weekend update


The holiday shortened week started on Monday with new bull markets highs, and continued making higher highs nearly every day this week. For the week the SPX/DOW were +1.3%, the NDX/NAZ were +1.3%, and the DJ World index gained 1.4%. Economic reports for the week were mixed. But the big news was the 288k jump in payrolls and the decline in the unemployment rate to 6.1%. On the uptick: pending home sales, construction spending, the ADP index and the Trade deficit improved. On the downtick: the Chicago PMI, factory orders, ISM manufacturing/services, and weekly jobless claims rose. Next week we get reports on Consumer credit, the Treasury deficit, and the FOMC minutes.

LONG TERM: bull market

Prior to 2013 the all time record for the SPX was the 2007 high at 1576. This week the SPX hit 1986: 26% above that high. And the market is now 198% above the great recession low at SPX 667. This market has nearly tripled in just over five years. During the same five year span: 10 year bonds have yielded between 1.39% and 4.01%, money market funds even less, while the FED has quintupled the money supply from $800bn to $4tn. Yet the GDP raw data as only increased 19.2% ($14.342tn to $17.090tn). We certainly live in extraordinary times.


We continue to count this bull market as Cycle wave [1] of the new multi-generational Super cycle 3. Cycle wave bull markets unfold in five Primary waves. Primary waves I and II completed in 2011, and Primary III continues to unfold. When it does conclude we should have a Primary IV correction similar to Primary II in 2011. Then Primary V should again take the market to all time new highs. A four year Presidential cycle low is due this year, which usually creates the low for the year. The majority of the time they occur in July or October. Since the market still needs an a downtrend (Int. iv), then an uptrend (Int. v), to complete Primary III. It looks like the four year low will occur in the fourth quarter.

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

The current Intermediate wave iii uptrend has been unfolding since the mid April Int. wave ii low of SPX 1814. For the first several weeks of this uptrend few imagined we would be making new highs. Yet here we are, nearly 90 points above the April SPX 1897 high. We have been counting this uptrend with five Minor waves: Minor 1 @1885, Minor 2 @1851, Minor 3 @1968, and recently Minor 4 @1945. Minor wave 5 has been underway since that low.


When the uptrend began we had targeted the OEW 1956 and 1973 pivots as likely uptrend highs, with an outside chance for the 2019 pivot. The 1956 pivot was hit during Minor 3, the 1973 pivot put the top in Minor 3, now Minor wave 5 just cleared that pivot and appears heading to the 2019 pivot. At the 2019 pivot Minor 5 would equal Minor 1 and 0.618 Minor 3. Yet there appears to be two important resistance levels before this can occur: @SPX 1989 Minor 5 equals 0.618 Minor 1, and of course @SPX 2000. Medium term support is at the 1973 and 1956 pivots, with resistance at the 2019 and 2070 pivots.


Short term support is at the 1973 and 1956 pivots, with resistance at SPX 1989 and the 2019 pivot. Short term momentum ended the week extremely overbought. The short term OEW charts remain positive with the reversal level now SPX 1977.


When Minor wave 5 began we were not quite sure Minor 4 had completed. It was only two days and the decline was only 23 points. However, when the market hit SPX 1968 again on Tuesday it was quite clear Minor wave 5 was underway. Ever since this rally began, a week ago Thursday, the pullbacks have been quite small. We have currently risen 41 points without a meaningful pullback. This type of uninterrupted thrust has not occurred, in this uptrend, since Minor wave 1 (69 points) and the exact center of Minor wave 3 (57 points).

If we consider the three small pullbacks we do arrive with an OEW pattern: 1958-1952-1964-1958-1979-1973-1986. SPX 1958 and 1952 would be the first and second waves, then a five wave sequence to the current SPX 1986 high. This pattern would suggest there is one more small pullback then new highs before this rally ends. Something to keep in mind in the upcoming week. Best to your trading.


The Asian markets were all higher this week for a net gain of 1.5%.

The European markets were all higher as well for a gain of 1.4%.

The Commodity equity group were also all higher gaining 1.1%.

The DJ World index continues to uptrend and gained 1.4%.


Bonds remain in a downtrend and lost 0.9% on the week.

Crude has been struggling of late losing 1.6% for the week.

Gold is still uptrending gaining 0.3% on the week.

The USD bounced around this week gaining 0.2%.


Tuesday: Consumer credit at 3pm. Wednesday: the FOMC minutes. Thursday: weekly Jobless claims and Wholesale inventories. Friday: the Treasury deficit. Vice chair Fischer gives his first speech on Thursday right after the close at 4:30. Best to your three day weekend and week!

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

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107 Responses to weekend update

  1. lunker1 says:

    C=A at 1975

  2. blackjak100 says:

    Interesting to see if minute iv ended at 1975, it would equal minute i and minor 5 would be .618*minor 1. Looks like 1985-1990 will be a great spot to scalp short.

    • blackjak100 says:

      Meant to say if minute iv ended at 1975, then minute v = minute i = 1989 = .618*Minor 1

  3. One more NDX rally for a nominal new high into Wednesday’s cycle top, and then a 4-8 week correction.

  4. I’m going to call it in….minute iv of minor 5 is complete at 1975ish….and minute v of minor 5 is underway

  5. H D says:

    10 point hit… you think for 1 second that is not BTD? anybody…….

  6. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony ~ Appreciate the WEU.
    The weekly FOMC Pivot is in full effect. 😉
    SPY ~ WPP @ 197.34

  7. Looking for 5th wave of C wave in zigzag to complete before late day reversal http://wavegenius.com/what-sp-500-needs-now-scenario/

  8. blackjak100 says:

    The fact that minute iii was 2.618*minute i almost to the penny makes me think there is a new ATH coming this week and this is minute iv. 1989 or 2019 pivot is the $64,000 question.

  9. Boring, covered at 76.9

  10. manunidhi21 says:

    Dow below 17k may trigger a Int iii top ..its a may 🙂

  11. Tony

    Can we stick a fork in minor 5 top here ? Looks like its done here.

  12. GM Tony, all. summer vacations over, time to re focus, Seems markets today are in sync,that’s new? ES has measured move at channel TL. GL http://t.co/LtGeKMvZHA

  13. manunidhi21 says:

    Namaste Tony !
    where should we think Int.iii is in ?
    below 1973 or a more swift decent pullback

  14. My short at 1984.3 is turning out to be an excellent decision (as was my earlier short at 1967ish). No hedge fund in the world can hit with such great precision (it hit 1985.59). This is world record.

    No one praises me elsewhere that is why I have to come on this blog and self-praise!!!!! lolz

  15. pcskier says:

    Germany weak industrial #s is a sign of the global economy slowing down. Brazil and South Africa will be the next flashpoint, I expect brazil to default with in 10 yrs for the third time in my lifetime.

  16. rc1269 says:

    Good morning Tony. Hope your weekend was grand. Great weekend and crude updates this week. Maybe add the repo mkt to this ‘black swan’ moniter as well. Has been an issue for a little while now but starting to garner some more press. Good article on bloomberg this morning, worth checking out.

    Cheers and best to your week!

  17. [Free Index/Futures Forecasts] S&P, DOW, NASDAQ, S&P E-Mini, Nikkei and DAX Futures, Gold and Silver Futures http://wavegenius.com/recent-posts

  18. Well several weeks have past, and EW is still trying to forecast the future based on the past, a futile tail chasing exercise. In addition I see now it is trying to forecast Black Swan events…how ridiculous, how on earth can anyone forecast something that is a random event. Newbies beware EW was designed to take more money off you than it gives. Stay away, keep it simple, use support and resistance it always works.

  19. blackjak100 says:

    Does anyone remember high school economics class where everyone wondered why we couldn’t just print money to solve world debt? Then, the teacher’s response would be you can’t just print money because it will create inflation and cause prices to rise.

    While we aren’t solving the world debt situation, it seems we weren’t so dumb after all.

    • torehund says:

      The ordinary Ameican didnt get any of the Money, just incentives to work harder than ever to buy back their sold assets now in hands of the banks.
      The banksters have increased the asset prices With the populations borrowed Money (now US debt). Its a donky and the carrot game.

      • torehund says:

        But all in all the Product of this downturn cycle is good, the worker becomes more productive vs workers in other countries and inflation is kept in Check.
        In centrally regulated economies like the one in Norway, we havent had any crash awakening, and thats what makes us weak. Just look at the USD/NOK chart, we will soon look more like Zimbabwe. Sure its a Perfect short at some time, could even be right now. I Think we are entering a rapid boost of inflation all around the world, but much worse in Norway. USD is the least bad currency and gold is fundamentally not as ugly as before.

  20. Hope you had a nice weekend, Tony. Just getting caught up on your weekend update after another week of vacation. As always, yours is the only blog of interest to me — free of emotion and the most accurate guidance out there. Thanks for sharing!

    -OEW Coffee Club Member

  21. torehund says:


    I counted the Cape graph, as its the most visible among the BDI-constituents. A double ABC it may be. A little spooky With that X wave inbetween.

  22. torehund says:


    Tony, thanks for placing the ball in front of Our flippers, all WE have to do is to is flipp it 🙂

  23. blackjak100 says:

    Louise Yamada and yourself have major support for the S&P around 1900ish. Based on your roamap, this support should be broken in roughly 3-4 months time correct? I’m a huge believer that support at 1576 will be tested and hold the first time around. The only scenario that makes sense where this could happen is a 20%+ correction for P4 which would be another deep Primary correction. Then, a massive P5 to end bull market. It will be interesting to see how this unfolds.

  24. dwr51 says:

    I noticed that you did not mention the WLEI for this week. Is it because it was a holiday shortened week?

  25. cmucha68 says:

    Hi there folks: Has anybody an idea about soybean price projections for the next 4 month ? Trying to find sow chart or wave count analysis but nothing useful. If somebody has an opinion or perhaps a wave count for the second half I would be very grateful. Thanks !

  26. $PEIX, $XLRN, $ENG, $TWTR, The “Paranoid Android” roadmap for the coming week, part I:

    • Michael Cook says:

      You have an interesting blog, but your readers might be better served if your “portfolio allocation” section was presented in a spreadsheet format — at least visually it would be more readily assimilated. JMHO 🙂

  27. Anonymous says:

    Great work as always it sounds like October is when this 5 years rally will end? earnings will roll out starting next week…would appreciated it if you can define S&P max range and low end if possible. thanks again.

    • tony caldaro says:

      Have had 1970-2070 Q4 2014 for well over a year now

      • Anonymous says:

        Since we are at the top I’m afraid the risk is too high to go long…market didn’t go down when -2.9% GDP growth announced! I do believe earnings estimates are way too lofty…one last question Tony where do you see major support on S&P? I use SSO and SDS long and short ETF’s for short term trading.

      • alexhartley1 says:

        I currently target a PIII top in Aug and a PIV bottom in either Oct/Nov. Then we continue the PV rally into 2015 – 2016 (most likely the latter).

  28. manunidhi21 says:

    Namaste Tony !
    “If we consider the three small pullbacks we do arrive with an OEW pattern: 1958-1952-1964-1958-1979-1973-1986. SPX 1958 and 1952 would be the first and second waves, then a five wave sequence to the current SPX 1986 high”

    Is OEW count different from the short term count and chart on this blog ?

  29. attitude928 says:

    What the $RUT count? Thanks Tony!

  30. Libor Val says:

    HI Tony, one question. I thought that with QE diminishing the market stops climbing but it hasnt. now I think the market goes up even with QE 1B. it is the the psychology there is QE or what. so maybe no drop till December. If you take 25 pts (like last year with 85B) a month on SPY then we can get to 2100 -2200 till December, another 300 pts a year. what do you think?

  31. Anonymous says:

    to go long after S&P pullback what level are we talking about?

  32. soulsurfer says:

    Thanks for a fantastic update Tony! From the years-scale to almost hourly, you explain it all in one update in a clear and concise way! Unmatched! Can it get any better! Thanks again, and I hope you had a great 4th of July!

  33. Sensex – are you sure it’s a bear market rally? Lot of guys are saying we are already in bull market.

  34. Joel Wenger says:

    Market Outlook for the Week of July 7th = Uptrend Intact

    Short-term (20 DMA):
    The indexes closed above their 20-day moving averages. Per

    IBD, we’re still in a confirmed uptrend (Distribution day count is

    3 for S&P500, 2 for NASD)

    Intermediate (50 DMA):
    Market averages remain above their 50-day moving averages,

    and Elliott wave continues to indicate an uptrend.

    Long-term (200 DMA):
    Market averages are far extended from their 200 day moving

    averages, and the bull market continues per Elliot Wave.

  35. rosekdiem says:

    Tony, as one who is still green in counting the intermediate and minor waves, when this uptrend ends for the 5th minor wave, will that also be the completion of the third intermediate wave?

    And, if that ‘s the case, then do we have one more leg down to complete the fourth intermediate wave and then one more leg up to complete the major 3 wave?

    And, if I’m correct on that count…then is the best place to go long is at the completion of the fourth intermediate wave to the completion of the fifth intermediate wave/ third major wave?

    And, if I’m incorrect. just tell me I’m totally wrong!

    • tony caldaro says:

      Almost entirely correct.
      Only when the next uptrend completes it will end Primary III, not Major 3.
      But the next best time to buy is Int. iv, as you noted.

      • rosekdiem says:

        Thanks , Tony , for clarifying that for me. Hope you’re enjoying your holiday weekend!

      • gokalg says:

        I thought we are in minor5 of Intiii. When it completes Intiii. There will be trend change for Intiv. So do u not consider as completion of Int iii as uptrend completion too?

      • tony caldaro says:

        Gokal nothing has changed.
        uptrend Int. iii
        downtrend Int. iv
        uptrend Int. v/ Major 5/ Primary III

  36. lunker1 says:

    Hey Lee, world record number of red white n blue scantily clad coeds at Siesta Key beach yesterday and they all love Tonys pivots. 🇺🇸

    • Lee X says:

      Hey Lunker
      Now that’s a selfless act
      I love my country !
      USA !!!!

      Thanks Tony for your blog and weekend updates as they help me stay in the know since I’ve been running around enjoying my AARP discounts across this beautiful country of ours

  37. bouraq says:

    Weekend charts:

  38. mjtplayer says:

    Thank Tony!

    Looks like int iii could be topping this week, targeting the 1,929 pivot area for int iv?

  39. 16golfer says:

    Thanks Tony!  If the alt Dow chart/count is correct, how would the $SPX respond in a pull back to give a clue that count is the right one?

  40. jobjas says:

    SPX still a long way to go for P3 top (at least in time)
    Next long entry at ES 1932 for a 100 point profit.

  41. rolandu11 says:

    And again, new highs were reached. My indicators look not so bad, but bulls have to watch that not so many bears go into the bull camp.

Comments are closed.