friday update

SHORT TERM: another day another new high, DOW +88

Overnight the Asian markets gained -0.3%. FED governor Powell gave a speech: Europe opened higher and gained 0.6%. US index futures were higher overnight. At 8:30 monthly Payrolls came in as expected, but lower: 217k v 273k, and the Unemployment rate was unchanged at 6.3%. The market opened four points above yesterday’s SPX 1940 record close and continued higher. Just past 11am the SPX hit 1949, and then went into a three point trading range. At 3pm Consumer credit was reported higher: $26.8bn v $17.5bn. Heading into the close the market rallied back to SPX 1949 and closed there.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.50%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.50%. Bonds lost 6 ticks, Crude rose 30 cents, Gold was flat, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 1929 and 1901 pivots, with resistance at the 1956 and 1973 pivots. Last night the FED reported a decline in the M1-multiplier: 0.705 v 0.712. Today the WLEI was reported lower: 54.8% v 55.3%, and Long term investor sentiment declined: 55.3% v 57.0%.

The market opened higher today and reached the OEW 1956 pivot range, only one day after leaving the 1929 pivot range. Nice rally. After hitting SPX 1949 around 11am the market stalled, and traded sideways for the rest of the day. Our internal count of this uptrend, from the April SPX 1814 low, remains the same: Micro 5, of Minute iii, of Minor 3. While the NAZ still has some work to do to make a new high. The SPX is quite overbought on several timeframes, and is heading towards a couple of overhead Fibonacci clusters. More on this in the weekend update.

Short term support remains at the 1929 and 1901 pivots, with resistance a the 1956 and 1973 pivots. Short term momentum ended extremely overbought. The short term OEW charts remain positive with the reversal level now SPX 1943. Best to your weekend!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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25 Responses to friday update

  1. CygnetNoir says:

    For those who are tempted to view NEWL as an “investment,” here is the weekly dilution report:
    I’ve always said that fundamentals do not matter until they do.

  2. Thanks for the input, Jedi – will heed your advice.

    Have an oppty available whereby you could make 50-80K part-time, i.e., without quitting your day job, just for providing certain insights about stocks and/or indices. Feel free to email me at if interested. Have a nice evening & weekend!

  3. About all the jobs being gained back from the recession, It has only taken 7 years to gain back the lost jobs, but 10 million more people have been added to the nation’s population in that time. Report also shows over 40% of the jobs are low paying service sector jobs. The job participation is down in the low 60%. Hasn’t been that low since the late 70′s. The “true” physical unemployment rate is 0ver 12%. Unbiased Opinions? Lol, no really any thoughts.

  4. perceval7 says:

    Hi Tony, Sorry, what does blue line mean in your VIX comment??? TIA!

  5. JK1987 says:

    Tony Thanks
    1.1% to go for Naz, until then, it’s not done.

  6. torehund says:

    Thanks for Your blog Tony !
    Up and forewards With the US, and dont bet against it.

  7. llerias7 says:

    Tony, looking to your charts it seems the italian MIB might stop climbing around 22200…but the momentum in the index looks to surpass that mark…probably the D wave should end at higher levels…(?)

  8. looks like the VIX wants to go to 0. LOL Only $1.44 away from its all time low. A+ bulls

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