weekend update


The general market made a new bull market high on Tuesday at SPX 1968, dropped to 1945 by Thursday, and then rallied to 1961 to end the week. For the week the SPX/DOW were -0.35%, the NDX/NAZ were +0.90%, and the DJ World index was -0.25%. Economic reports for the week were slightly positive. On the uptick: existing/new home sales, personal income/spending, consumer confidence/sentiment and PCE prices. On the downtick: Q1 GDP, Case-Shiller, durable goods orders, the LEI and the monetary base. Next week we get reports on Nonfarm payrolls, ISM and the Chicago PMI.


This week Q1 GDP 2014 was reported lower than the previous quarter for the first time since Q2 2009. The end of the great recession. While the stock market took this information in stride, blaming the decline on the weather, we are starting to get concerned about market valuations. The best day-to-day measure of the total equity market capitalization in the US, is the Wilshire 5000.


On Tuesday, the day before the GDP report, the Wilshire 5000 hit $20.909tn. With GDP currently at $17.016tn, this represents a 23% premium over the total economy in the US. Of course, lots of US companies do lots of business overseas. Since the mid-1980’s, however, a total market cap with this kind of premium over the GDP has only been reached twice: 1998 and 2000. Notice the 2007 high, which was also an all time high, was only a 9% premium over the GDP. And prior to 1997, bull markets topped before even reaching a premium. The stock market certainly looks a bit frothy at current levels.

LONG TERM: bull market

The bull market hit a new high this week. At the high it was +6.5% for the year with nearly six months completed. Last year the market gained 29.6% for the entire year. This market does appear to be struggling at these lofty valuations.

We continue to count this bull market as Cycle wave [1] consisting of five Primary waves. Primary waves I and II completed in 2011 and Primary wave III has been underway since then. When it concludes, which could occur in the next few months, the market could experience its largest drop since the 22% decline during Primary II in 2011.


Currently Primary III is in its fifth wave, Major wave 5, from the October 2011 low. Major waves 1 and 2 completed in late-2011, and Major waves 3 and 4 completed in early-2014. Major wave 5, however, is subdividing into five Intermediate waves. Intermediate waves i and ii completed in April, and Intermediate iii has been underway since that low. When this Int. iii uptrend ends we should see a small correction for Int. iv. Then another uptrend to new highs to end Major 5 and Primary III. We have been expecting a June high, July low, August high. But the current uptrend may stretch into July.

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

The current uptrend, Intermediate wave iii, has been rising since mid-April at SPX 1814. We have been counting it as five Minor waves with a subdividing Minor wave 3. Minor waves 1 and 2 ended at SPX 1885 and 1851 respectively, and Minor wave 3 ended just this week at 1968. Minor wave 3 was approximately 1.618 times Minor wave 1. We are currently expecting Minor wave 4 to unfold, before Minor wave 5 takes the market to new highs and completes the uptrend.


This week we had a decline from SPX 1968: 1947-1961-1945. Originally we labeled this as Minute waves ‘a’ and ‘b’ expecting Minute ‘c’ to follow. The market, however, rallied back to SPX 1961 on Friday and closed there. This suggest this three wave decline was only Minute ‘a’ of an expected Minute a-b-c Minor wave 4. The current rally is probably Minute ‘b’. When it concludes, momentum ended the week overbought, Minute ‘c’ should follow. We have been expecting the market will find Minor 4 support around the OEW 1929 pivot. Medium term support is at the 1956 and 1929 pivots, with resistance at the 1973 and 2019 pivots.


Short term support is at the 1956 and 1929 pivots, with resistance at the 1973 and 2019 pivots. Short term momentum ended the week overbought. The short term OEW charts are positive with the reversal level now SPX 1956.


The hourly chart displays the entire movement of all the waves within this uptrend to date. Notice many of the pullbacks were quite short in time and similar in price. The pullbacks have generally taken 2 to 4 days, ranging between 31 and 40 points. Thus far, the current pullback has only has a 2 day (Tues.-Thurs.) 23 point decline. After a two month Minor wave 3 advance this appears to be too short, and small, for a Minor wave 4. The NDX made a new high on Friday, while the NAZ came within one point of its high. When they rollover the SPX/DOW will probably finish Minor wave 4.


The Asian markets were mixed on the week gaining 0.1%.

The European markets were all lower losing 2.6%.

The Commodity equity group were mixed and lost 0.7%.

The DJ World index is still uptrending but lost 0.3%.


Bonds remain in a downtrend but gained 0.6%.

Crude is still uptrending but lost 0.8%.

Gold remains in an uptrend and gained 0.1%.

The USD appears to be downtrending and lost 0.4%.


Monday: Chicago PMI at 9:45 and Pending home sales at 10am. Tuesday: Construction spending, ISM manufacturing and Auto sales. Wednesday: the ADP index and Factory orders. Thursday: Monthly payrolls (est. +220k), weekly Jobless claims, the Trade deficit and ISM services. Friday: Independence day holiday. On Wednesday FED chair Yellen gives a speech at the IMF on Financial Stability. Best to your weekend and week!

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

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128 Responses to weekend update

  1. Pingback: Are Stock valutions excessive – in relation to the Underlying US Economy? | GoldEdge

  2. gary61b says:

    1965 would be good place to end this possible b wave, rut is looking very bullish.

  3. almost 330 pm. get ready for centrally planned ramp of the market to close the dow green

  4. uncle10 says:

    Tony, I’m not sure if the dollar is ever going to get out of this incredibly tight range it has been in for so long? Do you think it will? if so which way? Thanks!

  5. uncle10 says:

    Nice work Tony. Thanks.
    Nothing to see in the grains and beans market! wowza.

  6. jeffbalin says:

    I am just not sure minor 3 was done, I’m thinking we might be in wave 3 of minute 5 inside minor 3

  7. lunker1 says:

    update on the fork charts I posted on Friday’s update. NAZ and Q’s broke out and then backtested the breakout (like they should), but all the other indices and been held within the forks per plan. perhaps NAZ is making an expanded or running flat or is on a different count but for all the other the minor 4 B wave seems to be done. a break above today’s high and then backtesting the breakout would be bullish.

  8. Jordi Güell says:

    Tony, I’m confused with the Nasdaq. Right now, is the Nasdaq in his micro wave 5? thanks for your updates. You are a very kind persona.

  9. I am sure the FED wants DOW 17k before the long weekend this way people can sit around complain about business and how they are not making money but the market goes up everyday. Cheers all enjoy the weekend ,

  10. Ryan Parker says:

    I guess the BIS was listening on Saturday when I said that the only time I have seen a larger disconnect relative to today between the equity market and the economy was 1999-2000. Of course Tony alluded to this in the WE update with the market cap of the Wilshire 5000 relative to GDP.

  11. manunidhi21 says:

    Namaste Tony!

    S&P still holding and ISIL has declared “Caliphate”

  12. http://wavegenius.com/recent-posts
    Pre-Market Elliott Wave Forecasts for these 12: S&P

  13. H D says:

    Nice work my friend! EW and funnymentals, Quality WE update, as always. Anticipating minute c. 1952-1956 ES good RR entry IMHO

  14. Interesting here on COMPQ. Back in mid-April, I posted the chart below with a projected target for this index. Guess what — target is almost met.


  15. Exiting news for BULLS

    According to FOMC Internal documents, MARKETS are NOT expensive/overheated/excessively speculated IF leverage has not EXCEEDED certain thresholds.

    Now, if I take that leverage THRESHOLD, then SPX goes to 2700, then only FOMC will consider market overheated. It is not P/E, earnings etc…as per FOMC internal document….I did not expect ademic intellectual bankruptcy at FOMC. All jokers in FOMC.

  16. Totally awesome weekend update, Tony! I was on vacation this week and your weekend update is the first and only reading for me now before getting back to work tomorrow. 🙂 Hope you and all had a great weekend! Good luck this week all!

    -OEW Coffee Club Member

  17. Anonymous says:

    For how long we will keep trending up?

    • torehund says:

      according to M.Amstrong, Legarde at the IMF is threatening the pension funds and holders of government bonds. He also states that these News are hidden in media or overshadowed by the World cup. At any rate you may then posibly see a shift of money from bonds into Equities. Searching for the less bad option.

  18. Joel Wenger says:

    Reblogged this on The Safe Investing Blog and commented:
    Market Outlook for the Week of June 30th = Uptrends Intact, ups and downs continue

    Short-term (20 DMA):
    The indexes closed above their 20-day moving averages again, although the DJIA dipped below during the week. Per IBD, we’re still in a confirmed uptrend. Volatility (in the form of day-to-day swings) continued, but is still historically low.

    Intermediate (50 DMA):
    Market averages remain above their 50-day moving averages, and Elliott wave continues to indicate an uptrend.

    Long-term (200 DMA):
    Market averages are far extended from their 200 day moving averages, and the long term Elliot Wave uptrend remains intact.

    Elliott Wave Analysis from Elliott Wave Update by Tony Caldaro

  19. Libor Val says:

    Hi Tony, maybe minor 4 is in – minor 3 -117 pts, minor 4 – 25 it is about 23% so it could be enough?

    • blackjak100 says:

      It would have the right look with a low at least in the 1930’s to stay in proportion with Minor 2 which was 35 pts and lasted about 4 days. Holiday shortened weeks tend to be bullish, but what weeks are not bullish anymore?? Every week is bullish nowadays! I’m ruling out an irregular flat for Minor 4 since the thrust down to 1945 is clearly a 5 and not a 3. In other words, trade above 1968 indicates Minor 4 is over at 23 pts and 2 days.

      Don’t be shocked if the ‘B’ wave reaches 1965 so a=c from 1952 on Monday. It may catch some people off guard reversing there. The thrust at the end of the day Friday looks like a nano/micro/pico 3rd wave and still need 4th and 5th to complete Mon AM.


    • Definitely turning point week, 21 trading weeks from turning point week. Prices are trading outside long term 2009 to 2014 price channel. Which implies, extension per Elliott Wave theory. I have no positions, most likely, will play the short side with few large cap stocks, swing trade set ups.

  20. opader says:

    Thx Tony .. I believe SPX in Minor 5 now and on its way to set new highs this coming week. This is based on channel and new highs / new lows analyses. The trading days that has constructed Minor 4 so far have been remarkably strong (by internal measures) and dips were bought aggressively. http://balancetrading.blogspot.com/

    • blackjak100 says:

      What internal measures are you talking about? The NYMO is barely above the 0 line and hasn’t been above 40 since March. The daily MACD is showing the biggest divergence in the last 2 years. Yes the dips were bought aggressively but not by internal measures.

      • opader says:

        New Highs significantly increased for 3000 most liquid stocks over $5 while new lows decreased on Tue, Wed, Thr and Fri. Additionally, advancing issues lead declining issues for both NAZ and NYSE on Tue, Wed, Thr and specially Fri. Dips were also aggressively bought on those three days.

        On Friday, SPX punched through its Primary Downtrend Line and closed above it. With end of the month “window dressing” coming up, there is an excellent chance we see new highs for SPX and NDX, albeit all on a very low volume. A new ATH for SPX clearly puts us on Minor 5, at least that is my understanding of EW.

      • Opader: You make some good points but what $SPX primary downtrend line are you talking about? I don’t see any on the chart of the $SPX.

        • opader says:

          That’s the line connecting the high of 6/24 (ATH) to the high of 6/26 and extend right. By definition that is SPX’s new Primary Downtrend Line. We are trading above it which is bullish.

          I will post a chart on my FB page in a few and you can see it there. Look for VSG Opader on FB. All my stuff is public.

    • Thanks Opader. I am not a FB member so I cannot access even your public charts.

  21. soulsurfer says:

    thanks for the update tony and for all of those providing valuable comments. what a great “cherry on the pie” your WLSH vs GDP valuation comparison is. What a great way to look at market (over) valuation. It’s this why your blog is invaluable.

    Count wise, etc I’ve got nothing to add but to refer back to my road map from 2 weeks ago which has been tracking nicely. Back then, I realize now I suggested minor 4 could become an irregular flat. Maybe I got it right!? 🙂


    I can’t get the Primary III=1000 points (SPX 2075) and 3 years after Primary I top symmetry. (Could it be that easy!?)

    • budfox9450 says:

      Ref. You comment on P3 at SP 2075. Using,
      a Monthly SP cash price chart, (1) draw trendline
      off the 10/30/98 low, up thru the 4/30/01 low.
      Extend it, up and across the top of the 10/31/07 high.
      Next, create a lower trendline up, off the 6/29/12 low,
      and the 11/30/12 low. By extending the upper channel
      line, and then extending, the lower channel line – you
      get approx 5/30/2016 for the 2076+ Bull Market high.

  22. cmucha68 says:

    Tony you mentioned minor 3 ended the past week at 1968 and minor 4 and wave B are currently underway. What if the market moves back to 1968 and possibly beyond to 1970 what happens then with the minor 3 count. Will it end only then ? What implies then we are still in minor 3 up and minor 4 should follow afterwards. Thanks for your opinion !

    What do the other folks think of that possibility that the market may advance up ? On the other hand when looking at Dubai crash last week and the current Nikkei decline it is quite possible that US markets may follow next week down too. Who knows.

    • perceval7 says:

      cmucha68 – with a break of 1968 Resistance, possibilities include –
      – continued high b of minor 4 wave, b can go higher than previous high…
      – minor 4 finished at 1945, headed up in minor 5 already…
      Pay attention to NAZ and NDX for a rollover in addition to the 1968 R. We need some help from the them to get the minute c of minor 4 underway.

      • cmucha68 says:

        Thank you. Although the market had several opportunities to break down and is moving up again, as an intuitive trader I have a strange feeling about this area. Of course there can be a grinding higher again or perhaps a quick jump up but with all the geopolitical circumstances in the background I think there cab be a catalyst coming from. I would guess that market could make a larger correction now after testing the highs and then heads up back to new highs later in August until the fall. I suspect also that all the tensions in the world are currently overshadowed by the soccer World Cup. At least one thing that unites the world for a moment: sport. But when that is over there is no distraction and entertainment anymore. Reality will bite again. So let’s see. But for a good trader it shouldn’t matter which way the market goes if at least he or she is on the right side. As the famous speculator Jesse Livermore often said :” there is no good side or bad side of the market but only the right side” !

    • tony caldaro says:

      If we make new highs, would consider 1945 the Minor 4 low

    • cmucha68 says:

      The lines and pattern in that chart look quite strange and confusing. I would not use that as a basis fir a decision. Rather sticking with Tony’s charts and counts. Clear and simple although the counts are not always precise ( like 1929 projection) but in general a good work.

    • Fiona, the Fat Pitch blog is good stuff. Thanks for sharing each week.

    • Michael Cook says:

      Thanks Tony for your generous, entertaining and prescient commentary as always. Much appreciated.
      A possible corollary to the current major 4 wave action can be found on the daily chart (above) in the late Oct – early Nov 13 time frame. Back then, the major 4 action lasted 7 total trading days with the first six languishing around near the major 3 highs before a culmination sell off on day 7. Even the rsi appears to be behaving similarly. Just an observation hopefully worth sharing.

    • Michael Cook says:

      Yes, minor 4. My bad. 🙂

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  24. Ryan Parker says:

    Thanks for the update Tony. Always enjoy your thoughts. One of the few true good souls I have met in this business. Luckily it seems like we have quite a few of them on this forum. If not for Tony I wouldn’t be constantly laughing at Lee’s sarcastic commentary or RC’s mother in law indicator (which must be off the charts right now), etc. Jedi, Soul, JK, Bouraq, and others are consistently contributing. Apologize if I left anyone’s name out. I always try to contribute when I can but anytime I try to be logical with the economy relative to the market over the past 2-3 years the bigger my headache gets. Just follow the charts. Aside from the tech bubble in 1999-2000 I have never seen such a huge discrepancy between where the stock market was relative to the actual economy as I see right now.

  25. Ryan Parker says:

    Tony has already been on this but here is another graphic from Tom McClellan showing that QE is the #1 force driving the market now and has been since the 2009 low. The question is what happens when the market begins to anticipate full QE withdrawal by the Fed and when exactly that will occur.

    • tony caldaro says:

      We have our QE analysis on the backburner =)

    • cmucha68 says:

      I have been following Tom McClellan for a while and must say his forecasts are among the worst I have seen. Very bad timing. Either totally wrong or lagging. Not worth to pay attention at all. Makes you only loose money. My opinion.

  26. ariez5 says:

    Thanks for sharing your wealth of knowledge so generously once again. I hope to be a student of OEW shortly. Indulge this post, and I will hereafter abstain from the group effort to turn your blog into a discussion of climate change. I am just weary of the climate-change-is-all-a-liberal-conspiracy back-slapping I read here. I also did not miss the fact that several months ago you responded to one of your commentators that, indeed, glaciers were melting fast.

    Soul, thanks for your comments and links. I also always appreciate the respectful tone of your posts. I had a lot of thoughts. In deference to Tony, I will just mention a few.
    1. “Consensus is something political, not scientific. There is never consensus in science.” Who still believes that the Earth is flat? Is “The Earth is round” also a liberal conspiracy?
    2. The “97 % consensus” is not based on one paper. Bray and Storch (2008), Doran and Zimmerman (2009) and Farnsworth and Lichter (2011) all found almost unanimity among earth scientists that global temperatures have risen over the past century and upwards of 80% agreement that there were anthropogenic causes.
    3. You write that “there’s been no global warming over the past 17yrs and 9 months and counting.”
    NOAA has a website addressing this question in particular.
    See also Kosaka and Xie, “Recent Global Warming Hiatus Tied to Equatorial Pacific Surface Cooling,” Nature 501 (403-407) Sept. 19, 2013.
    In short “a series of La Niña events and a negative phase of the lesser-known Pacific Decadal Oscillation” seems to explain a lot of the recent change in the patterns. And “despite the halt in acceleration, each of the last three decades has been successively warmer at the Earth’s surface than any preceding decade since 1850.”
    4. The slight net increase in the Antarctic Sea Ice (as opposed to the record lows in Arctic sea extent) is attributable to the strengthening of the Antarctic Oscillation (the north-south position of the westerly wind belt encircling Antarctica). This strengthening pushes winds further south to higher latitudes, where they reach more sea ice, pushing more of it northwards, increasing the sea ice duration in the Ross Sea while decreasing it in the Bellingshausen Sea. Moreover, this strengthening is directly linked to ozone depletion and greenhouse gases, which have caused the Westerly winds to intensify and migrate south towards Antarctica. There is too much research to mention, but see
    Abram et. al, “Evolution of the Southern Annular Mode During the Past Millenium,” Nature Climate Change 4 (2014), 564-569.
    Holand and Kwok, “Wind-driven Trends in Antarctic Sea-Ice Drift,” Nature Geoscience 5 (2012), 872-875.

    Your arguments remind me of those who cried “bear market!” at each correction over the last 5 years. Trends can be trends in spite of minor fluctuations. Humans can be a major cause of the observable changes in CO2 levels and temperatures without being the sole factor at work.
    The climate is complicated. No climate scientist claims to have all the answers. But what I most disagree with is your statement that “until the data does show that any of these modeled predictions are indeed correct we have to therefore conclude that the global climate models are indeed wrong.” No, we don’t. They could be right, but incomplete, like all models.
    When the dangers of failing to act until we have 100% certainty that we are causing climate change are enormous, while the benefits of drastically reducing our fossil fuel usage – irrespective of climate change – are also enormous, I have little tolerance for complacency or conspiracy theories.

    • chrisk44342 says:

      You are entitled to your opinions. We all have them. Just not interested in reading about them here. Maybe start a climate change blog?

      • torehund says:

        Chrisk, climate can (in a powerful way) drive consumer demand, and a coldspell of 20 year duration ( a wave D down, after an ABC up for the last last 100 years) will make Chinas energy consumption go “Wild”.
        Politics, science, group behaviour/ finding a turn in paradigms, and social trends all have Components that are interconnected and vital for a stock-trader.
        Just look at coal, its politically hated, scientists dislike it, and its climate dependent. When looking for a bottom, sentiment towards it may help as a guide, together With Technicals and EW analysis.

      • cmucha68 says:

        I agree with chrisk44342. Although a serious theme, here is not the right place for a climate debate. We are Traders and our goal and passion is to conquer the markets as good as possible and to make a living from it. If a Trader is not attentive the market can burn him instantly and faster than any sun under the sky. There lies the problem. But
        of course, any comment with regard to future market movements is always welcome.

      • chrisk44342 says:


        Appreciate your point of view and I hear ya. I acknowledge my lack of interest in fundamentals, but I can see why others would. The problem is that some of this stuff winds up becoming a rant, and that I don’t want to read. But it’s Tony’s blog- it’s not my place to say.

    • The London Telegraph
      The Scandal Of Fiddled Global Warming Data:
      The US has actually been cooling since the Thirties, the hottest decade on record

    • soulsurfer says:

      ariez, this is not the place nor time to discuss climate change and i will therefore not answer your comments since i would fill 10 pages for starters. you can contact me directly if you please to continue to discuss: soulsurferusa@yahoo.com. i also respectfully disregard your referencing/accusing me to complacency and conspiracy. however, none of your replies has refuted any of the facts i’ve shown and you did not provide any arguments that the models are right and not over predicting.

      i will leave it at that since, again this is not the place for arguing and discussing the causes of climate change.

  27. When GAAP was supplanted by EDITBA, corporate accounting became as corrupted as government accounting. Thanks to incredibly creative bookkeeping, the most relevant fundamental valuation model is now P/F: Price to Fantasy.

    Technical analysis über alles. I like Maestro’s count, fundamentals be damned.

  28. Reblogged this on thedarklordblog and commented:
    By far the most accurate EW forecaster I’ve come across…keep up the good work Tony.

  29. manunidhi21 says:

    Namaste Tony !

    On WLSH premium will be more when they update Q1 GDP was lower.

  30. bob623 says:

    Thanks, Tony, for the daily and extensive weekly updates. They have kept up on the right side of the market and I appreciate you dedicated efforts.

  31. mjtplayer says:

    Thank you Tony and great comments on the market valuation using the Wilshire.

    – OEW Coffee Club 🙂

    • I’m lucky there are 8 Long Johns Silver locations in Las Vegas!

    • Kevin M says:

      Yikes Amos, free food is usually a bad sign, that they are trying to give it away for some reason. On top of that it’s seafood!……I hope you make it out of there alive! I for one will never, ever, never, ever again eat seafood that hasn’t been caught that day, or a restaurant that isn’t a few blocks away from the ocean. The stomach pain and other details were enough to scare me straight.

      Good luck

    • torehund says:

      Free food and Free shipping, both too good to be true 🙂

  32. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony
    Your hourly chart needs an update.
    Have a nice weekend.

  33. 16golfer says:

    Thanks Tony for the update. Enjoy the great summer day.

  34. torehund says:

    Thnks Tony !
    Lets look a the grim valuations: Go Pro a small Limited consumer Electronic Device maker is valued at 3,6 billion whilst Rosetta genomics a firm that are in the process of revolutionize cancer Diagnostics is just 45 mill. I agree fully that some Companies may be extremely overvalued, like Rosetta genomics was at the IPO more than a decade ago at 700 usd per share, now just 4.
    I think its a stockpickers market….and what about the KOL etf, it has nowhere to go but up if there is to be any viable Companies left in the future. Bulkers in the same situation together With the miners.

    • tony caldaro says:

      ROSG has had two reverse splits: 1 for 4 and 1 for 15

      • torehund says:

        I know Tony, but they have a Medical revolution locked into in their patent base, and belong to a list of the 100 most valuable Companies in the world measuerd by their intellectual property and patents. Its my cheapest Stock vs future potential.

      • tony caldaro says:

        So why have they not benefitted from their patents?

      • torehund says:

        Its the aspect of time Tony, It takes a couple of years after Product launch to ceate sufficient buyer awareness, and when this is elicited to a higher degre the Company will launch another test in 2015, differentiating the extremely common thyroid nodule into cancerous and noncancerous. Nowadays 30 percent of all nodule biopcy specimens are ambivalent (a patologist is analyzing it subjectively through a microscope and cant decide if its malignant or not). Huge saving both for the patient (as less will have to be operated), the doctor will be able to give the patient a much more true diagnosis, and the hospital will avoid malpractice claims from operating a noncancerous nodule.
        IF the hospitals deicde not to use the test panel, once on the market, they will run the risk of being sued as lawyers can demand this test ot be taken retrospecitively in any malpractice claims.
        Given the increasing awareness and a plethora of New tests being developed rendering old Methods obsolete, Rosetta will increae their Revenue stream exponentially.

      • tony caldaro says:

        sounds like a Cycle 2 buy

  35. llerias7 says:

    Tony, looking at $ATG it seems that a minor wave 2 is complete at 50% retracement i.e. around 1200 pts. Do you agree or we might expect the bottom at next fibo suport around 1170?

    Thanks for your kindness.

  36. bouraq says:

    10 Weekend Charts:
    $spx $djia $rut $ftse $audusd $eurusd $gbpusd $wtic $cl_f $xauusd $gc_f $kc_f

    • mharrison60 says:

      Quite likely FTSE topped at 6894.88.

    • blackjak100 says:

      Thanks Bouraq! I agree with your analysis of gold and think it is consolidating in a ‘B’ wave (bull flag) that is close to completion. I would like to see $1305-$1310 hit on Monday to go long for a target of $1360ish. I’m looking for the ‘C’ wave to be about .618*A. It’s interesting to note sentiment has went from extremely bearish to extremely bullish in 3 weeks per the COT data. IMO, this will limit the upside as well and it’s not indicative of a new bull leg starting. In fact after $1360 is hit, many elliotticians think this will complete a big Primary wave 4 wave (triangle) and Primary wave 5 will target $1000ish. Looking at the weekly chart of gold, the top of the downward channel will sit around $1380 at the end of next week. Everything seems to be lining up for a big decline in gold to start in July which will take months to complete.

      • bouraq says:

        A lot of seasonal guys calling for a dip in June-July and till now they turned out right. If it stays within the red channel, I see very strong resistance at 1375-80 within the declining channel from 2011 top on log scale.

  37. matt marr says:

    Hi Tony,

    Long time lurker over 7 years.

    Just wanted to thank you for the wonderful work you do as well as the patience and tolerance you have. Thank you so much.

  38. Thanks Tony for the wonderful update once again.. One request from my side. Whenever time permits, request you to share your analysis on Indian market as well..

    • tony caldaro says:

      Have been wrong on this market for the past year.
      Euphoria has again out trumped analysis.
      However there is a pattern suggesting the last spike up was it.

  39. Thanks Tony on the wonderful update once again.. One request from my side. Whenever time permits, request you to share your analysis on Indian market as well..

  40. rolandu11 says:

    There was actually a setback, but especially in Europe. The techs have even closed on high Friday. At least my sentiment indicators are neutral or slightly positive again since Thursday. Perhaps in SPX another test of the green line will take place (Very long-term trend line)

Comments are closed.