monday update

SHORT TERM: end of month – end of quarter, DOW -25

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.5%. Europe opened higher but lost 0.1%. US index futures were relatively flat overnight, and the market opened one point below Friday’s SPX 1961 close. In the first few minutes the market dipped to SPX 1958. At 9:45 the Chicago PMI was reported lower: 62.6 v 65.5, then at 10am Pending home sales were reported higher: +6.1% v +0.4%. The market then rallied to 1964 by 10:30. After a pullback to SPX 1959 by 11am, the market moved higher again. At 2:30 the SPX hit 1964 again, pulled back to 1958 again by 3:30, then end the day at 1960.

For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.10%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.20%. Bonds gained 2 ticks, Crude slipped 35 cents, Gold rallied $12, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 1956 and 1929 pivots, with resistance at the 1973 and 2019 pivots. Tomorrow: Construction spending, ISM manufacturing and Auto sales all around 10am.

The market opened lower today, touched SPX 1958, rallied to 1964, then went into a trading range between those levels for the rest of the day. Meanwhile, the NAZ continues to rise, nearly reaching our uptrend target of 1420. Today the SPX was only 4 points shy of its 1968 high, but the DOW is a good 100+ points below its bull market high. The recent SPX pullback was shorter than expected, met some technical parameters, but only retraced about 23.6% of the Minor wave 3 advance. The NAZ pulled back, met one technical parameter, but it was only around 16% in percentage terms. Nevertheless, we opted to take a cautionary count on the NAZ, and labeled it in Minor wave 5. With the SPX, the recent low could have been either Minor wave 4 or Minute a of 4. Should the SPX make new highs we will label the recent 1945 low as Minor 4.

Short term support is at the 1956 and 1929 pivots, with resistance at the 1973 and 2019 pivots. Short term momentum stayed overbought today, then dropped near neutral. The short term OEW charts are still positive with the reversal level now SPX 1960. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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140 Responses to monday update

  1. torehund says:

    Watch out for the uranium miners, bull.

  2. Stock markets say we are going to lose today in Futbol!?

  3. lunker1 says:

    SPX from 1945 has 5 waves up but wave 3 is the shortest. but there’s no 4 into 1 overlap so it’s tempting to say the 5 waves could be complete at 1979 but breaking the EW rule…

    so is it nested 1, 2’s and now in 3?
    is 3 complete at 1979 or is this 4 of 3?

    minor 1 was 71
    5 = .5×1 = 1981
    5 = .62×1 = 1989
    5 = 1 = 2016

    • soulsurfer says:

      most likely now in micro 4 of minute iii of minor 5, IMHO. 1981 looks like a decent good target for minor 5 (upper end of 1973 OEW pivot, and right at daily R2).

      • lunker1 says:

        it’s just that seems so short since already hit 1979. what if today was the E wave overshoot of an ED?

        A 1956
        B 1926
        C 1968
        D 1945
        E 1979
        target .768 = 1937

      • soulsurfer says:

        L1, E for an ED seems IMHO kinda construed. Remember what Tony mentioned this morning “Fifth waves can stop at any time over higher highs.
        1973 pivot currently resistance.”

        Given how he’s been nailing this market of late (and for a very long time in fact!) I’ll stick with that. Been taking profits left and right 🙂

      • lunker1 says:

        not that different than this.

        • soulsurfer says:

          oh i see what you mean. sorry, i thought you were counting way different. my bad. hence, e-wave possible. EDs always end abruptly and are best counted as abcde’s indeed.

      • tony caldaro says:

        DOW 12,000 seems like only yesterday

  4. A to 1840 B to 1900 C to 1700

  5. Anonymous says:

    will this market ever dip? -2.9 GDP can’t take it down! weak house start either /crude oil over 106$ not a big deal either you know what will make a stop to this madness? I tell you right now when earnings start rolling in weaker than expected only then we see red…temporary I guess since Yellen printer will always be there….capitalisocialism (new system we now have which mix capitalism and socialism 🙂

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