thursday update

SHORT TERM: pullback resumes then another rebound, DOW -21

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.3%. Europe opened higher but lost 0.4%. US index futures were lower overnight. At 8:30 Personal income (+0.4% v +0.3%)/spending (+0.2% v +0.1) were reported higher, the PCE was reported higher: +0.2% v +0.2%, and weekly Jobless claims were flat: 312k v 312k. The market opened two points below yesterday’s SPX 1960 close and quickly declined further. In the first 15 minutes of trading it dropped to SPX 1945. Then after setting up a short term positive divergence it started to rally. The rally continued until just past 3pm, when the SPX hit 1958. A dip into the close ended the day at SPX 1957.

For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.10%, and the NDX/NAZ were nearly flat. Bonds gained 7 ticks, Crude lost 85 cents, Gold slipped $3, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 1956 and 1929 pivots, with resistance at the 1973 and 2019 pivots. Tomorrow: Consumer sentiment at 10am.

The market opened a bit lower, like yesterday, and then made the low for the day in the first 15 minutes of trading, just like yesterday. Although today the low was 15 points below the previous close, while yesterday’s low was only 3 points below. With a positive divergence in place at today’s SPX 1945 low the market started to rally. The rally took the SPX back above the 1956 pivot presenting a couple of possibilities: 1. today’s rally is just a rebound within a Minute wave C as posted, or 2. today’s low ended Minute wave A, and Minute B is now underway. We will stay with possibility number one until SPX 1961 is hit again.

Short term support remains at the 1956 and 1929 pivots, with resistance at the 1973 and 2019 pivots. Short term momentum rose above neutral after today’s positive divergence. The short term OEW charts flip-flopped again, ending positive, with the reversal level now SPX 1955. Best to your summer Friday trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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82 Responses to thursday update

  1. CB says:

    Thanks Tony. A quick question..where that blue “a” is now that a new labeling as of today? thanks.


  2. Hi Tony
    Looks like we have ND in the NDX at the highs. Wondering if we had SPX minor 4 and are already in minor 5. However, if NDX turns over we are still in SPX minor 4. Just MHO>


  3. we are clearly in micro c of minute b….get ready to go short around 1961-3ish


  4. Bulls will go in cave for 1 month. This is SELL and FOLD Rev2. There cant be anymore revisions. Salivating!!!!!


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