tuesday update

SHORT TERM: quiet day as pullback continues, DOW +3

Overnight the Asian markets ended mixed. Europe opened lower but ended mixed as well. US index futures were lower overnight, and the market opened three points below yesterday’s SPX 1951 close. After a small bounce to SPX 1950 in the opening minutes, the market pulled back to 1945 by 10am. Also at 10am Wholesale inventories were reported higher: +1.1% v +1.1%. The market rallied back to SPX 1950 by 11am, and then went into a three point trading range. At 3:30 the SPX ticked up out of the range to 1951 and closed there.

For the day the SPX/DOW were mixed, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.10%. Bonds lost 7 ticks, Crude added 15 cents, Gold rallied $7, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 1929 and 1901 pivots, with resistance at the 1956 and 1973 pivots. Tomorrow there is nothing on the economic calendar.

The market opened lower today, dipped to SPX 1945, then tried to rally for the rest of the day. It appeared many of the momentum growth stocks were supporting the market. Nevertheless, the market has now pulled back 11 points from its all time high. This is the largest pullback since mid-May, when the market dropped from SPX 1886-1868. While stock charts was down all day, and our usual indicators were unavailable, it still appears we have a Minute iv pullback underway. Still expecting support around the 1929 pivot range.

Short term support remains at the 1929 and 1901 pivots, with resistance at the 1956 and 1973 pivots. Short term momentum was unavailable, as was the short term trend information. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

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61 Responses to tuesday update

  1. Hello guys good opportunity to get in TSN (TYSON FOODS) if 36.20 breaks asset may go close gap on STOP IN 37.34 35.60


  2. rc1269 says:

    For those who inquired- the mother in law indicator is alive and well and blaring at full volume. The pleads for upping the portfolio risk level are reaching a fever pitch.
    Memories are very short

  3. Tony target for wave iv is around 1929 pivot true ?

  4. JK1987 says:

    QQQ just made a new high.
    SPX Minute iii still is proceeding?
    Maybe Minute iii will complete when Naz makes a new high?

  5. Ryan Parker says:

    Has anyone noticed that the semiconductors as measured by the $SOX haven’t posted a negative close since May 20th? Up 14 sessions in a row and counting.

  6. Tony

    In a wave 3 , the pullbacks are quite small correct ?

    Does this mean we should not expect any large pullbacks on GREK (if it is in a wave 3 of course ) ? or am I totally wrong ?

    Thank you

  7. JK1987 says:

    Minute iv here at 1942?
    EMA (34) support, RSI oversold.
    13 handles largest pullback in a month.

  8. thanks for the update tony, I am on the road again so hard to follow intra-day, but futures suggest indeed minute iii is in and now in iv. Great call!!!

  9. Starting to look like an emotional period is upon us!

  10. jparkins10 says:

    Picked this up on another blog:

    ‘Rand Paul and Reid working on bill to allow companies to re patriot money from overseas with a tax rate of 10% or less. Could pass this summer and tied into a transportation bill so dem’s get their bill and GOP gets their bill. If this does pass see you in the 2000’s this summer. Thinking the big correction in the fall from much higher levels.

    Biggest story of the year imo’

  11. SPX likely to make wave iv around 1929 support , looks like the plan Tony

    Good one, Thank you !

  12. Hi Tony

    What levels do we need to break to confirm large primary wave 3 top ?

    If we break below 1900 then that would be a sign of a top and correction to start ?

  13. Hi Tony,
    I have noticed that surprise upsets in U.S.political arenas can tend to stir the pot.. We could see a big sell off..I am thinking down to SPX 1901.

  14. timing101 says:

    Tony, latest from Stockcharts.

    Update @11:30pm Eastern – We’ve completed our data updates for today (such as they are) and I’m spending the evening in our datacenter with a very knowledgable “tech” from the circuit provider. He is gradually drilling down into the private network that is used to get data into our datafeed servers. So far no luck finding the culprit but I think it is only a matter of time… Now, where’s my caffine?

    To clarify on my comments below concerning Intraday data (1-,5-,10-,60-minute bars, etc.): Right now, we do not think we will be able to retrieve Intraday data for today (June 10th) at all. That said, tomorrow we will ask our data vendor if they can provide it from an alternate server to try and “fill the gap” in the charts.

    – Chip

  15. lunker1 says:

    Hi Ariez
    re TLT selloff fueling Pri III…I meant SPX’s Pri III. Bonds selling off maybe helps equities continue to extend. TLT topped May 29 and perhaps this helped SPX cut right thru the 1929 pivot. if they continue to sell then maybe SPX continues to levitate and only correct in time but not much in price.

    • ariez5 says:

      I guess we are thinking different time frames and levels. The last two times $TNX got to 2.9/3.0 the SPX sold off, because bonds look fairly valued at that level in an economy with under 3% nominal growth and where the competition – stocks – are valued at nosebleed levels. Higher rates also reduce profit margins, which are already compressing. I think bonds may sell off now, but I would rather guess stocks rise in spite of, not because of this. I think a bond selloff would eventually cause a sharp stock decline (P IV?)

  16. torehund says:


    Bearish red pill site a Heavy one uuhuuu, these emotions dont signal top in sentiment.

  17. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony
    Some real nice setups going into the Manic Stage. Should be interesting.
    GLTA & Don’t get caught with both hands in the Cookie Jar. 😉

  18. ocaj2000 says:


    • I thought tomorrow would be a quite day. Number 2 in the house Eric cantor lost tonight in his state primary election by 12 percentage points to a tea party candidate. Shocking in my opinion. We shall see if it means anything positive or negative tomorrow.

      • mjtplayer says:

        Same thing happened in Europe a couple weeks ago – the people voting out the establishment and moving towards 3rd parties. Doesn’t matter if it’s left or right, vote them all out.

  19. When stockcharts.com goes down, freestockcharts.com works OK as a backup.

  20. Tony

    Could Gold still be making a b bottom before wave c up into next months ?

    Looks like gold bottomed out , any clue ?

    Also you need to look at your DRYS count ,, DRYS made a sharp spike higher lately,, so what is the count on this one ?

    Thank you

  21. bouraq says:

    Today’s post: Still buying the dips
    $SPX $FTSE $OIL $GOLD $EURUSD $AUDUSD $GBPUSD http://www.tradingchannels.co.uk/2014/06/still-buying-dips.html

  22. torehund says:

    Takker for innsatsen Tony !

  23. Tony

    On GREK , it looks like a pullback coming , where do you think would be a good spot long on GREK if it pulls back from here ?

    Thank you

  24. Lee X says:

    Thanks Tony

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