thursday update

SHORT TERM: new highs then consolidation, DOW +15

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.4%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.6%. US index futures were relatively flat overnight, and at 8:30 weekly Jobless claims were reported lower: 312k v 317k. The market opened unchanged at SPX 1957, moved up to 1960 in the first few minutes, then began to pullback. At 10am the Philly FED was reported higher: 17.8 v 15.4, and Leading indicators were higher: +0.5% v +0.4%. The pullback continued until around 1:30 when the SPX hit 1952. After that it started moving higher, closing at SPX 1959.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.10%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.10%. Bonds gained 3 ticks, Crude added 50 cents, Gold soared $42, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 1956 and 1929 pivots, with resistance at the 1973 and 2019 pivots. Tomorrow: Options expiration.

The market opened flat today, made a new all time high at SPX 1960, then pulled back to 1952. The NAZ made a new bull market high today too. Now all four major indices have completed the minimum for this uptrend. The pullback was just one point shy of the minimum we were expecting for Micro wave 4. So we can not totally rule out that Micro 4 did end today, and Micro 5 is now underway. The first three waves of Minute v were: 1941-1931-1960. Should the market now make a higher high, above 1960, we could assume Minor wave 3 is also ending and a 25-30 point Minor 4 could follow. This short term situation should clear up in a day or two, especially with OPEX tomorrow.

Short term support is at the 1956 and 1929 pivots, with resistance at the 1973 and 2019 pivots. Short term momentum hovered around overbought all day. The short term OEW charts remain positive with the reversal level now SPX 1952. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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79 Responses to thursday update

  1. ariez5 says:

    Don’t know if the SPY has topped this minor wave, but I do think Europe (FEZ) has.

  2. llerias7 says:

    Tony, I realise that you printed 1246 pts on $ATG chart…might be the ST bottom for the minute/minor 2 wave?
    Again, thanks for your dedication.

  3. rc1269 says:


    once italy vs costa rica starts you can add two more ‘z’s to that. hah

  4. Opportunity to purchase TYSON FOODS, if the asset break resistance at 35.66 will get close gap at 37.37. Stop in 34.28.

  5. mjtplayer says:

    Copper putting-in a RS of a small H&S pattern? If so, minimum downside target is $2.80 on a break of the $3 neckline; time to re-short copper.

  6. 63.63 another 55.55?

  7. JK1987 says:

    Tony Thanks
    Perfect 1962 prediction at Minute iv.
    OEW tutoring is excellent, even much more details and offered in the oew tutoring group, highly recommended, must join!
    With oew turtoring, in a short 2 months, I have learned much more than all the past all together.

      • manunidhi21 says:

        Namaste Tony!
        Dont know when I can be part of OEW group.

        Hi JK..
        You are a lucky one.

      • JK1987 says:

        manunidhi21, study and learn hard is the key.
        How can one not study hard on the oew tutoring material, it’s a treasure, a launch pad to much more in the group.
        You must study hard to join.
        A lot more details in the oew group, R2K, SOX, gold, metals … much much more every day, much much more than the public blog here. Must join!

    • jeffbalin says:

      You could probably have predicted JK was going to be an ultimate student. Pretty obvious this guy studies and works very hard, asks a lot of questions and has a huge desire to learn. GeorgeSchaeffer would probably make a great student too. Me, I have a huge desire to learn but lot of other life things going on. JK is who I would like to be, and who everyone should be in whatever life projects you choose.

    • with all do respect JK and no disrespect to Caldaro this is not a rock science market., it goes up everyday no matter what. you really don’t need to keep a count just stay bullish.

      • JK1987 says:

        Market does not go up everyday.
        At 1956, oew was looking for micro 4 at 1929 pivot, perfect! Even had details listed in the oew tutoring group. Here micro 5 also is perfect with the plan.
        If you are bearish, you need to join oew tutoring too,,can save you $$$.
        In today’s group offer, there are much more than you can imagine.

        thetruthtrader1, 3 weeks ago you said you were considering to join oew tutoring.
        If you did, then would be much different for you on trading.
        It’s not too late to join.

      • yes I would like to learn OEW and respect Caldaro a lot. But this is a fed market not technical and fundamentals. its goes higher because YELLEN and Bernanke before her are goosing it. they want higher stock prices. We have NEG GDP. companies are missing left and right. its all stock buy backs.. This is not a market to track with a count. Now if your long your making money. My son has been killing it. he buys every dip and he thinks he is Monroe Trout because he is making a ton of money for a young kid.

        • tony caldaro says:

          During 1932-1937 the FED was increasing the monetary base by purchasing Gold.
          The Gov’t was running deficit spending with all of FDR’s alphabet programs.
          That was Cycle wave [1] of the 1932-2007 Super cycle.
          In December 1936 Congress diverted the Gold purchases from the FED to the Treasury, ending the monetary base increase.
          FDR also started to wind down his programs.
          The five wave bull market ended shortly thereafter.
          Sound familiar?

      • Caldaro the fed is in uncharted waters right now. this has never been done. we don’t know the end game

        • tony caldaro says:

          The end game is a Cycle wave [2] bear market
          Bernanke did not create anything new.
          He just substituted Gov’t debt for Gold.
          Then we were on a gold standard, now we are on a fiat debt standard.

  8. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony
    SPY ~ Options Pin @ 197
    GL & Good Weekend All

  9. pooch77 says:

    Tony would a 6-8 point m9ve up fulfill micro 5 today?If we move 2-3 points or down today would we wait until Monday to fulfill micro 5

    • tony caldaro says:

      just looking for a higher high today, or lower low … or both
      micro waves not absolutely clear at this point

      • Jordi Güell says:

        Hi Tony, I suppose that SPX and Dax are in the same situation. Is my assumption correct? After this V microwave, are we going for a 10-15% correction?

        • tony caldaro says:

          No, not even close.
          SPX still needs to complete Minor waves 3, 4 and 5.
          Then a correction of 5% to 10%, followed by an uptrend to new highs.
          DAX could roll over at any time.

  10. “Should the market now make a higher high, above 1960, we could assume Minor wave 3 is also ending and a 25-30 point Minor 4 could follow.”

    It seems to me that the most obvious inference one would make if $SPX moved above 1960 would be that micro 3 was still in effect and that micro 4 was still ahead of us. You seem to be saying that an SPX move above 1960 would be evidence that micro 4 was complete and that since micro 5 had already moved up 8 points from 1852, it had already exhausted half or more of it’s upside potential. So we could expect a minor 3 top not far above 1960.

  11. hooloo1957 says:

    hey Tony, do you have thoughts of the commodities cycle extending now that silver and gold have blasted off? Thanks

    • tony caldaro says:

      bear market rallies have been going on in most of them

      • robnath says:

        Firt time posting.
        Tony, I think you do great work, and am amazed by your accuracy.
        Question: You indicate (8:05 post) that after 5 (intermediate iii) is completed soon there will be a 5-10% decline. Assuming that 3,4 and 5 complete at the 1980 level or so, I find that difficult to accept in that Intermediate i was at 1883 and it would be unlikely there would be an overlap. Even 5% would overlap. 10% would retrace more than all of Intermediate iii. Secondly, the trend line connecting 1737 and 1814 lows should find support at 1925 or so in mid-July.

      • tony caldaro says:

        welcome Rob
        the correction may be smaller
        but the overlap would not occur until the correction hit 1884
        since there was an irregular top

  12. great post tony, this market is crazy at the moment, GOLD and CRUDE is where action is.

    Check out the crude chart lately. WOW ->

  13. mjtplayer says:

    At 172.6 on the daily oscillator, GDX is off the charts overbought. Today felt like blow-off/panic short covering, with heavy volume and no relief/pullbacks intra-day.

  14. Thanks, Tony! As you mentioned, OPEX tomorrow. Lots of time, as you know,they let OPEX expire day without much market change … and then the following week comes the action.

  15. ariez5 says:

    MJT, you were kind enough to respond to my query on gold a couple of months ago, so I thought I would tell you – with only the best intentions – that you sound like you have an agenda, which, I am sure you know, is a terrible thing for a trader. Forget the Gold volatility numbers. This market is impulsing. Forget the Head and Shoulders from several years ago. Now there is a pretty sizable Inverse Head and Shoulders. Try a small quick short as this thing works off its overbought condition, sure, but know that you are clearly going against the trend at this point. I am (unfortunately) not in this trade, and I do not know whether this is a C wave or 2nd wave, but I know not to stand in front of a truck.

  16. ocaj2000 says:


  17. lunker1 says:

    Micro 1 = 15
    5 = 1 = 1967

    Minute 1 = 41
    5 = 1 = 1967

    Minor 1 = 71
    3 = 1.62×1 = 1966

  18. rc1269 says:

    thanks Tony

    looking over my screens today the markets were telling me the fear of Fed policy error and rate shock increased a little. the stance of ‘low for long’ in the face of mounting inflationary data points is definitely getting some folks jittery. lots of talk about gold/gdx around here, as we’ve all noticed. i also see serious moves in nthe 30yr tsy as well as TIPS breakevens, which to me apear ready to break out to the upside.

    is it a Feed ‘oops’ or is it all by design? there is a very fine line in their business. i guess we’ll find out when we see how far and how fast stuff moves. cheers.

    • mccarthyti says:

      for years they should have just said we won’t tighten until inflation is well beyond 4%

      to take inflation back down to zero is simple. stop buying bonds. raise rates, and if that doesn’t do it fast enough…. liquidate the holdings on the balance sheet. don’t worry about the losses, treasury guarantees it

  19. Markets most likely have reached turning point high, NYSE and OEX 100 both produced Five new higher closes, Match! Oracle missed earning,

  20. mjtplayer says:

    Good call on GDX yesterday Jedi! Got squeezed/stopped-out of my GDX short intra-day today, will try again around this $26 – $26.50 area but will wait a day or 2 for things to calm down.

    Not a fun day to be short gold and miners 😦

    jedimasterstudent: 1 mjtplayer: 0

  21. Targets for wave 4

    As soon as wave 3 is finished you can draw a channel by connecting the end of wave 1 and wave 3 with a trend line and drawing a parallel line from the end of wave 2. In this way you can project a target for wave 4. Keep in mind that normally the base line from wave 2 will be broken slightly by the price action of wave 4. The base line serves as a minimum target for wave 4.

    Targets for wave 4

    Wave 4 retraces at least 23% of wave 3 but more often reaches a 38.2% retracement. It normally reaches the territory of sub wave 4 of the previous 3rd wave.

    In this case Minor wave 4 should reach 1929 pivot.

  22. Tony

    Plan is still that wave v will hit or get near the pivot of 1973 correct?

    Thank you sir for everything.

  23. llerias7 says:

    Minute V, end of (3) might print 1970´s, right?

  24. soulsurfer says:

    thanks for the update tony! looks like one more move higher would be picture perfect (but not required), that should ideally hit/stab through the upper BB on the daily (now at 1968) to finish minor 3.

    – div on daily RSI5 now evident. Should be enough to get minor 4 going.

  25. bouraq says:

    Golden day:

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