tuesday update

SHORT TERM: gap up and go, DOW +129

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.5%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.8%. US index futures were higher overnight, and the market gapped up at the open to SPX 1966. It had closed at SPX 1960 yesterday. As the market continued to rise Construction spending was reported higher: +0.2% v +0.1%, Auto sales were reported mixed, and ISM manufacturing was reported lower: 54.3 v 54.4 all around 10am. The market made new all time highs right around 10am, and continued to rally until hitting SPX 1979 at 1:30. Then t pulled back to close at SPX 1973.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.70%, and the NDX/NAZ were +1.15%. Bonds lost 11 ticks, Crude added 5 cents, Gold dipped $3, and the USD was higher. Medium term support rises to the 1973 and 1956 pivots, with resistance at the 2019 and 2070 pivots. Tomorrow: the ADP at 8:15, Factory orders at 10am, and a speech from FED chair Yellen at 11am.

The market gapped up at the open today. When the SPX hit 1968, around 10am, we upgraded the charts to display the Minor 4 low at SPX 1945. Surprisingly short, (1968-1945), after a 117 point Minor 3. But fourth waves have at times, during this bull market, been short. We are counting Minor 5 underway from that low. We also calculated three overhead resistance areas ahead: 1. the 1973 pivot range (1966-1980), 2. SPX 1989 (M5 = 0.618 M1), and 3. the 2019 pivot range (2012-2026) M5 = M1 and 0.618 M3. Until we get a significant pullback, around 10 points, any one of these three areas could end this uptrend.

Short term support is at is at the 1973 and 1956 pivots, with resistance at SPX 1989 and the 2019 pivot. Short term momentum hit extremely overbought then declined. The short term OEW charts remain positive with the reversal level now SPX 1969. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

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88 Responses to tuesday update

  1. pooch77 says:

    Gonna be interesting reading Rad’s report on IWM think we bottom around 118.25 than new highs

  2. ariez5 says:

    Not sure what a “gusher” means. You think crude is about to fall or about to jump higher?

  3. Lee X says:

    Close $55 😉 I’m fearful of peace breaking out before the big war/Armageddon/hyperinflation/zero hedge host’s CNBC fast money

  4. Lee X says:

    Eyyyyyyy hola Apaches
    Enjoy the fireworks !

  5. gary61b says:

    TF looks to be ready to fall to 1190

  6. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony
    SPY/SPX ~ The Daily upper (flat) BB has contained this rally. -/Div’s everywhere. Seems like a stretch for a possible HH SPX @ 1980/83.
    GL & Happy Fourth of July to all at the OEW.

  7. Kevin M says:

    All of you regulars are way too early for the end of Minor 5. Minor 2 and 4 were short and shallow, while minor 1 and 3 were long and strong. What makes you think 5 won’t be a long in the tooth move like the previous 1 and 3 uptrends? This is a massive bull market, so as such, the uptrends won’t just end like this. At least 5 will be just like 1 in price. That would get the SPX to 2000+/-Perfect number to get to. In fact, it’s most likely a magnet at this point in time. Again seasonality is bullish until the last 2 weeks of July.

    Wow I’m sounding like a perma-bull…….. o well


  8. 1978 is top. Ed coming no prisoners many will cry foul even though they had every chance to get out. Next stop swift move to mid 1800s before final move to 1700.

    • cmucha68 says:

      Your words in God’s ears. This market really needs a hammer and not to soft.

    • cmucha68 says:

      If SPX pulls back either 1967, 1962 or low1956. But I would much prefer straight down to 1929 the so often promoted level here.

      • Fraudstreet just needs a catalyst, they need to push blame on a foreign country or entity so when this whole Ponzi scheme falls apart the blame will be geared towards someone else and not towards the people who really got us into this mess.

    • LOL your the best imanewbie. the market does not care about the economy , does not care about global tension and civil wars, does not care about high gas prices, does not care about neg gdp. but it cares about a wave count? Come on will ya please

  9. lunker1 says:

    60min RSI5 has cooled off from 93 to 57 and is set up for a higher high with -D

  10. ariez5 says:

    NYAD relative to NYA no es bueno.

  11. CygnetNoir says:

    Buying some SPY puts here for July & August OPEX. You know these things expire worthless when wrong 🙂

  12. Covered at 1974.1, think markets are going to about 1984-92 on SPX.

  13. If Minor 5 topped out yesterday we have different options for Int. wave 4 targets.

    Looking at Fibonacci levels, wave 4 usually retraces back to 23.6% and to 38.2% of wave 3. Most of the time, this will be in the price area of sub-wave 4 of impulse wave 3.

    That would be around 1929 pivot , correct Tony ?

  14. My assumed ongoing Minor 5 count is as follows:
    Micro 1 = 1957.51
    Micro 2 = 1952.18
    Micro 3 = 1978.58
    Micro 4 = underway and likely to take it’s sweet time to complete just a few minutes prior to Yellen’s speech so Yellen can pull trigger on Micro 5 rally…..can it really be that simple

  15. rc1269 says:

    VIX showing a little IHS perhaps. similar to pattern in mid Aug ’13. higher low in VIX accompanying higher high in SPX. fwiw

  16. Yellen speaking today, 17k S&P 2000 a lock.

  17. [Free Forecasts] Pre-market elliott wave analysis: AAPL PCLN FB GOOG TSLA http://wavegenius.com/recent-posts

  18. mini mkt. update for tuesday, 2014/07/01, and plan for wednesday (within blog’s comments sect.): https://standardpoor.wordpress.com

  19. perceval7 says:

    I was wondering if anyone has a minute wave count for minor 5 worked up??? Many thanks for sharing! Happy 4th of July to everyone!

    • cicelyalaska says:

      Some friendly constructive criticism, your website and video’s used to work great. It’s simply not functional now with a simple click to your links.

  20. ariez5 says:

    How do you count the waves from 1945? Thanks.

  21. If U.S.A. wins tonight, then we will rally tomorrow, but if we lose will we sell off or stall?

  22. The only way you get a correction is if Janet Yellen comes out and tells the truth about main st.

    • The fall of the dollar/market will be blamed on an outside source: war, terrorism, etc.

    • I’m surprised there is no contrain opinion. Bears have all given up and Everyone is on the bull train that we will make,new highs have a little pool back make more new highs then drop 15 percent. Doesn’t make sense that everyone shorts when the fed is done tapering in September and we head to sp1600-1700. To easy. In my opinion we will see sp lower then 1700 in the next 100 days, how it gets ther I have no idea.

      Best of luck to all and enjoy the 4th

    • Or decides to blow her brains out

  23. bouraq says:

    Was there a FED meeting today?

    • torehund says:

      <thanks Bouraq, wti looks like a bullflag.

    • blackjak100 says:

      Sure looks like a bull flag, but it’s hesitating big time and warrants caution. With everyone and their brother long due to Iraq, this is not good for a big advance. It does look extremely corrective from the $107ish high, but $104.51 is the line in the sand for me which has nearly been hit twice.

  24. attitude928 says:

    Is the int count the same for the $RUT?

  25. Jordi Güell says:

    Tony, after this uptrend, How deep is the expected correction for Primary IV? a 10%, 15% o more? Thanks in advance

  26. tony caldaro says:

    Depends what happens on the next rally
    If the rally fails that could the first signal that a top is in

  27. soulsurfer says:

    thanks tony. I’ll root for 1989. But, now I’ll first root for the USofA who’s up against my old neighbor Belgium in the soccer world cup.

  28. SuperWorm says:

    Tks for your anticipating in the market. I have a question, 10 points pullback. Do you mean if we see the pullback more than 10 points indicating minor 5 is in?

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