot range. During the rally, however, the DOW, NDX and TRAN all made new bull market highs. This suggests the possibility that the uptrend is not done yet. As a result we posted an alternate count on the NAZ daily chart, suggesting Minor 4 ended recently, (at the SPX 1953 equivalent), and we are now in Minor 5. Should the SPX make new highs this would be the accepted count.


Short term support is now at the 1973 and 1956 pivots, with resistance at SPX 1986 and the 2019 pivot. Short term momentum hit extremely overbought at the high. The short term OEW charts remain positive with the reversal level now SPX 1974. Best to your trading Tuesday’s eventful activity.

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend/downtrend at cross roads

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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95 Responses to monday update

  1. This is one stubborn bull! I am out of my shorts.

  2. H D says:

    Their ability to stop the tape is amazing. Big fancy astro date manana. GL

  3. manunidhi21 says:

    Namaste Tony!

    Are we preferring NAZ count or unclear yet ?

    Also, Dow made a new high today but SPX/NAZ did not and same otherwise.
    when can we expect these indices to align

  4. uncle10 says:

    Some nice work by the board this morning. Well done.
    Im filled up short. stop above todays high. gl all

  5. lunker1 says:

    would be nice to see a LL 1961/63 backtest of 1986/69 TL w +D
    then bullish nested 1,2’s?

  6. H D says:

    third rally today, all ~6, 1971 or bigger retracement IMO

  7. No sign of Caldaro this morning. He must be going through the YELLEN report to adjust the account. LOL. just kidding

  8. Elliott Wave Focus Noon Update 7.15.14 – $SPX $DJIA $COMPQ $AAPL $CMG $UPRO Holding into W2 support, reversal targets

  9. H D says:

    Tony, I guess we all want to know if that was 5 waves up from 1952? and possible failure, no HH

  10. dow down 40 points. S&P down 10. VIX futures selling off now. a sign market will rally back

  11. H D says:

    Nice work lunker1 ! putting in the time and analysis pays off.

  12. After Greenspan’s 12/5/96 Irrational Exuberance speech, the market initially sold off hard but quickly recovered. Much different chart pattern, though.

  13. Hi Tony,
    It looks to me like wave C is in progress, what do you think?

  14. ariez5 says:

    Tony, Yellen’s comments aside, I think QQQ is very vulnerable here (full disclosure: am heavily short). Massive divergences.

  15. I’m still in agreement with Tony’s count and believe we just witness Minor b top at 1982.52
    with minor c underway

  16. lunker1 says:

    Purple might provide tricky stop busting too.
    Vacation starts tonight. RSW/BOS/NH. πŸ˜€

  17. blubrd67 says:

    Topny, even that SPX didn’t make new highs, is today'[s crossing above 1980 enough to believe we are in minute ii of minor 5?

  18. lunker1 says:

    “like I said”….AAPL likes to double top and bottom. πŸ˜‰

    • lunker1 says:

      might see an intraday .887 back up to Red
      or a push up to Blue for a tricky double top to run stops

  19. lunker1 says:

    5 down to ~1971/72 ish almost complete
    now expect .618 up to 1978 ish
    cheap short coming?

  20. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony
    I forgot to figure in the Yellen Pivot this week. πŸ˜‰
    SPY ~ WPP @ 196.55

  21. rc1269 says:

    we’ll have to see what Yellen’s soft voice can do for us, but otherwise looks to me like that’s a wrap

  22. lunker1 says:

    SPX .887 1982 and the 1.447 of 1576->667 1982.5

    So far it stopped right where it should have.

  23. rc1269 says:

    dow back to top of channel. fwiw

  24. manunidhi21 says:

    Namaste Tony!
    What will trigger the alternate count, closing above 1986 or even intraday crossing ?

  25. Valunvstr, Tried to reply to your weekend comments re: GDX, but no replies allowed (probably because it is not the weekend anymore). You are correct that I had sold GDX … and then I got back in last week. I had temporary good gains and departed with $69. LOL. Based on the weekly chart, it is still bullish because it is over the 10 week MA, but it seems it wants to trade in this range for awhile. So, I’ll wait (again) for, hopefully, a better price. When a stock is trading sideways, it is tough to trade.

  26. rc1269 says:

    the “guide lower and then beat” playbook strikes again. 16 quarters in a row and going strong
    it seems the same trick really can work over and over

  27. rc1269 says:

    What I find funny is that everybody always seems to know exactly what everybody is thinking and doing

  28. $SPX $DJIA $COMPQ $GC_F $DAX Elliott Wave Forecasts July 15, 2014 Hear me say “oh wow” on many breakouts [Wavegenius]

    • cmucha68 says:

      Short term S&P 2100
      ??? Aha, why not let’s make it then 2500 ? I don’t know, but your analysis is quite strange. And to say: if this happens, then the market goes that way and if not it goes the other way that’s kindergarten. If if if does never help. Either you know where the market goes or not.

  29. Top 5 Cult Elliott Wave Forecast-These levels MUST break or it’s DOOM C city [Wavegenius] $TSLA $NFLX $DDD $CSIQ $KBH

    Long Term Elliott Wave Top 5 Tech 7.15.14 – ALL 5 Have HUGE W3 breakouts [Wavegenius] $AAPL $GOOGL $INTC $MSFT $CSCO

  30. Top 5 Internet Elliott Wave Forecast 7/15 – W5 and 618 reversals in progress > targets – $BIDU $FB $YELP $YHOO $QIHU

    Elliott Wave Forecasts Top 5 Food -5 of 3 targets after deep 4 retracements $SBUX $BWLD $PNRA $CMG $BWLD [Wavegenius]

  31. RDC says:

    It is funny how quickly waves change, up until last week Friday, everybody was saying rally has ended and were piling up short positions and today everything is changed, everybody has rally hat back on and talking their targets once again above 2000.

    • joecthetruthteller says:

      Yep, very interesting. We are now in a downtrend, no, its up, no its crossroads

  32. 5wavemodel says:

    I am looking for a move higher to SPX 1991+/-, followed by a pullback of 8+ points before another move higher.


  33. soulsurfer says:

    another way to look at it.

    assuming minor 4 is @ SPX $1953, then the following Minor 5 targets can be calculated based on the most common relationship between a 1st and 5th wave, in this case with minor 1 (1814->1885, 71 points)
    5=1x 1, SPX=2024
    5=0.62x 1, SPX=1997
    5=0.5x 1, SPX=1989

  34. gtoptions says:

    SPY ~ Potential Bullish Gartley Setup & Target. Charted the Fibs after I took a closer look at the AB=CD pattern target I posted earlier.

  35. Greg Polites says:

    Hi Tony; gald to see you moved back to the possibility of the uptrend continuing since this now matches our indicators from July 3rd that expected a minor retracement for the SP500 then resumption of the rally to new highs. Cheers, Greg

  36. RUT chart not all that encouraging for a wave 5 here.

  37. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony
    Well they left the SPY hanging with a Doji. πŸ˜‰
    At least there is a 50% chance to extend higher.

    β€œBetter a diamond with a flaw than a pebble without.”
    – Confucius –

  38. attitude928 says:

    Thanks Tony. TNA fingerprinting suggests resumption of the $RUT downleg tomorrow.

  39. soulsurfer says:

    thanks Tony!

    The gap up open at spx 1977 and then only a 3 point rally to 1980 is made visual by looking at SPY: open at $197.61, high $197.86, close $197.56. Hence, I can’t really say that today was a big fat bull run.

    • radrian6 says:

      Agree, Soul. RUT was up less than six points so the risk appetite is not that strong. RUT gapped up at the open but ran into resistance near 1168 which matched the low of June 25. If there is another wave lower (C-wave), it should come soon. Otherwise, if the minor 5 scenario plays out, RUT may struggle to make new highs and we may see this minor 5 truncate.

    • bhtrade says:

      Then there’s QQQ, spent the majority of the day above last weeks highs

      • soulsurfer says:

        IWM not looking to hot, 5 down from the recent high… now in b-wave up, this will likely push broader indices up, but wait for that c-wave down…

    • tony caldaro says:

      a response to Europe’s rebound

  40. bouraq says:

    Gapped up and never looked back:

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