wednesday update

SHORT TERM: another wild FOMC day, DOW +98

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.1%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.1%. US index futures were relatively flat overnight, and the market opened one point above yesterday’s SPX 1942 close. After a dip to SPX 1942 the market rose to 1945 by 10am. The market pulled back to SPX 1939 by 11am, then bounced around heading into the FOMC statement: The market hit SPX 1946 just after the release, pulled back to 1940 a few minutes later, then headed higher. The FED also released this just past 2pm: Heading into the close the SPX hit an all time high at 1958, then dipped to close at 1957.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.70%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.60%. Bonds gained 19 ticks, Crude slipped 10 cents, Gold added $4, and the USD was lower. Medium term support rises to the 1956 and 1929 pivots, with resistance at the 1973 and 2019 pivots. Tomorrow: weekly Jobless claims at 8:30, then the Philly FED and Leading indicators 10am.

The market did its usual daily routine today: flat to lower open, rally in first hour, pullback in second hour, then rally higher in the afternoon. Today’s early choppy action was resolved to the upside a few minutes after the FOMC statement was released. From the Minute iv SPX 1926 low we continue to count three Micro waves for Minute v: 1941-1931-1958. Anticipating a pullback soon for Micro 4, then a rally to higher highs to end Micro 5/Minute v/Minor 3.

Short term support rises to the 1956 and 1929 pivots, with resistance at the 1973 and 2019 pivots. Short term momentum ended the day quite overbought. The short term OEW charts remain positive with the reversal level now SPX 1944. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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86 Responses to wednesday update

  1. tommyboys says:

    Lowest credit stress in history at Fed..

  2. Is today’s gold rally the confirmation of the next big bull trend or just another dead cat bounce? anyone?

  3. lunker1 says:

    JK, not correct
    “Record high SPX should match with record low VIX”

    VIX record low late 2006 and SPX record high was Oct 2007
    VIX bottomed mid 2000 (but not near record low) when SPX was at record high
    VIX record low late 1993 and SPX kept making record highs until early 1994 before a correction.;;

    I think Tony said the VIX should bottom out at least a few months before PRI V. The reason is that the VIX measures volatility (the amount price can fluctuate each day) at it will increase in PRI III, IV and V and the daily price swings get larger. VIX is lowest during the larger wave 3’s when price marches steadily upward.

  4. torehund says:

    IWM from correction bottom 2s in ever declining Dimensions, could squeeze today.

  5. JK1987 says:

    Best rally of the day is not equity, but this one:;
    kudos to jedi’s excellent call, my favorite poster.
    over the limit on posting, done for the day.

    • JK1987 says:

      The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is at 10.42. This is a neutral reading and indicates that market risks appear low.

    • rc1269 says:

      imagine how high it would be if the volatility metric wasn’t inaccurately shown as “neutral”

      • JK1987 says:

        SPX is well at record high.
        VIX record low was at 9, should get to there or below to match record SPX high.
        9 is 10% hair cut from 10.
        Compared to 9, 10.42 is a neutral value, it’s all relative.

      • rc1269 says:

        since VIX data started to be tracked in the early 90s, the mean and median over the 20-year timeframe is 20.06 and 18.48, respectively. The low was 8.89. Only 2.63% of the time has the reading been between 8.89-10.91, which is the lowest end/tail of the entire distribution.
        VIX at 10.51 is empirically not neutral.

      • JK1987 says:

        In the same standard, what’s the mean and median price over the 20-year time frame for SPX?
        With this standard, SPX 1738 this Feb should be extreme over value, but it actually was very oversold and cheap at that time.
        Record high SPX should match with record low VIX, all relative, not absolute values.

        rc is my favorite poster here. I do agree with his “garbage in, garbage out” posts, and almost all of rc’s posts.
        sorry, one extra post. Really done for the day.

      • rc1269 says:

        appreciate the thoughts JK. not sure that SPX is a great comp tho. you’re comparing something that represents an accumulation of aggregate corporate wealth, which necessarily grows with an economy. the VIX will never grow, nor shrink, and though it has no theoretical max, i does have a limited effective bandwidth.
        it’s akin to comparing a rising depth of the ocean with the amplitude of the waves on the surface. cheers and GL!

  6. Jordi Güell says:

    I’ve been following your work for some time now, and I’m amazed for the accuracy of your forecasts. About your forecast on european indexes, I have a question regarding FTSE and Swiss Index. If these indexs fall now, beside with US ( when US indexs finish Primary wave III top), then, do you expect FTSE and Swiss indexs are going to make new highs later? I mean, when after wave IV, US indexs will made new highs with his wave V for finish Primary wave III , do you expect also new highs for FTSE and Swiss index?

  7. CygnetNoir says:

    National History Day live streaming awards ceremony at this very moment – my daughter is one of the finalists representing our state … a whole bunch of awesome kids from all over the country, including territories etc. …

  8. rc1269 says:

    happy thursday everyone. enjoy some sunshine, and the Fed music

  9. the world cup mania roadmap for the coming week:
    $JNUG , $SPY ,$ARTX , $ENG , $FLML , $TWTR , $PLUG

    • mjtplayer says:

      Hey Jedi, short-term I disagree and went short GDX today 😮

      Gold itself shows no fear, new 52-week low in the gold VIX today at 12.77

      In the near-term, GDX daily RSI at 88.72 and the McClellan Oscillator closing at 140.7 at today’s close (extremely overbought). I like to buy panic and extreme oversold conditions, we currently have the mirror image.

      Also, silver is extremely overbought (silver leads gold) at 92.95 on the daily RSI – but no “higher high” ($20). GDX did achieve a higher high today, so we’ll see. Gold has failed thus far at the $1,280 – $1,290 resistance and prior-breakdown, me thinks gold miners are being pulled-up with the general market and not tracking gold – for now. Until gold itself breaks above $1,290 and $1,320 I think miners are risky and heading lower.

      We’re not usually on the opposite side of a trade, that makes things interesting….

      • Thanks, MJT! Great thoughts. We do agree on Silver — not a buy yet — it is still caught in a triangle. Your GDX is focusing on the daily, while I am looking at this for a long-term play. Even at that, look at the 50MA and 200MA on the daily — price is above both. I’m looking at this for a long-term play. Good luck, my friend! As you said, we’re not usually on the opposite side of the trade. What’s with that!? 😉

      • mjtplayer says:

        Yeah, I’m looking out over the next couple/few weeks; not long term.

        End of month/quarter/half-year window dressing has been bearish for PM’s, given the overbought conditions I mentioned it’s just a small short-term trade.

        You think GDX has bottomed long-term? I think gold and miners still heading lower, no bottom yet

    • I usually wait for the monthly 4-12 ema cross to signal a trend change. Looks like we’ll get a weekly cross today though, so you may be right.

    • hrmny358 says:

      Nice move today!

  10. The technicals are aligning for a significant stock market top. Here is the End Is Nigh Checklist, courtesy of Springheel Jack:

    • pooch77 says:

      I love Jacks blog,but he was calling down all week,one of the few times he missed

      • He was a little early, and still is. There may even be the potential for high reward here, given the possibility of a blow-off to eradicate any remaining shorts. But this is very high risk territory. His checklist reinforces the need for current longs to have extraordinary discipline because if you’re wrong at this stage of the process, the trend is unlikely to bail you out. This isn’t 1814. This is 1957. We’re not in Kansas anymore, Toto.

    • pooch77 says:

      agree I would be nervous bull after Friday much less Monday

  11. mjtplayer says:

    Wow, bullish euphoria here.

    New highs today, looks like we top today/tomorrow/Friday in minor 3 and we need a minor 4 pullback to shake-out the weak hands. Perhaps we put-in minor 5 & int 3 around July 4th weekend in yet another “holiday high”.

  12. Tony

    I just read your view on european markets. So I guess the Greek markets is probably one of the only few markets out there which can have a great gain vs rest of markets. Looks interesting , thank you

    • llerias7 says:

      I am on it, also. ATG like in a P3 of SC3! Now, probably in a minor 2 correction…this week might be in a wave B up if does not overcome the 1325 level. Any how it is a market worth to follow, Thanks to Tony only here we have the proper charts to do it.

  13. CygnetNoir says:

    Chi – Chi – Chi- Le – Le – Le

  14. Lee X says:

    Thanks Tony

  15. bouraq says:

    Bears lost another battle:

  16. Tony according to plan wave v could end near 1973 pivot. Looks spot on !

    Thank you

  17. soulsurfer says:

    Thanks for the update Tony! Tick tack tock! It’s the sound of Tony’s count matching the market like clock work. He’s been nailing it.

    Minute v about done, to finish minor 3. Time to take some well earned profits IMHO. Been scaling out many long positions today. – div on daily RSI becoming evident on SPX and many other tickers. Time to become defensive as we get closer and closer to P-III. I Still see mid 1960s as minor 3 high. Minor 4 ideally retracing all of minute v, but 1901 pivot can be on tap too… Though good support in 1915-20 area.

    GL, from Raleigh NC airport!!

  18. torehund says:

    Neg div line on Naz from feb march got smoked out. Nothing but bullish signals, as I see it. The low VIX I think is mainly due to strong hands and very few buyers, so a flatlining scenario for now. However market can rollover to the upside, and thats what I think will happen. Some calles it a squeeze. Bottoms up !

  19. Tony

    Also wanna make sure that you still think GREK is in a wave 3 of 3 ?

    It moved well up today and looks like pullback was done on the gap fill.

  20. Tony. What would be tje target for micro 4pls?

  21. Hi Tony

    Looks like we going to your next upside pivot, congrats!

    I’m wondering when do you think we get the next big sell off in markets ? VIX is near the all time lows , never been this low.

    I guess it is when Primary III tops, where do you see this target?

    Thank you

  22. ocaj2000 says:


    Do you have any thoughts/targets on silver ?


  23. ocaj2000 says:


  24. tommyboy calls it Karma I believe

  25. Ryan Parker says:

    I love how Janet Yellen says she is a bit concerned about complacency and lack of volatility in the markets yet she only need to look in the mirror for the culprit.

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