SHORT TERM: end of month – end of quarter, DOW -25
Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.5%. Europe opened higher but lost 0.1%. US index futures were relatively flat overnight, and the market opened one point below Friday’s SPX 1961 close. In the first few minutes the market dipped to SPX 1958. At 9:45 the Chicago PMI was reported lower: 62.6 v 65.5, then at 10am Pending home sales were reported higher: +6.1% v +0.4%. The market then rallied to 1964 by 10:30. After a pullback to SPX 1959 by 11am, the market moved higher again. At 2:30 the SPX hit 1964 again, pulled back to 1958 again by 3:30, then end the day at 1960.
For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.10%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.20%. Bonds gained 2 ticks, Crude slipped 35 cents, Gold rallied $12, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 1956 and 1929 pivots, with resistance at the 1973 and 2019 pivots. Tomorrow: Construction spending, ISM manufacturing and Auto sales all around 10am.
The market opened lower today, touched SPX 1958, rallied to 1964, then went into a trading range between those levels for the rest of the day. Meanwhile, the NAZ continues to rise, nearly reaching our uptrend target of 1420. Today the SPX was only 4 points shy of its 1968 high, but the DOW is a good 100+ points below its bull market high. The recent SPX pullback was shorter than expected, met some technical parameters, but only retraced about 23.6% of the Minor wave 3 advance. The NAZ pulled back, met one technical parameter, but it was only around 16% in percentage terms. Nevertheless, we opted to take a cautionary count on the NAZ, and labeled it in Minor wave 5. With the SPX, the recent low could have been either Minor wave 4 or Minute a of 4. Should the SPX make new highs we will label the recent 1945 low as Minor 4.
Short term support is at the 1956 and 1929 pivots, with resistance at the 1973 and 2019 pivots. Short term momentum stayed overbought today, then dropped near neutral. The short term OEW charts are still positive with the reversal level now SPX 1960. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend
LONG TERM: bull market