thursday update

SHORT TERM: gap down then rebound, DOW -71

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.2%. Europe opened lower and lost 1.0%. US index futures were much lower overnight, and at 8:30 weekly Jobless claims were reported lower: 304k v 315k. The market gapped down to SPX 1957 at the open, hit 1953 just before 10am, then started to rally. The SPX had closed at 1973 yesterday. At 10am Wholesale inventories was reported higher: +0.5% v +1.1%. The rally continued into the afternoon when the SPX reached 1970 by 1:30. Then after a pullback to SPX 1962 by 3pm, the market bounced to 1967 by 3:30, then closed at 1965.

For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.40%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.40%. Bonds gained 4 ticks, Crude rose 55 cents, Gold was $7 higher, and the USD moved up as well. Medium term support remains at the 1956 and 1929 pivots, with resistance at the 1973 and 2019 pivots. Tomorrow: the Treasury budget at 2pm.

The market gapped down at the open today for the third time this week. It immediately took out Tuesday’s SPX 1959 low, adding probability to the Intermediate wave iv downtrend. Then after setting up a positive short term divergence around 10am, the market started to rally. We posted a tentative Minor a label at to today’s SPX 1953 low. The rally to SPX 1970 looks like it is either part, or all, of Minor wave b. This market has been trading mostly between the 1956 and 1973 pivots this week. If this count is correct Minor c should be underway soon. Likely downside target for Int. iv is between the 1901 and 1929 pivots.

Short term support remains at the 1956 and 1929 pivots, with resistance at the 1973 pivot and SPX 1986. Short term momentum bounced to neutral after today’s positive divergence. The short term OEW charts continue to flip-flop, which is often signs of a correction, and the reversal level is now SPX 1966. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend likely topped

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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84 Responses to thursday update

  1. uncle10 says:

    Thanks Tony.
    Back in the saddle next week. Its been a great summer so far!
    Going home with a short position.
    Great weekend all.

  2. Obvious head and shoulder top on SP 500 and clear double top on Small Cap Russell 2000… no need to overthink it…

  3. gary61b says:

    Tony, would it be possible that minute c of minor a is not complete yet? Minute “c” seems a little short as compared to minute “a”, of minor a.

  4. lunker1 says:

    the lack of a bounce in IWM leads me to believe that the B wave in SPX still has more upside. would seem IWM should at least close the gap at 116.49 which is just below the .382

    • lunker1 says:

      AAPL cooled down while Q’s broke out.
      Q’s might be pushing for an .887 = 95.48 or a double top 95.71
      AAPL might do the same to complete it’s C of B up.
      AAPL loves to double top and bottom.

    • lunker1 says:

      SPX is bumping up against it’s lower highs resistance TL. curious to see what it does and INDU does at it’s TL at 16950. the SPY TL is slightly higher and is similar distance away to INDU

  5. wildmick says:


    if you please sir, how many points make up a minute wave? from reading your site awhile I get the impression that you want to see a minimum of 9 points. under what conditions are the waves cut short? triangles? others?

  6. soulsurfer says:

    I just read through all the posts here, and boy is there a wealth of good information! i am impressed and humbled. You guys know your stuff, thanks for sharing, and this is what makes us better traders and more profitable: collective knowledge! wohooo!

    Tony, you surely have collected an amazing crowed.

  7. my assumed Minor B count.
    Minute a (zigzag) complete at 1970
    Minute b (zigzag with triangle) should be complete 1962 (end of wave e of triangle)
    minute c of minor b should be underway.

  8. Kevin M says:

    B wave to 1985ish? Just looks like it…..Add to that the Russell needs a violent snap back(possibly to fill gap at 1185ish) and you get the SPX to the area I suggested. Naz looks healthy today also…..


    • cmucha68 says:

      If we can take out 1970 today it will shoot up like a rocket

    • pooch77 says:

      Russel trying to put floor in,sure is struggling though,stoch on daily flattened out,by the time the macd flattens out it will move up 8-10 points

    • pooch77 says:

      Saturday is full moon,Tues major Bradley turn so I would not be short

      • pimacanyon says:

        but which way will the turn be? market’s going up into the full moon, and other than this small correction of the past few days, it’s been going up for a long time. So if the Bradley turn date turns out to mark a significant turn, I would expect the market to head lower on, or close to, the turn date, not higher.

        But I don’t know how accurate his turn dates are, so… take with a grain of salt.

        Me, I’m sticking with Tony’s forecast till proven otherwise. We still need a C wave to the downside to complete the correction. I want 1930 or lower. 😉

      • soulsurfer says:

        “turn around tuesday”: monday and tuesday to finish minor c, then intra-day reversal for starting intermediate v!? my ideal path

  9. lunker1 says:

    AAPL wanted to backtest it’s old 2 week support TL.
    Q’s several attempts at 57.07.
    a break above may be be a sign that SPX B wave isn’t done.

  10. nyjsec314 says:

    this c-wave is a snoozer

  11. rc1269 says:

    well if we’re following the patterns of recent past, we should start rallying here after a 1959 intraday low

  12. Pre-market Elliott Wave Focus 5: $SPX $DJIA $COMPQ $DAX $GC_F – 5 down bottom and reversal 1.618 scenarios

  13. Pre-Market Top 5 Big Tech Elliott Wave Update – Bottom and reversal 618 targets – $AAPL $GOOGL $INTC $CSCO $MSFT [WG]

  14. rc1269 says:

    i just noticed the highly effective CNN Money Fear/Greed index went from near-record readings of Fear to a neutral reading of 55 and all it took was declining 1% off the all time highs. at this rate, if we drop another 1-2% it should be indicating it’s the buying opportunity of a lifetime!
    good stuff.

  15. Vox Zeit says:

    Tony et al, can you confirm/clarify if OEW is currently suggesting the following:

    — the FTSE100 has completed Pri-C uptrend, and is now starting a Cyc-B downtrend which is expected to re-visit the 2009 lows

    — whilst the FTSE100 is commencing a Cyc-B downtrend bear market, the S&P500 continues to uptrend and is yet to complete Pri-IV and Pri-V, and hence yet to complete Cyc-1.

    — isn’t this a rather large disparity between the EU and US which have both rallied together since the 2009 low?

    — AAPL has exceeded the Pri-V label, are you able to confirm if the current uptrend is a b-wave rally, or is labelling requring an adjustment?

  16. ocaj2000 says:


  17. Top 10 Tech Elliott Wave Forecast – W5 and 618 reversals – $AAPL $MSFT $CSCO $INTC $GOOGL $YHOO $BIDU $QIHU $YELP $FB

  18. GDX (weekly) … come on — get over resistance. That IH&S still lookin’ good.

  19. Surmising here that the boyz will back-test and fill gap at 1188 on the Russell and then get down to that large cluster of support at 1123 — consolidate a little there and then down to 1087.$RUT&p=120&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p92031872280&a=355347127&listNum=7
    Bounced off the 50MA today and trapped between 34MA today. MACD and TSI pointing straight down, so in order to keep these down, will they gap up tomorrow and/or Monday to get there fast and reverse? Check out that left-over gap down there at 783. On our way there over next few months?$RUT&p=D&st=2012-08-02&en=today&id=p23377846392&a=358920030&listNum=7

  20. torehund says:

    The naked truth, debth to GDP, and take the inverse of that number GDP/debth and X Natural Resources and you can pretty much know where prosperity will prevail for the NeXT decades.
    Russia is on top, and Japan at the very bottom.

  21. bouraq says:

    Yo-yo back in town:

  22. blackjak100 says:

    If the count is correct, I believe minor b has more to go simply to keep minor b more into proportion with minor a. Minute c of minor b and 1973 just might do it!

  23. pooch77 says:

    wow ,I see more down tomorrow into Monday??

  24. soulsurfer says:

    minor a was 33 points, minor b should ideally retrace back to 1969-1973 (50-62% retrace), and minor c should then ideally go to 1936-1920 (c=a to c=1.618). Next 2-3 days (turn around Tuesday next week!?)

  25. 56rambler says:

    Are you expecting Int iv to be an a-b-c wave? Then followed by Int v to new highs (which would then complete Major 5 and Primary III)? Thanks, Tony.

  26. soulsurfer says:

    thanks tony!! as silly as it may sound currently, but it’s about time to start making a shopping list for longing intermediate v 😉 and once minor c gets going it’s time to act upon it and exit short positions. Gotta always have an action plan. 🙂

    • gokalg says:

      Soul planning for next move is always wise. Acting is another key factor. We could possibly have a playoff about 100 points for Int v (1925-2025). Then Pri IV 10-15% down(250+) points or higher. What is your best guess for int v timing given next week is OPEX and earning season, Int iv needs to be ompleted within next 2-4 days.Your thoughts on this?

      • soulsurfer says:

        Yes, planning is one, acting on it is two. But no plan, no action. The six Ps of life are: proper planning prevents piss poor performance!

        My idea is int iv done in the next few days, but time is secondary to price… So there is no “needs to”. If pressed I’d say int med v would be done in August. Like primary I topped a few months before QE1 was ended, likely P III will do the same before QE3 -or whatever it is now- will be ended in October.

        I agree that intermediate v should go to 2025, primary IV down to low 1800s, high 1700s. But that’s just my ideal world… 😉

    • wildmick says:

      hello soulsurfer! am I right in charting this int iv when presently I have minute a of minor b?

  27. attitude928 says:

    Great job Tony. TNA fingerprinting suggests more up for the $RUT tomorrow.

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