friday update

SHORT TERM: market rebounds, DOW +41

Overnight the Asian markets were flat. Europe opened lower and lost 0.4%. US index futures were lower overnight, and at 8:30 the PPI was reported lower: -0.2% v +0.6%. The market opened three points above yesterday’s SPX 1930 close, but immediately pulled back to 1928 by 10am. At 10am Consumer sentiment was reported lower: 81.2 v 81.9. The market then rallied to SPX 1937 by 11am. Then after a pullback to SPX 1933 by 1:30, it rallied to 1937 again just past 3pm. A pullback to SPX 1931 followed nearing the close. But a late rally ended the week at SPX 1936.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.30%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.30%. Bonds lost 8 ticks, Crude rose 25 cents, Gold added $3, and the USD was flat. Medium term support remains at the 1929 and 1901 pivots, with resistance at the 1956 and 1973 pivots. Last night the FED reported an increase in the Monetary base: $4.007tn v $3.933tn. Today the WLEI was reported lower: 54.5% v 54.8%.

The market opened higher today, producing the best rally since the decline began (1926-1933). Then it pulled back to SPX 1928, and again produced an even a better rally (1928-1937). This signaled to us that Minute iv may have completed at yesterday’s SPX 1926 low, and we posted a tentative green label. When the market rallies above 1937, we will feel fairly confident the low is in and Minute v is underway.

Short term support is at the 1929 pivot and SPX 1916-1919, with resistance at the 1956 and 1973 pivots. Short term momentum rose above neutral from yesterday’s extreme oversold level. The short term OEW charts turned positive late, and the reversal level is now SPX 1935. Best to your weekend!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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33 Responses to friday update

  1. Tony

    GREK filled the gap you mentioned few days ago, Im thinking about going long Greece if they are possible in a wave 3 up. Do you think it would be a good place here on GREK to go long or do you have any other levels on GREK you find better ?

    Thank you so much for everything

  2. valunvstr says:

    I know you are more about EW counts and oscillators but do you see the HUGE IHS that is forming of GDX? It seems like a trade to buy and wait and the upside from her if completed is 50%.

    • tony caldaro says:

      Yes, see that too Val
      Getting close to confirming an uptrend too

      • valunvstr says:

        Is it in a bear market and it is setting up for a strong bear market rally? Or back to bull?

      • valunvstr says:

        So, your observation about GDX forming an IHS with a possible uptrend might jsut be a violent upward move in a bear market. I’m trying to figure out if it is tradable. It looks like a big upside breakout is coming and worth a trade. Wondering your thoughts.

      • tony caldaro says:

        my thoughts? GDX is close to an uptrend

      • valunvstr says:

        Sorry for the additional questions…because I have HUGE tax implications because I’ve been long the broad market for quite sometime, I was wondering the magnitude of the uptrend? Any time and price projection? THANKS!

      • tony caldaro says:

        gold or the general market

      • valunvstr says:

        I am referring to GDX. I own the broad equity market with a long term capital gain consequence. However, GDX looks like an IHS with a target 50% higher. Wondering if you see the possible GDX uptrend making the 50% move the pattern is suggesting, even if within a longer term bear market? Since I am selling a piece of the equity broad market to buy it, a larger move would need to occur to make sense given the tax consequence. Thanks again.

  3. hrmny358 says:

    GDX clearing resistance. Nice break of a trend-line.
    Rut looks like a perfect bull flag on the daily.
    Semi’s look like they took one step back to make a leap higher.
    Only worry is $BANK is not participating nor confirming.
    Looking forward to the Saturday morning ritual.
    Tony one thought, last weekend report you wrote “Overbought conditions like this usually lead, at some point, to a significant pullback.” 30 points or 1.5% is just a small dent. More to come? or maybe divergences have to build for something more significant.
    Thank you for all your insight.

  4. ariez5 says:

    In the past I think you wrote that you kept your personal funds long in a bull market, hedging them at particular times. I hope I am not if asking you to divulge proprietary information when I ask, during a bull market, what level of wave do you hedge? Minor/Intermediate/ major/ primary?
    Thanks for all you do.

  5. torehund says:

    Good weekend to all, bulls and bears !

  6. valunvstr says:

    I would think EW’ers would be looking for an ABC for iv wave. houry charts got quickly oversold yesterday but meaningfully recovered despite a small bounce. Would lead me to believe that a lower low between 1900-1920 would create the bullish divergence on the hourly to complete an ABC.

  7. lunker1 says:

    Thx Tony great job

  8. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony ~ Enjoy your Weekend

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