friday update

SHORT TERM: rebound continues, DOW +6

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.4%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.1%. US index futures were lower overnight, and the market opened three points below yesterday’s SPX 1957 close. At 10am Consumer sentiment was reported higher: 82.5 v 81.3. The market hit SPX 1953 just past 10am, bounced to yesterday’s high at 1958 by 11am, then dipped to 1952 by 1:30. After that the market rallied into the close, and ended the week at SPX 1961.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.10%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.45%. Bonds gained 1 tick, Crude slipped 10 cents, Gold slipped $1, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 1956 and 1929 pivots, with resistance at the 1973 and 2019 pivots. Last night the FED reported a decrease in the Monetary base: $3.963tn v $4.007tn. Today the WLEI was reported lower again: 54.3 v 54.5.

The market opened lower today, rallied to yesterday’s SPX 1958 high, made a slightly lower low, then rallied to Wednesday’s SPX 1961 high. With the SPX reaching 1961 it appears yesterday’s second option, Minute B underway, was correct. Since the entire pullback from the recent SPX 1968 high was only 23 points to 1945, after a 117 point Minor wave 3. It would appear quite odd that SPX 1945 would have ended Minor 4. So we now have a Minute wave A (1947-1961-1945), followed by a Minute B to 1961, expecting Minute wave C next.

Short term support is at the 1956 and 1929 pivots, with resistance at the 1973 and 2019 pivots. Short term momentum ended the week overbought. The short term OEW charts flip-flopped again today, ending positive, with the reversal level SPX 1956. Best to your weekend!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

This entry was posted in Updates and tagged , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

33 Responses to friday update

  1. It was a good day for the $RUT (+.74%) and the A-D line (+1031) as the small cap stocks outperformed the large ones. I generally consider that a good omen for the market uptrend, but it certainly would be nice to see more strength from the DJIA.

  2. fionamargaret says:

    What elegantly-worded thoughtful replies to the Climate Change link I provided – well done.
    Soul, your amusing touch of irony in your conclusion did not escape me.

    Maybe on another slow day, we should discuss “not raising the minimum wage, but giving every household a minimum income (paying for it by the cutting back of social services, soup kitchens, etc.,that would no longer be needed to the same degree).
    Let everyone have some dignity.

    Have a great weekend Tony and all.

  3. cmucha68 says:

    If not rewarded

  4. cmucha68 says:

    Unambiguous call or not, what counts in the end for a Trader is how much money he made on his account. That’s the beauty of trading: you are immediatky rewarded for a righ t call. And I’d you are not rewarded your call was wrong. That’s simple.

    • torehund says:

      cmucha, most investors or speculators that are successful arent day traders but sit until a longer pattern unfolds. Such a strategy involves losses most of the time. The important skill is to wait patiently until the Stock runs out of sellers and then ride it for a considerable time upwards. From my own experience it was not the bottom Call that hindered profit but the lacking abiity to SIT. Thats the art. And we just have to identify, and try to improve Our weaknesses.

  5. “So we now have a Minute wave A (1947-1961-1945), followed by a Minute B to 1961, expecting Minute wave C next.”

    You are identifying 1961 as being the B wave high with the market closing at 1960.96? Not much room for error there. I admire the aggressive nature of such an unambiguous call. Good luck.

  6. fishonhook says:

    The last few days have reminded again how one should only use short term counts for trading at one’s peril

  7. cmucha68 says:

    I could imagine that Monday with new money coming into the month the Dow may go up to 1610 and S&P goes up to 1968-1970 (or if the market goes wild even to 1973) area as a last attempt and perhaps hang around at that level for a day or 2 and then we are done with the upside for a moment and the market rolls over to the down side. Good weekend !

  8. lunker1 says:

    forks say might see 1963 Monday then reverse. NAZ, IWM, MDY are ready to reverse too. The Dow forks gave an .887 sell from ATH on the 24th to first trigger the top.

  9. lunker1 says:

    Retraces from ATH
    INDU 50% almost to the penny
    IWM held at 78.6%
    MDY 78.6%
    NAZ Double Top

    SPY shows an expanded flat for minute B better than SPX does.

    1. SPX C=A=1938
    2. 1938 would give a good touch of the minor 1-3 -> projected parallel 2-4 support TL
    3. 1938 also gives an AB=CD
    AB 1956/1926
    CD 1968/1938

  10. blackjak100 says:

    Thanks TC!

    Anyone in the group notice the fractal in the NDX is almost identical to summer 2011? I’m not a fractal guy nor have I looked at it, but I read an article about the similarity. If it’s going to trigger to the downside, it would be by next Thursday.

    • blackjak100 says:

      He also noted the iwm fractal is identical to 2011 and if the fractal holds, the top would be in the 118.50 region which it was.

    • Are you implying that if we don’t go lower then 1945 then we are in an ending diagnal with a sp 500 target of 1973-2000 before a huge crash below 1600.

      • blackjak100 says:

        I’m not implying anything. My count for 4+ months has been an ED with invalidation at 1973.5ish. However, I’m starting to doubt this count and have no alternate at the moment. If it’s invalidated, I will reevaluate.

      • . Daneric has the ending diagnal topping in the next few weeks at 2000 ish which is also a possibility.should be an interesting 3 months

  11. radrian6 says:

    RUT continues to be micro managed to higher levels. The recent high of 1193.60 is within easy striking distance and beyond that is the historic high near 1213 — those targets will be met and exceeded unless the current paradigm changes.

    • torehund says:

      Radrian if you look from 2000 and onwards smallcaps were at 80 in 2007. Lots has happened to Technology and nanotech, and its possible that we are entering the large scale W 3. If so RUT can possibly double in a year or so.

  12. JK1987 says:

    Tony Thanks
    Naz only 1 point from the high.
    If this is Minute B, must be the max here.;

Comments are closed.