thursday update

SHORT TERM: pullback resumes then another rebound, DOW -21

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.3%. Europe opened higher but lost 0.4%. US index futures were lower overnight. At 8:30 Personal income (+0.4% v +0.3%)/spending (+0.2% v +0.1) were reported higher, the PCE was reported higher: +0.2% v +0.2%, and weekly Jobless claims were flat: 312k v 312k. The market opened two points below yesterday’s SPX 1960 close and quickly declined further. In the first 15 minutes of trading it dropped to SPX 1945. Then after setting up a short term positive divergence it started to rally. The rally continued until just past 3pm, when the SPX hit 1958. A dip into the close ended the day at SPX 1957.

For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.10%, and the NDX/NAZ were nearly flat. Bonds gained 7 ticks, Crude lost 85 cents, Gold slipped $3, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 1956 and 1929 pivots, with resistance at the 1973 and 2019 pivots. Tomorrow: Consumer sentiment at 10am.

The market opened a bit lower, like yesterday, and then made the low for the day in the first 15 minutes of trading, just like yesterday. Although today the low was 15 points below the previous close, while yesterday’s low was only 3 points below. With a positive divergence in place at today’s SPX 1945 low the market started to rally. The rally took the SPX back above the 1956 pivot presenting a couple of possibilities: 1. today’s rally is just a rebound within a Minute wave C as posted, or 2. today’s low ended Minute wave A, and Minute B is now underway. We will stay with possibility number one until SPX 1961 is hit again.

Short term support remains at the 1956 and 1929 pivots, with resistance at the 1973 and 2019 pivots. Short term momentum rose above neutral after today’s positive divergence. The short term OEW charts flip-flopped again, ending positive, with the reversal level now SPX 1955. Best to your summer Friday trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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82 Responses to thursday update

  1. CB says:

    Thanks Tony. A quick question..where that blue “a” is now that a new labeling as of today? thanks.

  2. Hi Tony
    Looks like we have ND in the NDX at the highs. Wondering if we had SPX minor 4 and are already in minor 5. However, if NDX turns over we are still in SPX minor 4. Just MHO>

  3. we are clearly in micro c of minute b….get ready to go short around 1961-3ish

  4. Bulls will go in cave for 1 month. This is SELL and FOLD Rev2. There cant be anymore revisions. Salivating!!!!!

  5. gary61b says:

    I am guessing spx to close at 1960 to keep the forums alive over the weekend. lol

  6. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony
    SPX ~ looks like an expanding triangle ‘b’ wave from yesterday high & low today.
    The ‘e’ wave target @ 1958ish.

  7. Jordi Güell says:

    Hi Tony, I’m worried, because The Nasdaq is very strong. A new high is made. When do you expect a down leg for the Nadaq? Without the Nasdaq, SPX and DJ aren’t going to fall.

  8. torehund says:

    Bulk: could very well be the bottom today. BDI is residing at or Close to ascending trendline from last years bottom.

  9. today’s choppy action is telling me that Tony’s option 2 is playing out and we are in minute b and yesterday’s low was actually minute a

  10. Lee X says:

    Hey Tony
    Tried to comment on your short term call the other day but I must of been in the boonies because it never got posted here so…..Hey nice job C Dog. 🙂

  11. Kevin M says:

    BTW anybody that follows $trin#’s can see today some fairly heavy selling, even though the indices don’t show it. Also the 5/ema/sma averages(on the $trin) are indicating a very strong rally is about to take place. The same type of readings that are present today, were present late May, mid April mid March and to a certain degree Feb 1st. All produced trading rallies with Mid March the least of the gains.

    Again hard to see it goes down much farther than yesterdays lows.

    • Kevin, when u turn bull or at least not bear, I know we are topping.

      • iamnewbie when you get the data we had this week that tells you the economy is terrible and we still go up there are no tops or bears. A -2.9 GDP did not send this market down, GDP down , sales down, stock up.

      • Kevin M says:

        lol the old dennis gartmen I’m bullish until late MID JULY, then again around August first, then I’m a bear in the fall time.
        I admit when I’m wrong and I was dearly in May. Thats what trading is all about. I went against my own rules in regards to the bulish trin #’a in May. That was a big mistake that I have learned from.


      • truth, you surely see the writing on the wall. Every time a country wants to get rid of the dollar we goto war with them, bomb them or harass them. The dollar is in its final stages of supremacy, in my opinion. I think, its time to Buy gold and silver get out of this fed ponzi scheme before the music stops.

    • fionamargaret says:

      maybe something like Bradley

  12. cmparis says:

    Any possibility we are in Minute V with 1891-1862-1964-1945 being I-IV?

  13. manunidhi21 says:

    Namaste Tony !

    1956-73 uptrend line on the chart signifies what ?
    It looks the line is acting a resistance today.

  14. fionamargaret says:

  15. rounder1944 says:

    Ready for the C wave to commence

  16. [Free] BREAKING: 10:55AM – S&P Zizgag Breakout and 1 week upward 3rd wave target

  17. torehund says:
    as always this is not a recommendation of buying any Stock mentioned, just illustrating the ascending abc and that corrections can be upwards tilted.

  18. mkt. update for thursday and plan for friday (within blog’s comments sect.):

    • Finally, some good news for the permabears. A four percent drop in worldwide temperatures is certain to wreak such agricultural devastation that it is a foregone conclusion the DJI will retest the July 8, 1932 intraday low of 40.56, thereby allowing Prechter to close out his short positions with only a commission loss.

      • fionamargaret says: made me laugh out loud….
        …would also put on hold Gore and Blair’s speaking engagements…

    • ariez5 says:

      Fiona, I normally like your posts. I am sad to see you buy into the conspiracy theory of climate change denial. If you want to convince the population that follows the 97% of respectable climate scientists who say that global warming is primarily human-induced, you might try providing links to journals with some semblance of scientific rigor or nonpartisanship.
      As it is, what you have linked to is just a 40-year old theory – which was itself based on historical data and did not consider the effects of human-induced release of greenhouse gases. Two-thirds of the increase in greenhouse gases over the last century have been produced since that theory was published. Were those scientists alive today, they would almost certainly modify their predictions given the evidence at hand.
      Global temperatures have risen about 1.4 degrees on average over the last century. Glaciers are melting rapidly – which can be clearly documented by aerial photographs – and rainfall patterns in the last two decades have left many parts of this country in long droughts. You can argue that the increase in greenhouse gases is only coincident with these climate changes, but no scientific body of national or international standing disagrees with the view that the observable trend of global warming over the last century is largely human-induced. Svante Arrhenius predicted as early as 1896 that this would happen as the result of fossil fuel combustion. You can also read very accurate predictions in the first reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change from the 1980s.
      The foolishness of denying climate change denial is that the threat of melting polar ice caps and acidification of the oceans is so huge, while so many benefits of reducing our dependence on fossil fuels remain even if greenhouse gases turn out not to be the primary cause of climate change. Fossil fuels are not unlimited, after all.

    • torehund says:

      Fiona, the freeze is good for commodities, and when something is streched too far in one direction nature has its way of dragging it in the opposite direction. Nature creates fundamental reasons by itself…
      There is always a bullmarket, latest Iheard there is a bullmarket in great white Sharks due to environmental protection. Population is rising faster than ever before, but no humans are eaten they say :).
      Thats how it goes when politicians/organizations interfere.
      Intervention it creates Bubbles and busts, or is it just nature at Works ?

  19. S&P 500, DOW, NASDAQ Forecasts 6/27/14 – Must break levels that would setup big upward 3’s (S&P 2010?)

  20. hi,Tony,could be a large ending diagonal for the C wave on Shangai composite,already completed?thanks

  21. soulsurfer says:

    Tony, since minor 2 was a double zigzag wouldn’t/shouldn’t minor 4 be of the (irregular) flat-type then? It would be a good alternate between the 2nd and 4th wave. That could mean, minute b up to 1968, then minute c ending below minute a at the 1929 pivot. Max frustration for both sides before rocketing to new ATHs for minor 5 (nobody long, all short… 😉 )

  22. soulsurfer says:

    Thanks for the update Tony! I totally agree with your 2 options. Going to new ATHs for a minor 5 directly from here seems from both a price and time perspective (I.e. Compared to minor 2 and minute iv) not logic, and almost too easy. I know the market isn’t necessary logic, but OEW is and that’s why I think further downside is awaiting.

    FYI: no buy signal on the daily AI, not even close, which on Tuesday correctly identified the minor 3 high. So I expect it to also correctly identify the minor 4 low.

  23. cmucha68 says:

    I meant Minute A

  24. cmucha68 says:

    Amendment to JK:

    Hi Tony,

    if the market does not go to 1961 or beyond what’s could be the next target for wave A instead of 1945 ?

    Thanks a lot !

  25. rogoutrader says:

    Tony would it be possible we can have a count on Dubai stock market, im trying to find a pro that can do it. Dubai lost more than 20% in a month after it reached YTD 50%

  26. rogoutrader says:

    Can we have a count for dubai stock market please would really appreciate it a lot.

  27. tony caldaro says:

    If this rally gets back to 1961, then Minute A ended at 1945.

  28. radrian6 says:

    Tough market … and I have to agree with Tony on the multiple possibilities for today’s action. RUT posted a higher low but the positive trading after that was not sufficient to convince me that we have seen the first two waves of a five-wave impulse. We could be seeing a complex wave C unfolding and if so, it should eventually take out today’s low at 1173 and retest or exceed yesterday’s low at 1169.

    If RUT continues higher, it may not be a lengthy run in price or in duration — there is serious resistance overhead starting near 1195. Since the gap-fill low on June 13, the RUT hasn’t looked too pretty — the daily price pattern is starting to look toppy. The RUT has some room to run higher with the daily upper BB near 1204 and the weekly upper BB near 1212, but there may not be a lot of comfort after the 110-point run and with SPX pressed up against strong resistance.

    I’m giving the RUT a short-term neutral status until I see directional follow through. If the follow through is up, I will be looking for to this uptrend to terminate at or before it hits the weekly upper BB.

  29. thanks tony….let see if the hanging man doji on SPX daily chart lives up to it’s bearish call and we some side tomorrow.

  30. JK1987 says:

    Tony Thanks
    Today’s low 1944.69 is Minute wave A.
    Minute B is now underway.
    Question: Does Minute B need to be lower than Minor b of 1960.83, or any rule for Minute B?

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