SHORT TERM: market rebounds, DOW +49
Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.3%. Europe opened lower and lost 0.9%. US index futures were higher overnight. At 8:30 Q1 GDP was reported lower than expected: -2.9% v -1.0%, and Durable goods orders were reported lower: -1.0% v +0.6%. The market opened two points below yesterday’s SPX 1950 close, dipped to 1947, then began to rally. Near the open FED governor Tarullo’s speech was released: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/tarullo20140625a.htm. The rally continued throughout the day until the SPX hit 1961 around 3:30. Then a dip to SPX 1960 ended the day.
For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.40%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.70%. Bonds gained 7 ticks, Crude added 55 cents, Gold was flat, and the USD was lower. Medium term support rises to the 1956 and 1929 pivots, with resistance at the 1973 and 2019 pivots. Tomorrow: weekly Jobless claims, PCE prices and Personal income/spending all at 8:30.
The market opened lower today, dipped to SPX 1947, then rallied, with two 4 point pullbacks, for the rest of the day. An odd response to a much worse than expected Q1 GDP report. The 21 point pullback from yesterday’s SPX 1968 high, is larger than any pullback, during a rally, during this uptrend. Which suggests Minor wave 3 ended at SPX 1968, and Minor 4 is underway. Minor wave 2 had declined 34 points (1885-1851), and took the form of a double zigzag. Would expect Minor 4 to be something like a simple a-b-c zigzag. Thus far we have had a decline to 1947, then a rally to 1961. Labeled today’s low Minute wave a, with Minute b underway.
Short term support is at the 1956 and 1929 pivots, with resistance back to the 1973 and 2019 pivots. Short term momentum rose from quite oversold to above neutral. The short term OEW charts flipped positive today with the reversal level SPX 1957. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend
LONG TERM: bull market