thursday update

SHORT TERM: gap up and new highs, DOW +92

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.1%. Europe opened higher and gained 1.0%. US index futures were higher overnight. At 8:30 monthly Payrolls were reported higher: 288k v 217k, the Unemployment rate was lowered: 6.1% v 6.3%, the Trade deficit decreased: -$44.4 v -$47.2, and weekly Jobless clams were higher: 315k v 312k. The market gapped up at the open to SPX 1980 and continued to rally. The SPX had closed at 1975 yesterday. At 10am ISM services were reported lower: 56.0 v 56.3. The rally continued into the afternoon, with only two point pullbacks, to SPX 1986. A dip at the close ended the holiday shortened week at SPX 1985.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.55%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.60%. Bonds lost 4 ticks, Crude slid 45 cents, Gold dropped $7, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 1973 and 1956 pivots, with resistance at the 2019 and 2070 pivots. Tomorrow is the Independence day holiday.

The market gapped up at the open, making new highs in the process, and continued to SPX 1986 just before the close. With today’s rally Minor wave 5 has now advanced 41 points without a meaningful pullback. All pullbacks, from the Minor 4 low at SPX 1945, have been limited to 6 points. The next overhead resistance is at SPX 1989, where Minor 5 equals 0.618 times Minor 1. Relentless bull market. Have a happy 4th of July!

Short term support is at the 1973 and 1956 pivots, with resistance at SPX 1989 and the 2019 pivot. Short term momentum ended the week extremely overbought. The short term OEW charts remain positive from SPX 1960, and the reversal level is now 1977. Best to your three day weekend!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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34 Responses to thursday update

  1. torehund says:

    The C wave cuts through Waves that are themself Mirror images of eachother, and therefore cancel eachother out. Or the troubling part is just compressed in space, and when you release tension you get a long flattish strech not interfering With the ambivalent 5 or 3 Count.
    The Chinese themself brags about how plentiful their iron Ore supplies are, but they know the game, lol.

  2. Happy Independence Day to all. Is anybody selling stocks now, or are you all going to wait for the SPX to top like I am? I know exactly when that will be; do you?

  3. Libor Val says:

    Hi Tony, still think the February low wont be the president. 4 year low?

  4. torehund says:

    2 out of five Waves up completed, the squeezy 3rd is coming. The greenback will shine once more. Shorting the NOK is an option, but it is much better to buy US shares where there will be Growth and large Capital influxes

    • torehund says:

      …and if the dollar skyrockets its smart to buy some comodities -for everyone outside the US, and do this before it spikes.

  5. pcskier says:

    100 billion in QE left best case, 35b July, 25b aug sept, 15 b oct and oct fed meeting ends QE in nov. When we look back when the market rolled pre ending QE it was 6 weeks to 2 months before QE ended, but that was full months not taper we are now down to less than 6 weeks of original QE amount per 85b per month. Ltro from 2011 are set to roll off eu balance sheet in 2015 so even if they add a trillion it won’t be net new balance sheet expansion. Eutrophic momentum is what is left here, that may get sp 500 to 2050 but we are know what happens next. My guess sell Monday, big volume this Tuesday and markets close red for month by close Tuesday.

  6. soulsurfer says:

    in support of blackjal100’s recent post regarding the 2.618x extension of minute i for minute iii; here’s a picture and the expected path forward. 1989 seems ideal target for minor 5…

  7. Greg Polites says:

    Hi Tony: From my indicators today’s SP500 and DJW moves show a minor retracement then a move to new highs.
    Happy 4th, Greg

  8. bouraq says:

    Bull feast:

    • torehund says:

      Bouraq I can see you think copper has turned, fits With a large scale 2 if China now rolls up. The Chinese are sniffing around also here in Norway, just hope my countrymen are not too naive selling stuff at the bottom. Miners are priced for eternal disaster, not just the gold miners.

      • bouraq says:

        “miners are priced for eternal disaster” isn’t it the time t buy miners?
        The only risk for copper comes again from China. There’s a lot pessimism around China but pessimists can get more pessimist if China’s real estate markets crash big time from here.

  9. blackjak100 says:

    Well, 2.618*minute i = 1985.74. It’s very likely minute iii is over and we should see a 10-15 pt correction for minute iv starting mon. Then a final rise to 1989ish to complete int iii???? Then a drop to 1929 pivot for int iv? Then a PIII top at 2019 pivot?

    • pooch77 says:

      B.J wish it was that easy!! But its been anything but

    • soulsurfer says:

      i agree bj100. often monday’s a red after a green none-farm payroll jobs number. expecting not much more than a 6-10point pullback though…

      • Soul, are you at all wooried about a massive sell off. An ending diagnal in the dow for example. A very smart man on this board posted he was buying July and aug puts. When he speaks i listen. All this europhia, people now talking Dow 20k, scares the hell out of me. Just curious,

        • soulsurfer says:

          i am always cautious, which is different from worried. i don’t see the current count supporting a sell-off just yet. that will come during primary IV to start with. Almost there, just not quit yet…But as you may have noticed, i am scaling into some inverse ETFs… been a while

    • cmucha68 says:

      I agree. And By using some put and call options at the right time can make a handsome profit.

  10. It surprised me that the A-D ratio didn’t make a new high when it was in such easy striking range. I thought it might be weakness in the interest-sensitive stocks and preferreds (which trade somewhat like bonds), but the financial sector ETF’s looked strong.
    I noticed that earlier this week Tony doubled the pivot range of the 2019

  11. lunker1 says:

    H4 o’ J 😀

  12. radrian6 says:

    The fib target for the RUT remains at 1218 which is the 161.8% extension of the previous internal swing. The current leg has run up 45 points from the low of 1168.53 to the high of 1213.55; a continuation to 1218 would bring it to 50 points.

    I think it’s unlikely that RUT goes beyond 1218 without a correction but I can’t say how much of a correction. The four previous pullbacks have all been 25 points and if that’s the limit of this corrective move, RUT will come back to 1193. If RUT breaks below 1193, I will assume the entire impulse from 1082 is correcting and I would expect retracement toward the weekly BB midline which is now near 1156. A correction from 1218 to the 1150 area would be a 50% retracement of the uptrend.

    The RVX closed the day at 15.97 and I would expect volatility expansion if the RVX drops to its support near 15.

  13. soulsurfer says:

    thanks tony, happy 4th and see ya on the other side of the 3-day weekend.

  14. pcskier says:

    Thanks tony,

    Maybe sell off next week after people digest how good the news was today ,15 billion taper for Aug? The $vix on the monthly and daily looks ready bounce$VIX&p=M&b=5&g=0&id=p82445747243&a=269387238&listNum=1

    • pcskier says:

      I think the tell will be high yield. Hyg took a hit today jnk not so much. But if high yield rolls and $vix spikes it should be the real deal. $tnx or the 10 yr bond found buyers at its 200dma, that’s what crazy about this market, threat of deflation with heavy irrational asset inflation.

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