tuesday update

SHORT TERM: lower open than rally again, DOW +27

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.4%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.3%. US index futures were higher overnight, then dropped after the 8:30 economic reports. The CPI was higher: +0.4% v +0.3%, Building permits were lower: 991k v 1080k, and Housing starts were lower: 1001k v 1072k. The market opened 4 points below yesterday’s SPX 1938 close, bounced around a bit, then started to rally. At 10am the SPX hit 1942, pulled back to 1935 by 11am, and then headed higher again. At 2:30 the SPX hit 1944, then pulled back to close at 1942.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.20%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.20%. Bonds lost 15 ticks, Crude slipped 60 cents, Gold dipped $1, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 1929 and 1901 pivots, with resistance at the 1956 and 1973 pivots. Tomorrow: the FOMC statement at 2pm, and press conference at 2:30.

The market opened lower again today. Then just like yesterday made a low in the opening minutes, rallied in the first hour, pulled back in the second hour, and then moved higher into the afternoon. The market continues to move higher from yesterday’s SPX 1931 low, hitting 1944 today. Just 12 points below the all time high. The Micro wave 1-2-3 count noted yesterday remains the same: 1941-1931-1944. FOMC tomorrow and then the press conference. Should be interesting.

Short term support is at the 1929 pivot and SPX 1916-1919, with resistance at the 1956 and 1973 pivots. Short term momentum ended the day just below overbought. Short term OEW charts flip-flopped again today, ending positive, with the reversal level now SPX 1939. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

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76 Responses to tuesday update

  1. todays rally brought by the federal reserve

  2. rc1269 says:

    vix back down to post-crisis lows
    i continue to be entertained by the Fed’s ‘concern over the lack of volatility in the market.’
    it’s as if i punched somebody in the face and somehow could not figure out why their face hurts
    i think it must take a very smart person to appear that dumb

  3. CygnetNoir says:

    Chi – chi – chi – le – le -le!

  4. jeffbalin says:

    Up like a rocket off 1940 double bottom, micro wave 3

  5. lunker1 says:

    welcome to nano 3 of micro 3

  6. JK1987 says:

    SPY gap filled.
    Action time anyone?

  7. torehund says:

    healthy little squeeze on the RUT. 3 rd around corner counted from correction bottom ?

  8. roadmap for the coming week: /2014/06/18/the-world-cup-mania-roadmap-

  9. rc1269 says:

    wow surprise. no change

  10. torehund says:

    One good hint: if you suddenly become an owner of a parabolically moving breakout Stock, look for upwardly bent ABCs in the correcive phase. Its easy to always look for the normal downward sloping ABCs, and then sell out much too early.

  11. mjtplayer says:

    Shorting GDX right here. Daily RSI overbought and now -div, oscillator’s overbought, no volume on the rally compared to selloff and still no “higher-high”.

    • valunvstr says:

      Good luck, better cover on a pullback. GDX and GDXJ have HUGE IHS forming and overbought can get A LOT more overbought with this kind of a breakout. That is a VERY dangerous trade. Just be quick to cover because both are headed higher. I’m buying pullbacks.

    • uncle10 says:

      Afternoon. had to check in for fed day.
      GDX looks interesting to me also. I agree with valunvstr it does have a very pretty looking bullish chart pattern. It would turn ugly if it closes below $22, but right now it seems a much better risk reward trade as a long than short. ( medium term swing). good luck

  12. Nice cup-with-handle forming on SDS — easy to see where to place STOP and where to expect breakout.

  13. pretty good to assume that Yellen sends the market green today with no problem. central bankers want higher prices

  14. torehund says:

    Quiet day in Bulk shipping(except for NEWL), silence before the storm ? Even in the low Growth period from oct 13 until recently we experienced a 2500 hike in BDI, demand during a real Growth episode will be way higher. If 2500 was the W 1 peak, W 3 peak could easily Reach 7500.

  15. Caldaro your thoughts on GDX?

  16. Tony,
    You have removed all the labels for India’s Sensex. What is the next move, you are counting?

  17. GM all, 1944 .618, 1946 R SPX

  18. Chairman Yellen, will she save all of the puppies, from drowning in pool of debt?


    Currently, trading Apple Inc. No position, just scalping…


  19. Anyone else having problems logging on to Stockcharts.com this morning?

  20. soulsurfer says:

    Thanks for the update Tony! SPX mid-1960s seems to be the sweet spot for this minute v of minor 3. Maybe blow off tomorrow on FED news (or no news). But, the daily AI gave a buys signal today so can’t ignore it: https://soulsurferusa.wordpress.com/2014/06/18/spx-ai-buy-signal-today/

    And, SCTY did it’s thing. Wowzers. I posted last Thursday (https://soulsurferusa.wordpress.com/2014/06/13/scty-can-it-get-going/) a big move was coming (to our screens) and boy did that pan out today!!🙂 Just like TSLA did (tightening BBs always foreshadow a big move!)

    Next up JCP: look at those BBs, combined with an AI-buy signal we may get 3 strikes!?

    GL y’all!!

  21. Thanks Tony for the update.. Will this uptrend (Micro 3 is in progress to be followed by Micro 4 & 5) when gets over will mark completion of Int III?

  22. valunvstr says:

    What’s your take on TLT? looks like another move higher coming.

  23. pooch77 says:

    Tony whats your gut feeling?? We go thru the 1st pivot into 1973 by end of week or tank tomorrow????

  24. bouraq says:

    Bear flags:

    • WTI is slamming against the 2008-2013 downtrend line after breaking out of a coiled weekly five point reversal.

      1998 = EW 0…2008 = EW I…2009 = EW2…4/2011 = EW 3/1…1/2014 = EW 3/2…

      A confluence of technicals (Monthly EW 3/3, weekly breakout above resistance) and fundamentals (Jihad nears Baghdad, a US president who has expressed a desire for higher fossil fuel prices) makes for an explosive upside scenario in oil.

      Brent has broken above multi-year flat top resistance.

      • President Obama, has desire to restore United States of America back to its proper place! last time I checked! Iraq or any other Muslim state was not part of our UNION. America has no business, mingling in the affairs of Muslim states. Period. I support President Obama actions. Its in everyone best interest, get out of those Muslim states. And watch oil prices over time drop.

      • Excellent anti-American Obamabot rant, Amos.

  25. pcskier says:

    Thanks, tony what is your take on $sox? It seems red hot and getting hotter.

  26. JK1987 says:

    Tony Thanks
    We have higher lows, higher highs, the right direction for wave v.

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