friday update

SHORT TERM: quiet ending to a gapped filled week, DOW +29

Yesterday FED vice chair Fischer gave his first speech: Overnight Asian markets lost 0.6%. European markets opened higher and gained 0.3%. US index futures were higher overnight, but the market opened flat at SPX 1965. In the opening half hour the market ticked up to SPX 1966, pulled back to 1960, and then tried to rally. At 10:30 the SPX hit 1966 again, pulled back to 1961 by 11:30, and then tried to rally again. At 3:30 the SPX hit its best level of the day at 1969, then dipped to end the week at 1968.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.15%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.55%. Bonds gained 3 ticks, Crude dropped $2.20, Gold added $2, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 1956 and 1929 pivots, with resistance at the 1973 and 2019 pivots. Last night the FED reported a decline in the Monetary base: $3.914tn v $3.963tn. Today the WLEI was reported higher: 54.4% v 54.3%.

The market opened flat today after four consecutive gap openings. The market then traded down to SPX 1960 before rising for the rest of the day. With Europe closing up on the day, and the tech sector showing relative strength, the cyclicals drifted higher after Europe closed. Thus far we are counting this potential Intermediate wave iv downtrend as A down (1959-1974-1953), B up (1970-1960-????), with a C wave to follow likely next week during earnings.

Short term support is at the 1956 and 1929 pivots, with resistance at the 1973 pivot and SPX 1986. Short term momentum rose to overbought today. The short term OEW charts flip-flopped again today with the reversal level now SPX 1965. Best to your weekend!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend likely topped

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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34 Responses to friday update

  1. Hope if you this weekend could give us a more clear updat on international markets. What is ending bull markets like (CAC?) and what is not, also would like to know more in depth analysis on greek markets is its starting wave 3 of 3 or , if wave c down first coming , before starting rally in wave 3 of 3.

    Thank you

  2. Tony

    Furthermore , what is your view on DAX ?

    Did DAX end primary wave III and starting a major primary IV correction ?

  3. Tony

    Am I right when seeing JCP possible about to make a 3 of 3 to upside or am I wrong?

    You said earlier that there was no stock out there about to make 3 of 3 up.

    Also if mkts about to turn bearish , is SCTY the only you track which looks very bearish next months ?

    Thank you

  4. kvilia says:

    You guys don’t understand reverse psychology in soccer: ARG 7 – GER 1

  5. Shreveport says:

    Using OEW, can this B leg make a nominal new bull market high? If so, how nominal?

    • CB says:

      That’s the most interesting question I’ve seen today…
      Thanks for you hard work, Tony.

    • perceval7 says:

      The answer to this question on Tony’s Yahoo blog (a day or 2 ago) was “a little higher than the high of 1986+/- SPX….. Tony commented and said he agreed. So it seems we have a little bit of room to get this B wave completed, hopefully ruining as many bulls and bears as possible in the process. Is the ECB on the schedule for next Wed am? If so, Draghi should be about ready to crush some shorts in the EU for a nice bounce…….

    • pimacanyon says:

      I believe it can, but I’d like to hear Tony’s response to the other part of your question: If it does make a new high, what’s the limit? How much higher than the current high can it be before you’d say it’s no longer the B wave of the correction but instead it’s a new impulse wave?

    • CB says:

      Great stuff, guys. Thanks Shreveport, Perceval, Pima! One way to look at it is to watch the daily RSI… should reach OB again near the 2K level,right?
      .. 2014 would be almost 2 funny, but who knows…😉

  6. Jordi Güell says:

    Hi Tony, which is your C wave target for the Dow? as always, thank you very much

  7. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony
    Good Weekend All

  8. JK1987 says:

    Tony Thanks

    My forecast on Sunday championship game:
    ARG 1: Ger 0

    Reason: German in downtrend;

    What’s your forecast of the game?

  9. Tony can you explain to me what you mean by OEW chart flipped flopped?? thanks

  10. Thanks, Tony! As ALWAYS, looking forward to the weekend update with my morning brew. 🙂

    -OEW Coffee Club Member

  11. radrian6 says:


    • radrian6 says:

      Unable to post recently and still having problems. Yesterday, I wanted to point out that the McClellan Oscillator had reached -140 and the equity markets generally respond with a rally by the time the Oscillator reaches -200. I also wanted to note the RUT appears to be near the halfway point in this correction — there’s support at 1155-50 but buyers are not stepping in to take over the market. From this, I would assume another selloff is coming soon. Next week is OpEx so the markets may continue flat then correct the following week. This correction, so far, is similar to the intermediate correction in late January — a few days of selling, a pause, then a finishing plunge.

      There are still a couple of open gaps at 1173 and at 1187 so if RUT wanted to rally next week, there’s room overhead. Downside targets are tough to call but RUT may finish near 1140-1138.

      • pooch77 says:

        Rad Man, Sat ,Bradley turndate Tues,say we movin on up.Daily looks bottomed

      • wildmick says:

        pooch those turn dates can be effective almost a week either side of the actual date. unless all of wave C takes place Monday you might want to leave a little room to maneuver. make sure bottom is in first. imo.

      • pooch77 says:

        Wildmick,agree the often are off few days, but seeing as how we are trending down iam looking for upside reversal and turn around tue.could easly have monday gapper down though

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