wednesday update

SHORT TERM: gap down opening, DOW -102

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.1%. European markets opened lower and lost 0.8%. US index futures were lower overnight, and the market gapped down to SPX 1943 at the open. The SPX had closed at 1951 yesterday. The market bounced to SPX 1946 by 10am, hit 1942 by 10:30, then hit 1946 again by 12:30. At 2pm the Budget deficit was reported lower: -$130.0bn v -$138.7bn. At 2:30 the SPX hit 1940, then it tried to rally. By 3:30 the SPX hit 1946 for the third time today,ย then pulled back to close at 1944.

For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.50%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.10%. Bonds gained 3 ticks, Crude added 10 cents, Gold was flat, and the USD was flat. Medium term support remains at the 1929 and 1901 pivots, with resistance at the 1956 and 1973 pivots. Tomorrow: weekly Jobless claims, Retail sales and Export/Import prices at 8:30, then Business inventories at 10am.

The market gapped down at the open today, bounced around, and then hit SPX 1940. All along it appeared the growth momentum stocks were somewhat still supporting the general market. Thus far we have had a 16 point pullback from the SPX 1956 high. But it still appears to be rather short to call a potential completion of a Minute wave iv. In fact, the NDX/NAZ have hardly pulled back at all. We are still expecting this pullback to enter the 1929 pivot range.

Short term support is at the 1929 and 1901 pivots, with resistance at the 1956 and 1973 pivots.ย Short term momentum did hit oversold today at the low, the bounced. The short term OEW charts are negative with the reversal level now SPX 1945. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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83 Responses to wednesday update

  1. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony
    DJI chart looks painful! Test of LTL on ED @ 16,600 possible?

  2. oneandonlyuniverse says:


    it looks like OEW does not track the biotechs ( $ibb )? Do you track an equivalent , I could not find ? nice 61.8 retrace , the group has been on fire the last several years before the most recent hit.

  3. JK1987 says:

    Perfect oew call.
    Right at perfect 1929 pivot, Minute iv.

  4. pcskier says:

    $rvx the volitility index for $rut just broke its downtrend line establish in mid April.

  5. lunker1 says:

    So what might minute 4 do? Take a look at the end of February beginning of March to see what minor 4 did. dropped fast from one pivot down to the next pivot and about matched the prior 4. Note micro 4 is at 1919

  6. mjtplayer says:

    Copper is nearing the important $3 support area, almost completed 5-waves down and is very oversold short-term. Covering copper short and taking gains, will look to re-short up around $3.12 – $3.15 in a potential RS of a H&S pattern.

    If copper fails around $3.12 – $3.15 and tanks lower below $3, the H&S pattern projects a minimum downside target of $2.80/lb.

  7. GM all, The old EDT TL was hit this morn, enough for A of iv?

    • tony caldaro says:

      nice call on 1955.55
      is this another =)

    • What do TL, CL. and X-Wave mean?

      • lunker1 says:

        TL is trendline.
        CL is light crude.
        X wave is also a B wave within a larger ABC.

      • lunker1 says:

        My -> means that price went from the first number to the second number.

      • lunker1 says:

        Traditional Elliot wave uses an X wave to connect to smaller ABC’s. I like Tony’s simpler use which is just that everything is in ABC. Smaller ABCs within larger ones

      • Thanks, lunker. I thought -> might mean direction of price change, but I couldn’t correlate the changes you listed to the point extensions you put in the left column (i.e.)
        SPX 141.4 ext of 1576 -> 667 = 1953
        1576 -> 667 was the $SPX bear market of 2007-2009, but don’t know what 141.4 is an extension of.
        Light Crude is listed on and elsewhere as Crude, Light so that one makes sense. I probably should have been able to infer what TL meant from context of the chart posted where it was used but I didn’t.
        Thanks to your explanation, the X-Wave is no longer an x-factor (unknown) to me.

  8. Lee X says:

    Thankd Tony
    X wave potentially completed or completing in CL
    Nice job on SPX my friend you’re a day trading hack in disguise ๐Ÿ˜‰

  9. llerias7 says:

    Tony, indian stocks continue to march higher! I know you consider it as bear market rally (^bse) but this year did climb over 20% already. Any idea a possible target for sensex?

  10. $SPX has lost 18.50 points from it’s 1955.55 high. It looks like it’s curtains for the hoped-for 9-wave minute 3 extension.

  11. Will this H&S play out on the RUSSELL? Too early to tell yet — it will at least fill that little gap below, probably today. Disclaimer: Sold my IWM day before yesterday (was only expected to be short-term play) — risk/reward up here at these levels.$RUT&p=D&yr=0&mn=11&dy=0&id=p28826230532&a=353435598&listNum=7

  12. ariez5 says:

    Tony, thoughts on whether gold has started a C rally? Volume looks terrible to me.

  13. perceval7 says:

    Tony, Still think we can get the Minor 3 and Int III before the EOM June? Thank you.

  14. lunker1 says:

    fibs to watch
    SPX 141.4 ext of 1576 -> 667 = 1953
    INDU 127.2 ext of 16588 -> 15341 = 16933

    NAZ 200.0 ext of 2861.51 -> 1266 = 4432
    NAZ 113.0 ext of 4371 – > 3946 = 4427

  15. Anonymous says:

    Tony how big of a pull back you forcast… I read on that you looking for 15% decline before pushing for all time high.
    Big fan of your Nick

    • Anonymous says:

      Big fan of yours! new tablet ๐Ÿ™‚

      • tony caldaro says:

        After PRI III completes

      • Anonymous says:

        Tony, sorry to ask too many questions but I have a few:
        1- for PRI III to complete are you looking for specific levels/timeframe?
        2-Market will correct as soon as QE ends and rates hikes starts (QE created the mother of all bubbles AKA stock market
        3-as a small investor we love pullbacks when good companies stock selling for steep discounts
        thanks for your work

        • tony caldaro says:

          1. for PRI III we need a downtrend, then a new uptrend to new highs
          2. typically market starts to correct about two months before QE ends
          cheers and good luck!

  16. torehund says:

    …lets get hold of some water from that river.

  17. ocaj2000 says:


  18. The McClellan Oscillator has remained positive during this pullback and thus the Summation Index has continued to post positive gaps. If the McOs does not decline further and then the A-D line posts some +1000 to +1500 days, there would be support in the SI for a 9 wave minute 3. Any further weakness from here would nullify that possibility and confirm Tony’s preferred scenario of an $SPX decline to the 1929 pivot, with my $RUT projection being 1143 (based upon my Mon, June 9 post).$NYA&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p83733137120

    • pooch77 says:

      George 1143 on rut would make nice bottom on 2 hour chart whilist weekly will still be moving up,think would be good entry point to see new before July opex

      • pooch77 says:

        New high before july opex

      • radrian6 says:

        Pooch, consider a few things with regard to your proposed new high for the RUT prior to July OpEx. First, minute iv is underway and if it takes the RUT to 1144 support, minute v would have to stretch 70 points to reach a new high. It’s more likely that minor 4 hits the markets before July OpEx and takes the typical 3.5 to 6.5% from the RUT.

        My cycle work is looking for a RUT low near July 9 which is close to your Bradley turn date of July 16 — is it possible that the July 16 turn date is a low instead of a high?

        Also consider that the RUT ran up 97 points (9%) from the 1082 low and should consolidate ahead of further significant gains. Another 50+ points right now seems pretty extreme.

        These are just some thoughts — the RUT is quite bullish right now so anything is possible.

      • pooch77 says:

        Thanks Rad ,points to consider

      • jparkins10 says:

        FYI – A good guy I follow on another blog has been calling for a mid-July low, and a mid-September low.

      • Jparkins, which blog?

      • jparkins10 says:

        Elliott Wave Trader

  19. bouraq says:

    This rally is tired:

  20. JK1987 says:

    Tony Thanks
    Will be looking for 1929 +- 7 for Minute iv.
    1946 was 38.2%, should be heading lower.

    Missing following part in today’s update, I can refer to yesterday’s.

  21. Thans Tony! Momo stocks look indeed (still) bullish. For example, TSLA about to fire higher? TWTR bucking the trend of the past 2-3 days? FB nice intra day reversal, etc.

    Re: market. In the weekend update you wrote “Then the market generally makes a larger pullback, i.e. 15 to 25 points, before the uptrend resumes.” Hence, 16 points does for the bill, albeit just. But, there appears also a slight + div on hourly RSI at 1940 low… Enough for a minute v ?

  22. Kisshu2 says:

    thanks Tony, do you think there would be another early am pull-back ahead of reports?

  23. I guess i will be the first. Thanks Tony.

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