friday update

SHORT TERM: new highs then consolidation, DOW +26

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.1%. Europe opened lower and lost 0.1% too. US index futures were higher overnight, and the market opened two points above yesterday’s SPX 1959 record close. Just past 10am the SPX hit 1964, then went into a three point trading range for the rest of the day, closing at SPX 1963.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.15%, and the NDX/NAZ were up +0.15%. Bonds were flat, Crude gained 60 cents, Gold slipped $4, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 1956 and 1929 pivots, with resistance at the 1973 and 2019 pivots. Today the WLEI was reported lower: 54.4% v 54.5%.

The market opened higher today, made a marginal new high, then went into a trading range for the rest of the day on this very quiet triple expiration. We now see five Micro waves up from the Minute iv low at SPX 1926: 1941-1931-1960-1952-1964. This suggests we now have five Minute waves up from the Minor 2 wave low at SPX 1851. In fact, Minor wave 3 equals 1.618 Minor 1 at SPX 1966. As soon as Minor wave 3 tops, if it has not topped already, we should get about a 30 point pullback for Minor wave 4. Then a rally to new highs to complete Minor wave 5 and the uptrend.

Short term support remains at the 1956 and 1929 pivots, with resistance at the 1973 and 2019 pivots. Short term momentum hit quite overbought again today. The short term OEW charts remain positive with the reversal level now SPX 1959. Best to your weekend!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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29 Responses to friday update

  1. opader says:

    Thx Tony …. my thoughts:
    Indices Are Over Bought

  2. torehund says:

    George i. Thinking primært three is just about starting . 2:2

  3. lunker1 says:

    intraday looks like a slightly declining pennant (flag) so perhaps a break up to hit 1966/68. Maybe one last E to 1960 then up

  4. Have a nice weekend, Tony and all! Like all weekends, I’ll be looking forward to your weekend update, Tony. 🙂

    -OEW Coffee Club Member

  5. rc1269 says:

    Thanks Tony
    Great week. Great month.
    You’re en fuego!
    You deserve a little WC watching and a mai tai this weekend. 🙂

  6. To JK1987: You posted this on Thurs site: “At 1956, oew was looking for micro 4 at 1929 pivot, perfect!”

    1926 was not a micro 4 low, but it was a minute 4 low.

  7. soulsurfer says:

    FYI, if minor 3 is to top around here, say 1964 then minor 3 was in total 150 points (1814->1964). 4th waves at the same degree tend to retrace ~38.2%. That would bring the SPX back to: 1964-0.382*(150)=1928 for minor 4. BINGO right at the 1929 OEW pivot and nicely following my ideal road map presented last weekend:

    • Minor 2 was not at 1814, intermed 2 was at 1814. Minor 2 low was at 1851.

      “This suggests we now have five Minute waves up from the Minor 2 wave low at SPX 1851”.

      • soulsurfer says:

        I stand corrected. that would make minor 3 ~113-115 points. and a 38.2% retrace down to low 1920. probably thus lower end of 1929 OEW pivot.

  8. soulsurfer says:

    thanks tony! looking forward to the weekend update. Target areas achieved, time to sit back, relax and enjoy some good ‘ol profits, and to load up at minor 4.

  9. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony
    Good Weekend all.

  10. jparkins10 says:

    Smallest range day for SPY in the 30 months I’ve been collecting this piece of data.

  11. pooch77 says:

    Charts all looking to toppy,maybe 1970 on Monday but really liking Tonys pullback to 1930ish to ride the bull train

    • radrian6 says:

      Hello Pooch,
      The bulls have put a temporary stranglehold on volatility — some of it is due to OpEx but I agree that conditions are toppy. We have some volatility events on tap starting with Minor 4 and followed by Intermediate 4 — this will shake up the status quo and create some new opportunities. I recall Tony predicting some volatility toward the end of June and into July and that appears reasonable at this point.

      RUT has been higher for six straight sessions and is overbaked in multiple timeframes. Traders are trusting the growth indexes with more and more of their money so we may see some rotation back to more defensive and cyclical names. RUT and NDX may be hit harder than SPX and DJI during the upcoming corrections.

      • Do you think it would be better to add to a long position during minor 4, or wait for Intermediate iv? Which wave is likely to drop lower?

      • timing101 says:

        Nice editorial here, that could provide the catalyst for the start of Primary IV in Aug./Sept.

      • radrian6 says:

        Hello Wisconsin,
        The Minor iv correction will offer a short-term opportunity but keep in mind that fifth waves can be unreliable and may truncate short of expectation. Intermediate iv will take some points off the indexes and set up a more sustained uptrend. If you are an aggressive and agile trader, you can take a long position when SPX drops into the 1929 pivot range. If you consider yourself to be a longer-term trader, you may be better served by waiting for the more serious correction.

      • pooch77 says:

        Hi there Rad my small cap man,think we got about all we can out of this move,now wait for the charts to reset for the next move,thanks for commentary its really appreciated

      • I am definitely longer-term. Based on much of the info on Tony’s blog, I should probably wait for the Primary IV drop before adding to my stock positions. Thanks for your valuable insight. I truely respect your advice.

      • Wisc.MD: Good advice from Radrian. I also think it would be reasonable to expect Int. 4 to fully retrace minor 5 of int. 3.

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