SHORT TERM: gap down opening, DOW -102
Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.1%. European markets opened lower and lost 0.8%. US index futures were lower overnight, and the market gapped down to SPX 1943 at the open. The SPX had closed at 1951 yesterday. The market bounced to SPX 1946 by 10am, hit 1942 by 10:30, then hit 1946 again by 12:30. At 2pm the Budget deficit was reported lower: -$130.0bn v -$138.7bn. At 2:30 the SPX hit 1940, then it tried to rally. By 3:30 the SPX hit 1946 for the third time today, then pulled back to close at 1944.
For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.50%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.10%. Bonds gained 3 ticks, Crude added 10 cents, Gold was flat, and the USD was flat. Medium term support remains at the 1929 and 1901 pivots, with resistance at the 1956 and 1973 pivots. Tomorrow: weekly Jobless claims, Retail sales and Export/Import prices at 8:30, then Business inventories at 10am.
The market gapped down at the open today, bounced around, and then hit SPX 1940. All along it appeared the growth momentum stocks were somewhat still supporting the general market. Thus far we have had a 16 point pullback from the SPX 1956 high. But it still appears to be rather short to call a potential completion of a Minute wave iv. In fact, the NDX/NAZ have hardly pulled back at all. We are still expecting this pullback to enter the 1929 pivot range.
Short term support is at the 1929 and 1901 pivots, with resistance at the 1956 and 1973 pivots. Short term momentum did hit oversold today at the low, the bounced. The short term OEW charts are negative with the reversal level now SPX 1945. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend
LONG TERM: bull market
Thanks Tony
DJI chart looks painful! Test of LTL on ED @ 16,600 possible?
GLTA
still looks choppy
Tony,
it looks like OEW does not track the biotechs ( $ibb )? Do you track an equivalent , I could not find ? nice 61.8 retrace , the group has been on fire the last several years before the most recent hit.
ICPT
Fear & Greed Index
Extreme Greed now at 82
http://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/?iid=H_INV_QL
Perfect oew call.
Right at perfect 1929 pivot, Minute iv.
time to start looking for a low?
VIX up 10%, where is the fear coming from?
Me think so. Great call on the further downside Tony! looking at the TIs, it sure looks like the market finished a 3rd of a 3rd wave (RSI, MACD, MACD-histo, FSTO MFI etc all were at extreme readings). Assuming minute v=i=30 points, then we can expect the SPX to knock on the 1973 pivot for minor 3. That would likely give a nice – div on the daily RSI and MACD for minor 4. Still means minor 4, 5, and intermediate iv, v left…
A s/t bounce may be in play from here but this wave iv still has some unfinished business to say 1920ish or your 1901 pivot support
JK the VIX has nothing to do with fear. It measures volatility. Volatility is the amount that price can change in a given day. The higher the VIX the greater the amount price can change in a day.
http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/VIX
what happens if 1929 does not hold?
1901 possibly
check that … real good support between 1916 and 1925
unless the algo’s pull their bid.
can’t trade what ifs
$rvx the volitility index for $rut just broke its downtrend line establish in mid April.
So what might minute 4 do? Take a look at the end of February beginning of March to see what minor 4 did. dropped fast from one pivot down to the next pivot and about matched the prior 4. Note micro 4 is at 1919
Copper is nearing the important $3 support area, almost completed 5-waves down and is very oversold short-term. Covering copper short and taking gains, will look to re-short up around $3.12 – $3.15 in a potential RS of a H&S pattern.
If copper fails around $3.12 – $3.15 and tanks lower below $3, the H&S pattern projects a minimum downside target of $2.80/lb.
GM all, The old EDT TL was hit this morn, enough for A of iv? http://t.co/DkmiQEGUKA
nice call on 1955.55
is this another =)
Thx, Lucky but I needed this one Tony.
It’s always nice to get lucky every once in a while H D
Happy Pops Day to you also !
That 89EMA might just be a target on the 60 minute….
What do TL, CL. and X-Wave mean?
TL is trendline.
CL is light crude.
X wave is also a B wave within a larger ABC.
My -> means that price went from the first number to the second number.
Traditional Elliot wave uses an X wave to connect to smaller ABC’s. I like Tony’s simpler use which is just that everything is in ABC. Smaller ABCs within larger ones
Thanks, lunker. I thought -> might mean direction of price change, but I couldn’t correlate the changes you listed to the point extensions you put in the left column (i.e.)
SPX 141.4 ext of 1576 -> 667 = 1953
1576 -> 667 was the $SPX bear market of 2007-2009, but don’t know what 141.4 is an extension of.
Light Crude is listed on SC.com and elsewhere as Crude, Light so that one makes sense. I probably should have been able to infer what TL meant from context of the chart posted where it was used but I didn’t.
Thanks to your explanation, the X-Wave is no longer an x-factor (unknown) to me.
Thankd Tony
X wave potentially completed or completing in CL
Nice job on SPX my friend you’re a day trading hack in disguise 😉
Lee, thanks on Crude
Just following the squiggles 😉
nice work Dr. CL!
Have a great Father’s Day weekend everyone.
Tony, indian stocks continue to march higher! I know you consider it as bear market rally (^bse) but this year did climb over 20% already. Any idea a possible target for sensex?
not recently no
Interesting.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/101754266?trknav=homestack:topnews:5
Couple of kinks added to the market. Cantor loses. Irag under assult and could fall in the next few days. Not sure we got much for our two trillion dollars, except we removed a bad guy. Oil prices sky rocketing. Tony had said war could end this uptrend. Taking over oil fields may be worse then war. But then again this market has been fearless.
Tony has said, war could end this bull market
I believe You had said, In previous bull markets the only thing that caused them to end was war. If you didn’t say that, I apologies.
was only referring to this bull market
$SPX has lost 18.50 points from it’s 1955.55 high. It looks like it’s curtains for the hoped-for 9-wave minute 3 extension.
exit stage right
And no encore, either.
Will this H&S play out on the RUSSELL? Too early to tell yet — it will at least fill that little gap below, probably today. Disclaimer: Sold my IWM day before yesterday (was only expected to be short-term play) — risk/reward up here at these levels.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$RUT&p=D&yr=0&mn=11&dy=0&id=p28826230532&a=353435598&listNum=7
thx Jedi
Tony, thoughts on whether gold has started a C rally? Volume looks terrible to me.
GDX is acting okay, but not sure about Gold yet
Thanks, Tony! GDX is one I am personally watching — no buy yet for me, though, until price gets above the 10 week EMA.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=W&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p45473693708&a=348372266&listNum=7
There it is. Jedi do you need a close above the 10 wk EMA? on a weekly basis??
I am long from the June 5 close. Tested my patience, hoping it might be a long term play.
S&P Must Break B Wave Level To Setup Con’t Of W3 http://wavegenius.com/sp-500-forecast-june-12-2014/
Tony, Still think we can get the Minor 3 and Int III before the EOM June? Thank you.
moving slowly, but yes
fibs to watch
SPX 141.4 ext of 1576 -> 667 = 1953
INDU 127.2 ext of 16588 -> 15341 = 16933
NAZ 200.0 ext of 2861.51 -> 1266 = 4432
NAZ 113.0 ext of 4371 – > 3946 = 4427
What does this -> mean?
Tony how big of a pull back you forcast… I read on investing.com that you looking for 15% decline before pushing for all time high.
Big fan of your Nick
Big fan of yours! new tablet 🙂
Nick
After PRI III completes
Tony, sorry to ask too many questions but I have a few:
1- for PRI III to complete are you looking for specific levels/timeframe?
2-Market will correct as soon as QE ends and rates hikes starts (QE created the mother of all bubbles AKA stock market
3-as a small investor we love pullbacks when good companies stock selling for steep discounts
thanks for your work
1. for PRI III we need a downtrend, then a new uptrend to new highs
2. typically market starts to correct about two months before QE ends
cheers and good luck!
target remains 1962
http://jobjas.wordpress.com/
…lets get hold of some water from that river.
.
The McClellan Oscillator has remained positive during this pullback and thus the Summation Index has continued to post positive gaps. If the McOs does not decline further and then the A-D line posts some +1000 to +1500 days, there would be support in the SI for a 9 wave minute 3. Any further weakness from here would nullify that possibility and confirm Tony’s preferred scenario of an $SPX decline to the 1929 pivot, with my $RUT projection being 1143 (based upon my Mon, June 9 post).
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYA&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p83733137120
George 1143 on rut would make nice bottom on 2 hour chart whilist weekly will still be moving up,think would be good entry point to see new before July opex
New high before july opex
Pooch, consider a few things with regard to your proposed new high for the RUT prior to July OpEx. First, minute iv is underway and if it takes the RUT to 1144 support, minute v would have to stretch 70 points to reach a new high. It’s more likely that minor 4 hits the markets before July OpEx and takes the typical 3.5 to 6.5% from the RUT.
My cycle work is looking for a RUT low near July 9 which is close to your Bradley turn date of July 16 — is it possible that the July 16 turn date is a low instead of a high?
Also consider that the RUT ran up 97 points (9%) from the 1082 low and should consolidate ahead of further significant gains. Another 50+ points right now seems pretty extreme.
These are just some thoughts — the RUT is quite bullish right now so anything is possible.
Thanks Rad ,points to consider
Rad,
FYI – A good guy I follow on another blog has been calling for a mid-July low, and a mid-September low.
Jparkins, which blog?
Elliott Wave Trader
This rally is tired:
$SPX $DOW $RUT $FTSE $GOLD $GBPUSD $AUDUSD
http://www.tradingchannels.co.uk/2014/06/this-rally-is-tired.html
Thanks Bouraq. Great charts.
Tony Thanks
Will be looking for 1929 +- 7 for Minute iv.
1946 was 38.2%, should be heading lower.
Missing following part in today’s update, I can refer to yesterday’s.
CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp
thx
JK How are u getting 38.2%. =1946. Minute ii to minute iii was 1862-1956=94 23.6% retrace would be about 21 points. I expect min pull bak to be 21 points based on Fib.
Thans Tony! Momo stocks look indeed (still) bullish. For example, TSLA about to fire higher? TWTR bucking the trend of the past 2-3 days? FB nice intra day reversal, etc.
Re: market. In the weekend update you wrote “Then the market generally makes a larger pullback, i.e. 15 to 25 points, before the uptrend resumes.” Hence, 16 points does for the bill, albeit just. But, there appears also a slight + div on hourly RSI at 1940 low… Enough for a minute v ?
do not think so
Tony, in Feb (see 60 min chart), minute iv did not have much of a pullback — in fact, it looks like it finished at or above the top of minute iii !?!
true Mike,
but most of the pullbacks during that uptrend were quite small
not this one
soul,
You meant Enough for a minute iv?
I had the same thought earlier.
But Tony taught and corrected me on with oew wave rules on that count in one on one tutoring, the conclusion was not probable for minute iv.
oew tutoring is a must join if you have not.
https://caldaro.wordpress.com/2014/05/31/oew-tutoring-87/
JK – I am a proud and honored OEW graduate! 🙂 But haven’t been able to look at the waves of this decline in detail. I only noticed that 16 is within the 15-25 predicted range and could therefore qualify. This may have well only been a of iv, now in b with c to follow.
Ps: with “enough for a minute v?” I meant if the slight + div on hourly RSI would be enough to start minute v.
thanks Tony, do you think there would be another early am pull-back ahead of reports?
that would be just a guess on my part
I guess i will be the first. Thanks Tony.