monday update

SHORT TERM: consolidation continues, DOW -10

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.6%. Europe opened lower and lost 0.6% as well. US index futures were higher overnight, but the market opened one point below Friday’s SPX 1963 close. In the opening minutes the market dipped to SPX 1960, then bounced to 1964 by 10am. At 10am Existing home sales were reported higher: 4.89mn v 4.65mn. The market then pulled back to SPX 1959 by 11:30, and went into a four point trading range for the rest of the day. Heading into to the close the SPX hit 1963 and finished there.

For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.05%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.05%. Bonds dipped 1 tick, Crude lost 65 cents, Gold rose $4, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 1956 and 1929 pivots, with resistance at the 1973 and 2019 pivots. Tomorrow: Case-Shiller and FHFA housing at 9am, then New home sales and Consumer confidence at 10am.

The market opened slightly lower today, retouched the high at SPX 1964, pulled back to 1959, and then went into a trading range for the rest of the day. Today’s small 5 point range was actually larger than option expiration Friday’s 3 point range. There certainly appears to be a balance of buyers and sellers at current levels. In the meantime, Friday’s short term overbought condition has been worked off as the RSI has dropped down to neutral. Up, down, more sideways tomorrow? Tough call with the market currently balanced. We are still waiting for at least a 10 point pullback, to signal Minor wave 3 could be over. So far the pullback has only be five points.

Short term support is at the 1956 and 1929 pivots, with resistance at the 1973 and 2019 pivots. Short term momentum hit neutral today. The short term OEW charts remain positive with the reversal level now SPX 1960. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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90 Responses to monday update

  1. fionamargaret says:

    ……maybe waterfall slide to 1929 tomorrow….then up to finish quarter??

    Thanks Tony.

  2. cmucha68 says:

    My gut feeling was right from yesterday. The market will really go down. Good Intuition is the finest art in trading !

  3. Hey bulls should have no worry,. Its tues and almost 330. matter time for the vix smash bull ramp

  4. Kevin M says:

    I see Tony has officially labeled 3. Ok so maybe 4 around the 1930ish (1935-8 to be exact) range? I’d say most likely takes the same amount of time as 2(5 days), so maybe by this Friday 4 will be in place. Fit’s perfectly with seasonals also. Seasonals do suggest a high in mid July, a sell-off in to the first part of August, then another push higher into the last part of August.

    Sep, Oct and Nov will be tough, considering printing will be officially over with.


  5. torehund says:

    Complex abc Down on the rut looks finished here.

  6. JK1987 says:

    Tony Thanks for the new label of Minute 3.;

    Minute target 1929 pivot of micro iv at 1926?

  7. “forced to trade price and some lines on a chart?”

  8. Hi Tony,
    Although pessimism has been stubborn, optimism is riding very high. The put/call ratio in the vxx is whacky to say least. I have never seen them so one sided This would seem to indicate a more significant top or at least a top that will be difficult to beat. Keep up the good work.

    • I’m with you there… technical’s on the chart are very bearish. But the wave count is still bullish, and of course there’s the EXTREMELY light volume, which always seems to favor the bulls. But the most important thing to remember is that the market is 100% rigged to go up 90% of the time.

      So even though I’m a bear on the economy the market isn’t living in reality. It’s an illusion created to make us sheep think everything is OK… which we know it’s not as more and more jobs disappear, never to return.

      But fear not as after they create they largest bubble since 1929 you’ll see a final top in 2017 at some insane level… followed by an insane crash that makes 1929 look like an ant to an elephant.

  9. JK1987 says:

    Tony, Perfect oew target
    Wave v top is in place at 1968.17?
    9 points reversal.;

  10. Line in sand..Anyone remember my post yesterday?

    Now, this line in sand moves UP by 1 point everyday. First Perfect SHORT in last @6 months. not even 0.3 here and there

    • lunker1 says:

      yes your post said to go short but gave no reasons why to go short now, no reason why your stop was at 2008 and no idea what your target to cover was.

      I only gamble at a casino.

      • You did not read it fully, I said, I will reason it out strategy succeed or fail.

        Anyway, I covered at 61.6, then went down to 58 something…My covering does not alter strategy, will Re-SHORT, this time at 69.

        If today were TURN day, we should have seen 1950 in SPX, but we did not see. It wll now again try flirting 70

        When Re short, First cover at 1906….

    • lunker1 says:

      and your prior reasoning to go short 4 times that all failed was based off a fractal from a few years ago that failed.

      The Blind Squirrel

      • This time it is not FRACTAL

        I did not go SHORT 4 times. I shorted many occasions and covered on many occasions around 1840-60s, but the last short that I opened was stopped out.

        I said “going on wrong 4 times..”, I was 4 times going wrong predictions..

  11. radrian6 says:

    The RUT has arrived at another resistance area — 1193.96 which matches the high of April 3. The next resistance target is 1208 which is the high of March 21. There is a short-term measured move target of 1205.35 which is based on an hourly cup-with-handle pattern that completed and broke up on June 18.

    I wouldn’t hold your breath waiting for this market to correct but, if it does, RUT has some support around 1178 but the really good stuff is around 1160-54.

    For the current uptrend, I have potential Fib targets of 1196.48 and 1217.65 but those targets are negated if RUT moves below 1179.84 before reaching 1196.48.

    I am leaning bullish for a couple of reasons. First, a lot of big-money players are on vacation so the “crowd” is comprised of a higher-than-normal percentage of amateur players who are less likely to short or hedge. Second, we’re getting close to the July 4 holiday and holidays tend to be bullish. I don’t have any statistics regarding market performance around July 4 so my second assertion is unqualified.

    I can’t offer any wave count for the RUT nor can I correlate its performance to the SPX or to Tony’s wave count. I know Tony is looking for a minor correction of ~30 points for SPX — if that happens, RUT should follow suit by testing 1160-54.

    • pooch77 says:

      Nothing bearish until mid July earnings,gdp tomorrow,not a wave counter so I just go by the charts…I will long a iwm C position if 2 hour can come down to around 20 on Stoch,bit more than that but general idea

      • radrian6 says:

        Hi Pooch, RUT hourly chart starting to look a bit toppy but we’ll have to wait and see. Upside progress should be limited on SPX — it’s too close to its weekly upper BB. Growth indexes may continue higher but they’re getting overbaked at this point — RUT is up over 110 points without a serious correction.

      • pooch77 says:

        With you Rad,would just like to see snp pullback 30 points and rut at 1178 or less,because we gonna make final run into July,rut weekly still looking strong and 3- 4 week run should top it out

      • radrian6 says:

        Pooch — there’s a potential intraday topping pattern in play with the neckline near 1182. Keep an eye on that level — if RUT breaks and closes below that area, the correction is underway.

    • pooch77 says:

      Thanks Rad,will stay tuned

  12. FYI … sold GDX at 25.99.

  13. JK1987 says:

    10 points at 11:00

  14. torehund says:

    Look at the News and look at the Stocks marketcap, News out today but it was hurried far Down in the Google Finances side-reads (rigged hiding). Point is, there isnt any exuberant market optimism when a 1 bill USD market opportunity prices a stock a Stock at just 35 mill mcap….
    No buying advice as always, just for illustrational purposes.

  15. very rare for globex to be high/low. ES HH @60, now we can see if wave terminates. Today is good Gann date price/time. Interesting rally, forced to trade price and some lines on a chart. no indicators/EW. Works sometimes. :mrgreen:
    pretty much summer vacation time. Fishing picked up, golf is cheap. Be well. USA!

    • torehund says:

      HD, extracurricular pursuits are always secondary to stocktrading, at least if there isnt any surf 🙂

      • H D says:

        Ha! I’m doing opposite. Finally, after years, trading decent size. Only need a couple good ones a month. Check DRYS. Watching this 3.33 HWB range for bigger cupnhandle.

  16. alexhartley1 says:

    Am wondering if we can drift/grind higher into the July bank holiday from here! Was expecting the market to head down today.

  17. mjtplayer says:

    neg div’s everywhere I look and in almost every market; on the S&P we have -div on every time frame.

  18. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony
    SPY ~ WPP Support Held @ 195.40 ~ WR1 @197.22

  19. Obvious BIg Upward 3’s on 6 Month Chart of Indices – Front Page Video –

    • wildmick says:

      hey ted. while I agree there’s lots of BSer’s on the web calling for a crash and the trend is still bullish, be careful stating that ALL sites are calling for a crash. find one time on this site where Tony has called for a crash. as for fancy charts, this site has the best charts I’ve seen yet.

    • rc1269 says:

      i love obvious trades

  20. ko68 says:

    Thanks again Tony
    What is your opinion on the XLE? Should it finish the int 3 in same time as the SP500, or..?

  21. jparkins10 says:

    Ryan Detrick, CMT ‏@RyanDetrick
    Going back to 1970, the $SPX has never had three straight days with an intraday range of less than 0.26%. Sitting at 2 currently.

  22. valunvstr says:

    I don’t think the outcome will be the same but can this look any more similar?

  23. theyenguy says:

    Dear Sir, You are the most bullish blogger on the Internet, as you write MEDIUM TERM: uptrend
    and LONG TERM: bull market.

    Sorry to read that there are no words of caution in your post.

    Please consider that on Monday June 23, 2014, The loose monetary policies of the world central banks have finally stirred up inflation and have finally resulted in turning investment sentiment from greed to fear, specifically fear that the world central banks’ monetary policies have crossed the rubicon of sound monetary policy, and have “money good” investments bad.

    Excluding the Precious Metal Mining Stocks, GDX, GDXJ, SIL, SILJ, all forms of fiat wealth, World Stocks, VT, Nation Investment, EFA, Global Financials, IXG, Commodities, DBC, and Aggregate Credit, AGG, traded lower, causing the world to enter into the final phase of the Business Cycle, that is Kondratieff Winter, providing the perfect short selling opportunity of selling from an equity market top, more specifically an Elliott Wave 5 High.

    Wealth cannot be preserved by investing in any fiat asset. Gold Miners, GDX, such as EGO, Junior Gold Miners, GDXJ, such as ANV, Silver Miners, SIL, such as SLW, and Junior Silver Miners, SILJ, such as SSRI, traded higher, manifesting a blow off market top, in the Precious Metal Mining Stocks; these are no longer a viable investment opportunity.

    Soon the US Dollar, $USD, UUP, will buckle and trade lower with the rest of the World Major Currencies, DBV, as well as the Emerging Market Currencies, CEW, which will invigorate the investment demand for Gold, GLD, whose price will rise from its current range of $1,240 to $1,320.

    Gold is in the middle of an Elliott Wave 3 Up, and as such only God knows how high it will go.

    Wealth can only be preserved by investing in and taking physical possession of gold bullion.

  24. soulsurfer says:

    thanks for the update tony, looking toppy imho, some stocks need to take a break IMHO. Btw, did it ever cross your mind that 2074 for Primary III would be exactly 1000 points of the primary II low!? It fits very well in our target areas and wouldn’t that just be something!?

  25. Lee X says:

    Thanks Tony

  26. Thanks, Tony! Have a nice evening.

  27. $JNUG, $TWTR, $FB, $ENG, $RDNT, $FLML, $PLUG, $DXM, the “We Float” roadmap for this week:

  28. ocaj2000 says:


  29. cmucha68 says:

    I don’t know why but my gut feeling tells me we could go really down tomorrow. Let’s see and good luck to everyone !

    • Funny enough, same here. Some stocks I follow are starting to show weakness (albeit small) after NEVER seeming to have a down day — except for today. They were all red.

      • torehund says:

        Jedi I saw that too, for some shares, but there was no volume on a small downside. Strong hands and extremely few buyers, and MM has a tendency to drop a few shares and accumulate any sell orders coming in. Given that metals are starting to move slightly this could brew into an upturn in the real econnomy (which we havent seen in this bull).

  30. bouraq says:

    Signs of weakness on DOW:

    • Double tops on DJI and Naz accompanying the most extremely optimistic sentiment indicator readings since 12/31/13. GDXJ led the gold charge, and now has negative histogram divergence on the daily chart. Each observation consistent with your forecast.

      Excellent analysis as always, Your Majesty. You have obviously channeled the legendary Edwards and Magee.

      • *picture*yourself*on*a*boat*in*a*river* says:

        We are interpreting AAII differently. My perception is that for the week reported on 6/12, the positive spread between bulls and bears (23.44) was the largest on the list. That time frame coincides with the first high of the double top on DJI and the daily RSI momentum high on SPX. Weighted p/c ratios confirm the excessive optimism. I am unfamiliar with tickersense.

      • lunker1 says:

        Disagree. can’t interpret much from one weekly number especially where the average weekly sample size of responders may only be 300 members (and not the same ones) so it only takes 10-20 people to change things. An overly bullish condition 2 std devs doesn’t exist until 60% bullish is hit so 45% is “normal” and continues to be until 50%

      • Standard deviation?
        I didn’t realize that I was dealing with Descartes.
        I am just a trading peasant who is baffled by stochastics.
        Let’s try for a more representative sample size to filter aberrations:
        10 day sma $CPC lowest level since Jan/lower than at the 9/19/13 high.
        10 day sma $CPCE lowest level since 2011.
        The 40 day exponential CBOE total p/c ratio is also at multi-year lows.
        And run a 10 week sma on the AAII Bull/Bear differential.
        After you effortlessly shoot these down, I have some more invalid sentiment analysis for your inspection.

      • lunker1 says:

        If that data works for you then use it. My point was their own interpretation of their dara doesnt jive with your opinion that Investors were “extremely optimistic” and had “Excessive optimism”.

  31. torehund says:

    Thanks Tony.
    Manufacturing picking up With strength never seen in 3 years, this fits With us being in a primary 2 bottom and the upturn we had in the meantime was just a corrective move 2 wave move due to relative US strength. >Now is maybe the start of the real primary 3…if so we could raly in this 3 until 2023, then dive into a primary four and extend the five into 2029 🙂

    • torehund says:

      ..or correct from 2023 into 2029 in a four, and then rally until 2032.

      • This is my first time commenting on this site after reading the comments for sometime. I kind of agree with you torehund, where the market could go on an extended rally. What you have mentioned has happened twice in the last 100 years, although there were 20% to 30% corrections, but the overall trend was up for 16-17 years. DOW seems to go thru multi-year sideways chop. Once it brakesout of the multi-year consolidation, the market rallied 1st time 16 yrs, 2nd time 17 yrs with corrections along the way, ie 1987 35% correction. However, with all the world in such turmoil, I ask myself, will this time be different? I don´t know. Best to your trading, el-p DOW log chart

    • Kevin M says:

      What are you smoking? You cant be serious right?

      Sorry guys but this torehund is text book perma-bull….with a capital P

      Another 15 years of bull market?????? Please torehund tell where I can get the good stuff. I want to believe…

      PS if you’re talking about levels and not years, then disregard what I said.

      • torehund says:

        Kevin its just an idea to keep us agile in the Counts. Its perfectly feasible from where we stand now.

      • Kevin M says:

        Torehund-If what you say is valid, then you do understand it would be the mother of all bubbles and after your 2029-2032 date the crash would put humanity back into the stone ages? so to s;peak? yikes. dow 100,000 anyone? and then a 50,000 point crash thereafter…..

        Tony? anyone?…lol

      • torehund says:

        Kevin yes it would be a huge bubble and like Prechter would have said; it will be a sight to see 🙂 From 1924 to 1929 the macd was nearly permanently stuck to the ceiling. Jessie Livermore went long in 1923.

    • tony caldaro says:

      good luck with that 😉

      • Kevin M says:

        BTW Tony if you look at the $trin averages(5ema and 5ma)you’ll notice they are both on sell signals from last thurs. You should get your 30pt decline. Don’t see how the market can rally in the face of those numbers. A reset of some sort would benefit, even if it did last only for a few days.

        Question for you tony, What is the possibility in your opinion that the markets are currently in a similar state compared to 1987? If you look back then the spx held it’s 20ma in late june and july and the did a moon shot into August. Is the same structure that was then here today? No kidding around, this is a serious question.

        Thanks in advance.

      • tony caldaro says:

        There are some comparisons.
        1984-1987: +107% before last wave
        2011-2014: +83% before last wave
        But then we were coming out of a long term base and rose 235% in 5 years.
        This time we came out of a deflationary spiral and have risen 194% in 5 years, so far

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