wednesday update

SHORT TERM: market rebounds, DOW +49

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.3%. Europe opened lower and lost 0.9%. US index futures were higher overnight. At 8:30 Q1 GDP was reported lower than expected: -2.9% v -1.0%, and Durable goods orders were reported lower: -1.0% v +0.6%. The market opened two points below yesterday’s SPX 1950 close, dipped to 1947, then began to rally. Near the open FED governor Tarullo’s speech was released: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/tarullo20140625a.htm. The rally continued throughout the day until the SPX hit 1961 around 3:30. Then a dip to SPX 1960 ended the day.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.40%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.70%. Bonds gained 7 ticks, Crude added 55 cents, Gold was flat, and the USD was lower. Medium term support rises to the 1956 and 1929 pivots, with resistance at the 1973 and 2019 pivots. Tomorrow: weekly Jobless claims, PCE prices and Personal income/spending all at 8:30.

The market opened lower today, dipped to SPX 1947, then rallied, with two 4 point pullbacks, for the rest of the day. An odd response to a much worse than expected Q1 GDP report. The 21 point pullback from yesterday’s SPX 1968 high, is larger than any pullback, during a rally, during this uptrend. Which suggests Minor wave 3 ended at SPX 1968, and Minor 4 is underway. Minor wave 2 had declined 34 points (1885-1851), and took the form of a double zigzag. Would expect Minor 4 to be something like a simple a-b-c zigzag. Thus far we have had a decline to 1947, then a rally to 1961. Labeled today’s low Minute wave a, with Minute b underway.

Short term support is at the 1956 and 1929 pivots, with resistance back to the 1973 and 2019 pivots. Short term momentum rose from quite oversold to above neutral. The short term OEW charts flipped positive today with the reversal level SPX 1957. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

Investor
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69 Responses to wednesday update

  1. cmucha68 says:

    I am not really an Elliott wave counter (never learned it) but rather an intuitive trader. I don’t know what you guys think, but the market (S&P) smells as if it wants to test 1958-1960 area today by the close if there is not a sharp sell off again in the last hour. What comes tomorrow then only God and the wave counters may know. If we close around that levels mentioned above does anybody see a test of the old high or even 1973 tomorrow or is this then the last attempt and we are done with the upside and south we go next week from Monday on ? Have all great success !

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  2. minor 4 turning into something more complex than a simple abc wave as minute b likely turning into a triangle that will result in minute c ultimately testing Tony’s 1929 pivot

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  3. ariez5 says:

    Tony,
    A=1968-1947
    B=1947-1960
    C=1960-1944 (C=76.8 A)?
    Very pronounced hourly divergences in Dow and NYA at the low (not so much in SPX).
    I admit it is shallow, though. Not even a 23% retracement of Minor 3.

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    • lunker1 says:

      maybe micro abc of minute a to 1945 and now in minute b
      1956.5 is 50%
      1959 is 62%

      FWIW the Dow had 5 waves down.

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    • mjtplayer says:

      Minutte (orange) a-b of minute c? We could get a minor 4 low tomorrow around the 1,929 pivot on the new moon, then rally into next week on month/quarter-end window dressing and July 4th holiday weekend – another “holiday high” for minor 5 to end int 3 early the following week after the long weekend??

      Too much support from end of month/quarter/half-year window dressing for a large selloff, too many managers that want to hold-up the market.

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  4. Intraday .618 broke S&P and upward 3 intraday 1.618 target http://wavegenius.com/recent-posts

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    • Kevin M says:

      Ted I gotta be honest with you. That link/website you want others to click on is NOT very user friendly. Lots of noise imho. Just something to think about.

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  5. blackjak100 says:

    A minor wave does not last 3 days and retrace 23 pts. If we exceed 1968, then Tony’s count is suspect. This 10pt rebound could be an x wave or a higher degree b wave. A few pts higher and the downward channel is already broken out of.

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  6. lunker1 says:

    so far today’s rebound is stopping right where it should at 1952.5. it’s the 14.6% of minor 3 (which also happens to be the 141.4 fib ext of 667 -> 1576). it’s also a backtest of last Thursday’s old support. Micro B of Minute C might be in.
    micro A = 16
    micro C=.62A=1942
    micro C=A=1936
    micro C=1.62A=1926
    micro C=2A=1920

    minute C = A = 1940
    minute C = 1.62A = 1927
    minute C = 2A = 1920

    The Q’s gave an .887 sell signal late afternoon yesterday to complete minute B and today retraced 50% of the intraday dip for micro B or minute C with B being another bearish rising wedge that already broke down.

    looks like things are trying to roll over here.

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  7. fionamargaret says:

    …interesting the LSE wants to list the IWM – probably Rad knows this already….

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  8. The measured move of the first down wave from the 6/24 high is 1926.88.
    The April-May uptrend line is currently about 1922 and rising.
    Maestro’s target area looks increasingly appealing.

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  9. xela0 says:

    Am mostly a lurker, but lotsa kudos to having nailed this practically in real time.

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