SHORT TERM: consolidation Yellen day, DOW +20
Overnight the Asian markets rose 1.1%. Europe opened higher but finished mixed. US index futures were higher overnight, and at 8:15 the ADP was reported higher: 281k v 179k. The market opened unchanged at SPX 1973, then began to rise. At 10am Factory orders were reported lower: -0.5% v +0.7%. At 11am FED chair Yellen gave here speech: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/yellen20140702a.htm, and the SPX hit 1977. A pullback followed until 3pm when the SPX hit 1973 again. Then the market bounced into a SPX 1975 close.
For the day the SPX/DOW +0.10%, and the NDX/NAZ were mixed. Bonds lost 15 ticks, Crude slid $1.20, Gold ended flat, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 1973 and 1956 pivots, with resistance at the 2019 and 2070 pivots. Tomorrow: monthly Payrolls (est. +220k), weekly Jobless claims and the Trade deficit at 8:30. Then ISM services at 10am. Friday is the Independence day holiday!
The market opened flat today, bounced to SPX 1977, then went into a trading range between 1973 and 1977 for the rest of the day. During the entire rise from SPX 1945 to 1979 we had two six point pullbacks. And, we are currently sitting on another 6 point pullback: 1979-1973. Normally, these types of pullbacks are too small to be significant. Until we get a more significant pullback it is hard to count the internals of this advance. For now the minimum for a fifth wave is in place: the market has made new highs, Minor 5 is currently about half of Minor 1, the 1973 pivot range is offering resistance, and there are negative divergences on several timeframes.
Short term support is at the 1973 and 1956 pivots, with resistance at SPX 1989 and the 2019 pivot. Short term momentum dropped to neutral during this small pullback. The short term OEW charts remain positive with the reversal level now SPX 1972. Best to your Payrolls day trading!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend
LONG TERM: bull market