SHORT TERM: quiet ending to a gapped filled week, DOW +29
Yesterday FED vice chair Fischer gave his first speech: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/fischer20140710a.htm. Overnight Asian markets lost 0.6%. European markets opened higher and gained 0.3%. US index futures were higher overnight, but the market opened flat at SPX 1965. In the opening half hour the market ticked up to SPX 1966, pulled back to 1960, and then tried to rally. At 10:30 the SPX hit 1966 again, pulled back to 1961 by 11:30, and then tried to rally again. At 3:30 the SPX hit its best level of the day at 1969, then dipped to end the week at 1968.
For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.15%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.55%. Bonds gained 3 ticks, Crude dropped $2.20, Gold added $2, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 1956 and 1929 pivots, with resistance at the 1973 and 2019 pivots. Last night the FED reported a decline in the Monetary base: $3.914tn v $3.963tn. Today the WLEI was reported higher: 54.4% v 54.3%.
The market opened flat today after four consecutive gap openings. The market then traded down to SPX 1960 before rising for the rest of the day. With Europe closing up on the day, and the tech sector showing relative strength, the cyclicals drifted higher after Europe closed. Thus far we are counting this potential Intermediate wave iv downtrend as A down (1959-1974-1953), B up (1970-1960-????), with a C wave to follow likely next week during earnings.
Short term support is at the 1956 and 1929 pivots, with resistance at the 1973 pivot and SPX 1986. Short term momentum rose to overbought today. The short term OEW charts flip-flopped again today with the reversal level now SPX 1965. Best to your weekend!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend likely topped
LONG TERM: bull market