monday update

SHORT TERM: gap down opening then choppy day, DOW +5

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.5%. Europe opened lower and lost 0.4%. US index futures were lower as well. At 8:30 the NY FED was reported higher: 19.3 v 19.0. Then at 9:15 Industrial production was reported higher: +0.6% v -0.6%. The market gapped down at the open, nonetheless, to SPX 1931 and then started to rally. At 10am the NAHB was reported higher: 49 v 45. The market continued to rally until 10:30 when the SPX hit 1941, then it started to pullback. At 11am the FED reported this: The pullback continued until 11:30 when the SPX hit the opening low at 1931. Another rally followed taking the market nearly back to the highs of the day, but falling one point short at SPX 1940. Then a pullback to SPX 1934, just past 3pm, was followed with a bounce to end the session at 1938.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.05%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.20%. Bonds were flat, Crude slipped 10 cents, Gold slid $5, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 1929 and 1901 pivots, with resistance at the 1956 and 1973 pivots. Tomorrow: Housing starts, Building permits, and the CPI all at 8:30.

The market gapped down at the open today, and then the BOTs went to work. The expected volatility this week appears to have already begun. After touching SPX 1926 on Thursday the market rallied to 1941 today. Then, without getting too overbought, the market pulled back to SPX 1931. After that another rally began, taking the SPX to 1940. From the Minute iv SPX 1926 low, we are going to call today’s activity as follows: Micro 1 1941, Micro 2 1931, and Micro 3 underway.

Short term support remains at the 1929 pivot and SPX 1916-1919, with resistance at the 1956 and 1973 pivots. Short term momentum hit slightly overbought today, then vacillated around neutral. The short term OEW charts flip-flopped again today, ending positive, with the reversal level now SPX 1936. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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49 Responses to monday update

  1. CygnetNoir says:

    NEWL lol

    • torehund says:

      market cap swings With the tides….Surely market maker plants Nails in the road. No rules aplies.

      • torehund says:

        …more Circus if this allegedly self issuing external Company” Ironridge” has to buy back the shares they have illegally issued to themselves. WS is a Cage of extorters and we all know 🙂

  2. radrian6 says:

    Every time the RUT TICK goes to -200 or lower, it is countered with buying — looks like the RUT is being propped up in a very deliberate fashion. Based on RSI 5, RUT is now overbought in intraday, daily, and weekly time frames and there is some -div on the daily chart. We’re likely to see some volatility over the next few days.

  3. torehund says:

    Ding, ding ding, round 12 very very soon finished in the bulkers ?

  4. Flavia Gomes says:

    Opportunity to purchase TYSON FOODS, if the asset break resistance at 35.66 will get close gap at 37.37. Stop in 34.28.

  5. I’d feel a lot better about spx upside if we had a quick trip down to 1908 or so first. Just sayin…

  6. I have said this and have respected most not to post anymore but the VIX told you market was going higher and continues to say the same thing. There is no fear whatsoever if there was we would not be at all time highs on S&P. I think Gary Kaminsky said it best. Central bankers want higher stock prices that’s the bottom line

  7. mjtplayer says:

    Boring market, nothing doing till 2pm tomorrow

  8. DOW S&P NASDAQ Updated Zigzag Support And Breakout Level VIDEOS –

  9. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony
    SPY ~ Weekly FOMC Pivot @ 194.43 ~ WR1 @ 196.25
    As if I’m telling you something new. 😉

  10. ufa123 says:

    I thank everyone for sharing their thoughts

    Interesting juncture:
    Did anyone notice DJUA yesterday; strong move up on volume. Also the NYSI summation index has turned down, the FTSE has broken down through its 50 dma and TLT is holding.
    I would not be surprised if Minute iv SPX has a little more to go.


  11. Barrick Gold needs to break above it’s 50-day MA to continue it’s rally.

    • torehund says:

      Barrick is at an inflection, I keep my self neutral. However from Bouraqs Charts on Gold it appears that each RSI cycle up and Down gives a net price loss. But this could change rapidly if Gold gets a momentum. Miners are insanely geared to the gold price at this Junction so if one has a super conviction its time to og either way. Or wait for a confirmation and dive in fast….

  12. Here is the chart of XLF:$SPX, the relative strength of the Finance ETF to the $SPX. The RS, after having broken above it’s downtrend line, has declined to backtest it from above, reaching it on Monday. Because this bull market is so greatly finance-driven (interest rates and liquidity), it is important to see the RS of this chart hold above it’s previous downtrend line and move higher.

  13. Tony: From the Minute iv SPX 1926 low, we are going to call today’s activity as follows: Micro 1 1941, Micro 2 1931, and Micro 3 underway.

    Thank you for sharing this insight. Whether it turns out to be right or wrong, it is an intelligent perception with a clear stop-out point.

  14. Anonymous says:

    do you have target in mind before market take elevator down? S&P below 1900? I’m referring to 11%-15% correction you mentioned couple weeks ago.
    keep up the good work and thanks for sharing.

  15. valunvstr says:

    Just eyeballing TLT it looks like, from an EW standpoint it finished a wave down at the 10 week (50 day) and is headed to a likely new high. Another sign that just stinks for stocks. Maybe I am the only one seeing all these “coincidences” but there are just too many to ignore.

  16. valunvstr says:


    Notice the H&S on KRE (Bank Index)? Thoughts? Something smells out there. I know that the waves might suggest otherwise but QQQ has a MASSSIVE divergence on the weekly charts as we’ve made new highs. GDX has a HUGE IHS forming. It feels like too many coincidental set ups are occurring here and they all point to a correction that FINALLY, NO ONE is looking for. Call buying to Put buying is threw the roof as well.

  17. soulsurfer says:

    one more observation: Stockcharts has the R2 pivot at 1966, and the upper bollinger band is at 1966. and flattening, while the lower is moving up. Based on count, fib-extensions, previous 5th wave tops and similar setups (e.g. see March of this year) we may expect a stab through or price getting close to the upper BB for minute v? That be ideal IMHO.

  18. soulsurfer says:

    Thanks for the update tony! minute v already on the way. it has no time to waste.

    micro 1 and 2 suggest 1961 for micro 5 (minute v) using a 2.00x extension of 1, measured from 2. Right around what i suggested yesterday (1963) 🙂 That said, as requested here’s my post from yesterday in a plot (a picture says more than a thousand words). BUT, again, this is the plan, market will have to proof it right.

    ps: last Thursday I suggested TSLA was getting ready for a big move based on OEW count and Bollinger Bands. Not a day to early, ’cause it’s up 8+ % today! 😉
    Man, it’s awesome when one gets it right now and then. Again, Tony thanks for teaching me OEW.

  19. Hi Tony

    I bought some GREK today at 23.33 – as you mentioned it filled gap , if it is a wave 3 would you then expect pullback to be done soon on GREK before it resume higher ? It should not pullback much more correct?

    Thank you for everything !

  20. bouraq says:

    Channels broke up:

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